Iran Live Coverage: How to "Engineer" an Election

"My husband is an engineer. He engineers elections." (Cartoon: Maya Neyestani)

See also Thursday's Iran Live Coverage: Ahmadinejad v. Parliament...and the Revolutionary Guards

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1605 GMT: Your Tehran Friday Prayer Update (Election Edition). More about the distinctive theme in today's Prayer sermon, delivered by the Guardian Council's Ayatollah Jannati, that while Iran has free elections, it is co-operation with the enemy to talk about free elections (see 1155 GMT)....

Jannati's threat to detained opposition leaders Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, both of whom ran in the June 2009 Presidential election, was straightforward: “The public has identified your movement and knows your leaders and the leaders of sedition, and they know what your aim is; you should be ashamed of yourselves.”

And Jannati made clear that, while "those who meet the necessary criteria will never be refused a chance to run in the elections", those who "they lack them...clearly will not be allowed to run".

But here is where it gets really interesting:

Those who consider themselves men of politics and have had important roles in the Revolution should be ashamed of themselves for repeating the statement of the foreign enemies of the regime....

The political losers are now talking about free elections and one of them is quite powerful and since a while ago he has begun talking about this issue and the rest have followed his line.

Who is this "quite powerful...political loser"? Surely not President Ahmadinejad, given that the Supreme Leader handed him the 2009 victory? Former President Mohammad Khatami does not seem to qualify as "quite powerful"?

How about former President Hashemi Rafsanjani?

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Iran Live Coverage: Please Vote (P.S. --- We Did Not Rig the Last Election)

See also Syria and Iran Feature: 2130 Civilian Prisoners To Be Released in Exchange for 48 Iranian "Pilgrims"
Iran Audio Feature: How Serious is the Oil Crisis? --- Scott Lucas with Monocle 24
Tuesday's Iran Live Coverage: The Regime Admits the Oil Squeeze

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2055 GMT: Engineering Elections Watch. Back to our opening story....

The Supreme Leader's representative, Ali Saeedi, may have set off a political storm with his remark that it is the duty of the Revolutionary Guards to "engineer" the elections --- even if the Guards tried to soften that comment by saying it referred only to ensuring security for the vote.

That's because President Ahmadinejad chose to run with the possibility of inappropriate intervention by the Guards: "Whoever wants to manage people's votes will be managed by the people."

A Guards spokesman responded that the President's remark was "astonishing".

1955 GMT: The House Arrests. Leading conservative politician Habibollah Asgarouladi has pulled back on his recent statements that detained opposition leaders Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi are not "seditionists".

Asgarouladi had said that the problem was that Mousavi and Karroubi were surrounded by seditious elements, but he told Mehr, in an interview published today, "I never said [they] are not seditionists, I said they are not at the top of the sedition."

Asgarouladi continued, "I've said clearly that they stood against the establishment and the people, and they have to be held responsible."

The politician's initial comments raised speculation that the regime might lift the 23-month house arrests of Mousavi and Karroubi, both candidates in the disputed 2009 Presidential election.

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Iran Live Coverage: The Supreme Leader Tries to Bolster His Popularity

See also Iran Analysis: Preparing for Elections, Ahmadinejad Tries to Replace His Vice President
Thursday's Iran Live Coverage: A Collapsing Economy?

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1954 GMT: Oil Watch. Turkey's imports of Iranian oil held steady at around 100,000 barrels per day from September to December, data from a shipping source and Reuters indicate.

The volume is 45% down from Ankara's 2011 purchases of about 180,000 bpd and more than 60% lower from peak imports of 250,000-280,000 bpd in early 2012.

Iran State media highlights the unchanged imports but somehow fails to mention the sharp fall compared to the start of last year.

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Iran Analysis: Preparing for Elections, Ahmadinejad Tries to Replace His Vice President

New Vice President? Gholam Hossein ElhamEarlier this week, we noted reports in Iranian media that President Ahmadinejad was planning to replace 1st Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi and three leading ministers. We also noted the denial from Ahmadinejad's office.

