Iran Analysis: 4 Reasons Why Supreme Leader is Still Open to Direct Talks with the US

The Supreme Leader addresses Air Force officers, 7 February 2013

---

So why is the Supreme Leader maintaining the opening for direct talks?

1. Khamenei may see the recent, serious political crisis as a distraction which allows him to slip in the possibility of negotiations with the US>
2. The international sanctions are starting to hurt.
3. The Syrian regime will not be able to survive the current crisis, and its fall will be a huge strategic blow to the Islamic Republic --- last week, the head of the Basij militia said Syria is more important to the regime than the province of Khuzestan, in defence of which many thousands of Iranians died during the war with Iraq in the 1980s.
4. The Islamic Republic had hoped that the Arab Spring would bring it new allies in the region. Indeed, the movements have isolated the regime even more.

Click to read more ...

Iran Live Coverage: Admitting the Battle Within

Press TV's coverage of the Supreme Leader's speech criticising President Ahmadinejad, Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, and head of judiciary Sadegh Larijani

See also Saturday's Iran Live Coverage: Tehran's Support for Syria Will Cause "War Between Shia and Sunni"

---

2030 GMT: The Battle Within. Forget the non-apology letter to the Supreme Leader, this is President Ahmadinejad's big statement today....

Ahmaadinejad used a speech to repeat his warning against the "engineering" of elections --- a swipe at last month's statement by the Supreme Leader's representative to the Revolutionary Guards, Ali Saeedi --- and swept aside any notion that he will back down: "I will work until last minute of my term."

The President continued, "I am ready to sacrifice myself for Islam and Qur'an. My only wish is that the flag of monotheism and justice flies and that mankind is set free."

Click to read more ...

Iran Live Coverage: Tehran's Support for Syria Will Cause "War Between Shia and Sunni"

See also Iran Analysis: The US Makes a Non-Offer on the Nuclear Talks</ br>
Friday's Iran Live Coverage: Syria --- The Islamic Republic's "35th Province"

---

Supreme Leader & President Assad

2110 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch (Journalist Edition). One of the 16 journalists seized three weeks ago, Fatemeh Sagharchi of Jamaran and former head of the Strategic Research Library, has been released on bail of 120 million Toman (about $30,000 at unofficial.rate).

Fourteen journalists, most of them from reformists publications, remain behind bars. No formal charges have been announced, although authorities and politicians have put out the message that they collaborated with foreign media.

Click to read more ...

Iran Live Coverage: Revolutionary Guards Issue A Warning to The Leaders

Qassem Sulemani, the head of the Quds Forces of the Revolutionary Guards, cries at a memorial for Guards commander Hassan Shateri, killed on Tuesday in Syria

Wednesday's Iran Live Coverage: Nuclear Talks with the IAEA

---

2015 GMT:Foreign Affairs Watch (Syrian Front). Senior cleric Mehdi Taeb, head of the Ammar Base think tank, has offered more explanation of Iran's military role in Syria, encouraging the formation of militias:,/p>

Syria had an army, but this army was incapable of managing war inside cities. Therefore, Iran suggested [to Syria] that they form a Basij in order to manage urban warfare.... The Syrian Basij was formed with 60,000 Hezbollahi and [this] caused the urban warfare to be transferred from the Syrian army [to the Syrian Basij]....

Of course, this adventure caused the Syrian Army to also become involved in some of these matters [urban warfare], and to become familiarized with all [aspects of the conflict].

Click to read more ...

Iran Live Coverage: "Viva Spring" --- Ahmadinejad Launches An Election Campaign

See also Iran Special: Ahmadinejad Declares Political War --- "My Rivals Will Rig the Presidential Election"
Sunday's Iran Live Coverage: 34th Anniversary of Islamic Revolution --- But How Many Are Celebrating?

---

1525 GMT: Karroubi's Son Arrested. The website linked to detained opposition leader Mehdi Karroubi says his son Mohammad Hossein was arrested today by security forces.

Karroubi, like fellow opposition figures Mir Hossein Mousavi and Zahra Rahnavard, has been kept under strict house arrest for 23 months. Earlier today, Mousavi and Rahnavard's daughters were detained and interrogated for hours before being released.

