Iran Analysis: Losing Control of the Presidential Election?

Far from getting a clearer picture on how the regime is going to organise the Presidential election, the weekend's developments have confirmedat least seven factions:

1. The Supreme Leader's Committee, which has yet to name a candidate;

2. The "Followers of Imam's Line and Leadership Front", with its four Presidential candidates;

3. The Rafsanjani camp;

4. President Ahmadinejad's camp, who would like to put forth Ahmadinejad's right-hand man, Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, but may have to settle for Minister of Roads Ali Nikzad;

5. The "hard-line" Endurance Front, including leading cleric Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi, which has been relatively quiet and has not announced a preference;

6. Other conservative and principlist candidates, the most vocal of whom has been Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of the Expediency Council and former commander of the Revolutionary Guards;

7. The reformists, some of whom will participate in the election but who are unlikely to have a high-profile candidate unless former President Mohammad Khatami stands and who have been crippled by the regime's restrictions.

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Iran Special: The Stalled Nuclear Talks --- Why Tehran Cannot Give Up Its Right to Enrichment

Funeral of assassinated nuclear scientist Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan, 13 January 2012

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Iran's stance that its people have the right to enrich uranium has become more than a negotiating position. It is an important element of the Islamic Republic's identity and an issue of national pride. A central symbol of the struggle against the US and the West, the dedication to that right is beyond the black-and-white narrative of "the West says Iran is building a bomb, Tehran says it isn't".

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Iran Feature: Talking Tough --- How the US and Tehran Mirror Each Other's Rhetoric

General Michael HaydenBoth sides believe that getting the other to make those concessions over the nuclear issue would be a major psychological blow --- perhaps even a defeat --- in the struggle for regional power. Both believe that such concessions --- Washington admitting Tehran's "right to enrich" or the polar opposite, Tehran giving up that --- would signal fundamental weakness in its rival.

At the level of this week's talks, those hopes and fears are being put diplomatically. Beyond the talks, in the chattering cauldron of Washington, some are blunter.

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Iran Live: Still Looking for "Unity" for the Election

The Supreme Leader's "2+1 Committee" --- MP Gholam Ali Haddad Adel, Khamenei advisor Ali Velayati, and Tehran Mayor Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf --- who are seeking a "unity" candidate for the Presidential election

See also Iran Analysis: This Week's Nuclear Talks --- A 5-Point Guide to the US and European Position
Monday's Iran Live: Will Iranians Celebrate "Islamic Republic Day"?

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1410 GMT: Food Watch. Nasser Karimi offers another story on the soaring price of pistachios, a luxury for New Year celebrations, adding this twist:

The government, which usually tries to contain Iranians' anger over the economy, has heartily backed the pistachio boycott — again for reasons tied to the Western-led sanctions over Iran's nuclear program. Pistachio exports provide a small but important pipeline for foreign revenues at a time when sanctions are squeezing Iran's oil and gas sales. Authorities say fewer nuts consumed at home means more available to sell abroad.

The pale green nuts are Iran's top non-oil export, though admittedly they are very distant second. Iran earned at least $750 million last year from exporting the nut, with some estimates as high as $1 billion.

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Iran Analysis: This Week's Nuclear Talks --- A 5-Point Guide to the US and European Position

1. The US and European partners will pursue the suspension of production of 20% uranium at the Fordoo plant --- although, in contrast to last June's proposals, they will not insist on a permanent shutdown --- and the despatch of Iran's existing 20% stock outside the country.

2. However, the US, Britain, France, and Germany will offer little new in return for this. The easing of sanctions on transfer of gold and precious materials --- a ban which was only imposed by the US on 6 February --- was also put forward at the high-level talks in late February.

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Iran Live Coverage: Another Challenge to Ahmadinejad

See also Wednesday's Iran Live Coverage: Interpreting the Supreme Leader on the US and Israel

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Ali Larijani & President Ahmadinejad1357 GMT: Oil Watch. Japan’s crude imports from Iran rose sharply in Feburary, reaching their highest level since March 2012.