That, however, is only the beginning of the story. An EA correspondent in Iran assures us that Ahmadinejad is trying to remove his Vice President --- and it is part of a bigger plan for the Presidential election in June.

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Iran Live Coverage: The Supreme Leader Admits A Crisis

See also Iran Feature: The Top 10 Stories of 2012 --- A Currency Falls, Sanctions Expand, and Political Prisoners Continue to Resist
EA Special: 10 Predictions for 2013 --- Assad Gone, an Angry Middle East, and Little Change on "Human Rights"
Monday's Iran Live Coverage: All-Is-Well Oil Alerts

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2040 GMT: Labour Front. More than 500 workers at the Safa Pipe factory have begun a fourth round of protests over conditions and the delayed payment of wages.

A worker said the demonstration began Saturday after employees were not paid in more than six months.

1940 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Popular singer and activist Arya Aramnejad was summoned today to serve his 91-day sentence.

Aramnejad has been detained on several occasions, including a five-month stay in prison from November 2011 to April 2012.

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Iran Analysis: Rafsanjani Strikes Back (and Why the Supreme Leader is Allowing It)

So is this the re-emergence of Rafsanjani as a leading political force? Not quite.

For four years --- ever since Hashemi Rafsanjani gave his last Tehran Friday Prayer in July 2009, in which he questioned the legitimacy of Ahmadinejad's re-election and challenged the Supreme Leader by calling for the release of political prisoners --- Ayatollah Khamenei has been balancing his former and current Presidents.

And he is not going to stop now.

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Iran Live Coverage: "Supreme Leader Ordered House Arrests of Mousavi and Karroubi"

See also The Latest from Iran (25 December): Is the Currency Falling Again?

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2117 GMT: Economy Watch. Radio Zamaneh summarises the gloomy report of Parliament's Research Center, surveying 98 economic organizations over the past year, that production has fallen 40% and employment is down 36%. The downturn has been fed by price rises of 87.9% for produced goods and 112.1% for primary materials.

The Center adds that in the past year, only 50 production facilities have been established while 566 have shut down.

Meanwhile, in an example of the problems with production, 300 workers at the Fajr Petrochemical factory in Mahshahr have gone on strike protesting the lack of job security.

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Iran Flashback: The Supreme Leader Joins Facebook...in August 2009

Supreme Leader on Facebook, August 2009Ayatollah Ali Khamenei apparently has signed up for his own page, complete with appropriately artistic photograph. Don't know if he has poked anyone yet or posted a status update, such as "Wishing Mahmoud Would Get His Cabinet in Order", but he does have 20 friends.

11 August 2009, 1735 GMT: Mir Hossein Mousavi is not yet a friend of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Are you?

1810 GMT: Ayatollah Khamenei reportedly displeased that he shares his Facebook page with ads for "Prostate Treatment" and "Betfair Arcade".

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Iran Feature: "Accept that the Regime is in Its Final Days" --- Dr Maleki's Letter to Supreme Leader

Accept that the regime is in its final days. Do not trust in the information your allies provide you. Their only concern is their interests. At the end they will leave you on your own. Now, Iranians see you as responsible for all their problems. It was you who denied, and is still denying, the endless problems of the people. It was you who made incorrect decisions and let foreigners impose sanctions on Iranians and make their lives miserable. It was you who implemented strategies that brought the entire world against Iran. It was you who showed a green light to his men to take terrorist actions everywhere and shed the blood of Iranian intellectuals. You, as former President and current Supreme Leader, are responsible for mass killings of the 80s and martyrdoms of Hoda, Haleh, Neda, Saba, Sattar and many others.

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Iran Snap Analysis: Speculating about the Next President

Supreme Leader & Ali Larijani"The most important vote in Iran’s presidential election is that of Ayatollah Khamenei" --- And the Supreme Leader and his office, weighing all the political possibilities and pitfalls, do not cast that vote until late in the jousting for the Presidency and the ballot in June. As analyst Essikhan Sadeghi Boroujerdi summarises, echoing one of our top EA correspondents, "Everything on presidential election is pretty much speculation, rumour, and hearsay till March."

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