1505 GMT: Mousavi's Daughters Released. Zahra and Narges Mousavi, daughters of the detained opposition leaders Mir Hossein Mousavi and Zahra Rahnavard, have been released after hours of interrogation in Evin Prison.

The Mousavi daughters were detained this morning in raids on their homes (see 0950 GMT). No reason has been given by authorities.

Click to read more ...

Iran Special: Ahmadinejad Declares Political War --- "My Rivals Will Rig the Presidential Election"

---

For at least one day --- the day of the 34th anniversary of the Islamic Revolution --- Mahmoud Ahmadinejad had seized the initiative. He had declared that he would not give way to all his "enemies", even if they led Parliament and the judiciary, even if they might include members of the Supreme Leader's camp. He had said that it was he --- not they --- who represented Iranians.

Click to read more ...

Iran Special: What the Supreme Leader's "No Direct Talks with US" Really Means

The Supreme Leader did not kill off negotiations yesterday. Even as he laid down some tough lines --- to his officials as well as the US --- he signalled that they are alive, if only to hold far more dangerous alternatives.

Click to read more ...

Iran Live Coverage: Supreme Leader to His Officials "Stop Your Temper Tantrums"

The Supreme Leader addresses Air Force officers on Thursday

See also Iran Special: What the Supreme Leader's "No Direct Talks with US" Really Means
Thursday's Iran Live Coverage: The Battle Within --- Ahmadinejad v. the Larijanis

---

2045 GMT:Health Watch. Exports of American pharmaceuticals to Iran were halved last year, even as overall US exports to the Islamic republic rose about 9% because of grain sales.

Exports of pharmaceuticals fell to $14.8 million from $31.1 million in 2011, while sales of vitamins, medicinal and botanical drugs decreased to $4.9 million from $10.8 million.

US officials have said they tried to sanction Iran without unduly harming ordinary Iranians, granting licenses to American companies who wish to export pharmaceuticals, medical devices, food, and other humanitarian goods to Iran.

However, sanctions lawyers have said the blacklisting of the Islamic Republic's major financial institutions has made it difficult to find smaller Iranian banks able to conduct such licensed transactions as well as international banks willing to deal with them.

Overall US exports to Iran rose to $250.2 million from $229.3 million in 2011. However, most of the increase is attributable to $89.2 million in the sale of wheat and other grains.

In 2011, the United States exported no wheat or grains to Iran.

Click to read more ...

Iran Live Coverage: The Battle Within --- Ahmadinejad v. the Larijanis

Happier Times: Head of judiciary Sadegh Larijani, President Ahmadinejad, Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani

See also Iran Opinion: Condemning the Nuclear Talks --- and Tehran --- with Ill-Informed Analysis
Wednesday's Iran Live Coverage: Nuclear Talks Resume on 26 February

---

2200 GMT: The House Arrests. Grand Ayatollah Mousavi Ardebili has reportedly clashed with the Supreme Leader over the house arrests of opposition leaders Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi.

Mousavi Ardebili visited Ayatollah Khamenei to demand the release of Mousavi and Karroubi, held for almost two years. Khamenei replied that they must obey velayat-e faqih [the rule of the Supreme Leader] and show regret for their actions over the disputed 2009 Presidential election in which they were candidates.

Mousavi Ardebili said that Mousavi and Karroubi had obeyed the rule of the late Ayatollah Khomeini and added that President Ahmadinejad's performance "has proven they are right". When Khamenei refused to shift in his position, the Grand Ayatollah left the meeting angrily.

Click to read more ...

Iran Live Coverage: Nuclear Talks Resume on 26 February

See also Iran Audio Analysis: The Downfall of Ahmadinejad, The Resumption of Nuclear Talks --- Scott Lucas with the BBC and Monocle 24
Tuesday's Iran Live Coverage: Humiliation of Ahmadinejad Continues --- Advisor Mortazavi Arrested

---

2119 GMT:The Battle Within. Hamidreza Taraghi, a senior member of the conservative Motalefeh Party, hsa said that "the nezam [system] can bear Ahamadinejad, but has no problem with his dismissal either --- the,decision re bearing with him is with the Supreme Leader".

1819 GMT:Sanctions Watch. The US Treasury has sanctioned State broadcasters such as IRIB for helping the Government censor opposition.

The Treasury alsn named IRIB director Ezzatollah Zarghami in measures blocking access to the US financial system.

Click to read more ...