Imports last month were about 321,000 barrels a day, up 67% from January.

Analysts said, however, that refiners have reduced their imports on a yearly basis --- thus, one month's increase is unlike to jeopardize Japan’s waiver from US sanctions.

Japan’s purchases from Iran last year declined 39%.

1353 GMT: Election Watch. Yet another warning of sedition in June's Presidential elections, possibly aimed at the Ahmadinejad camp --- Hossein Taghavi-Hosseini, the spokesman of Parliament's National Security Commission, has said the "deviant current" is pursuing "anti-security" activities.

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Iran Live Coverage: Interpreting the Supreme Leader on the US and Israel

See also Tuesday's Iran Live Coverage: "The Revolutionary Guards Will Protect the Election"

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1712 GMT: The Battle Within. Mohsen Rezaei --- Presidential candidate, former Revolutionary Guards commander, and Secretary of the Expediency Council --- has warned that if the next government is not strong, it will fall within two years.

Rezaei told an audience in Khuzestan Province that if the pressure becomes too great in the next government's second year, it would be forced to resign and step down. He did not elaborate on what problems the next government might face.

Rezaei, who has launched his election campaign and is focussing on the economy, said that the Supreme Leader favours the conservative candidates. He explained that he is running in the election because "Today, if I and people like me do not run, it would be a betrayal of the country."

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Iran Live Coverage: "America is Seeking Revenge"

See also Sunday's Iran Live Coverage: Worrying About Syria

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2034 GMT: Election Watch. Just as he did in the 2009 Presidential election, candidate and former Revolutionary Guards commander Mohsen Rezaei has put the economy and the Guards' role in it at the center of his campaign.

In an interview on his Tabnak news site, "Economics Is Not Solved By Reading A Couple of Books and Chanting Slogans", Rezaei praised the role of the Revolutionary Guards in building the country. During the 1980s and 1990s, he said, Iran's enemies had sought a cultural and economic war with Tehran --- for that reason the IRGC began its reconstruction program, which included road and dam-building, construction projects, and oil and gas pipelines.

Promoting the Guards' concept of "self-sufficiency jihad" to boost national production amid current challenges, Rezaei said the Islamic Republic needed people to enter the economy to "combat the enemy who is threatening Iran, and who won't even allow us to sell our Iranian oil".

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Iranians must "find ways to fight this economic war," Rezaei said. "Iran's enemies are trying in every possible way to blockade and sanction Iran."

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Iran Live Coverage: Supreme Leader Strikes a Defiant Pose

See also Iran Live Coverage: Supreme Leader Announces a "Political and Economic Epic"

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1255 GMT:Your Friday Prayers Update. Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami had the podium today and he used it for a jab at President Ahmadinejad.

Commenting on the upcoming Presidential elections, Khatami said officials must observe "Islamic ethics" and avoid misuse of authority during the process.

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When selecting candidates, national and public interests were preferable to factional ones, Khatami added. "Whoever wants to be president of his country should be at the forefront of ethics,"

Khatami said that candidates must not use public funds.

"None of the three branches of the Islamic government should encourage or support a particular candidate," he added.

In contrast, Fars News English focuses its attention on rhetoric about “Arrogant Powers” and Syria.

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Iran Live Coverage: Supreme Leader Announces a "Political and Economic Epic"

The Supreme Leader's Nowruz address on Wednesday

See also Iran Non-Story of The Day: Tehran Has a Plutonium Reactor!

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1525 GMT: Campus Watch. The political argument over President Ahmadinejad's attempt to remove four heads of prominent universities continues....

Asr-e Iran claims that Minister of Science Kamran Daneshjoo has resisted the order, raising questions about Ahmadinejad's next step.

The Student Basij Organization has condemned Ahmadinejad's attempt to replace the head of Tehran University.

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