The Latest from Iran (29 December): "Can You Show Us The Door To Heaven?"

1735 GMT: Tuesday's Executions. Fereshteh Ghazi posts a summary of her interviews with the family and lawyer of Ali Saremi.

1720 GMT: Un-Free Press. Chief investor Ali Khodabakhsh and editor-in-chief Ahmad Gholami of the reformist newspaper Shargh have been released on $10,000 bail each. The two were among six Shargh staff arrested during the week of 7 December, reportedly for an article on National Students Day.

1700 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch (Execution Edition). A nephew of Ali Saremi, who was executed on Tuesday, has reportedly been detained. Ali Saremi's widow Mahin said Mohammad Saremi was seized in Tehran after he displayed a picture of his uncle on the door of the family home as a sign of mourning.

Mahin Saremi said eight other relatives, as well as friends, who were detained on Tuesday outside Evin Prison where Saremi was hanged, have been released after giving written pledges not to gather again in front of the facility.

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WikiLeaks, Iran, and the Green Movement: The Predictions of Iraq's President

Commenting a week after the demonstrations on 27 December 2009 and the regime's mobilisation of support three days later, Talabani assesses, "Tt was not that the Iranian regime was weak, but rather that the opposing side was strong....Whereas the demonstrations at first were attacking Iranian President Ahmadinejad, they have now shifted to being against Supreme Leader Khamenei."

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Iran Document: The Family of Detained Journalist Nourizad Write the Supreme Leader

Mohammad Reza Nourizad, journalist and filmmaker, has been imprisoned since March, primarily because of letters he wrote to the Supreme Leader about the post-election crisis in Iran. He reportedly has been on hunger strike for more than a week, and other reports says he has been hospitalised.

Last week, the family of Nourizad and the wife of the detained reformist leader Mostafa Tajzadeh gathered in front of Evin Prison. They were accosted by security forces and detained for several hours. Nourizad's wife was reportedly sent to hospital with heart complaints after she was released.

On Saturday, the Nourizad family posted this open letter to Ayatollah Khamenei:

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The Latest from Iran (18 December): A Big Event?

1945 GMT: Two Steps Ahead? Meanwhile, on the nuclear front, President Ahmadinejad is racing ahead with his "engagement" of the 5+1 Powers (US, UK, France, Germany, Russia, and China) in discussions on Iran's uranium enrichment.

Iran and the 5+1 agreed last week to further talks in Turkey in January but Ahmadinejad went further in his speech: "“I hope in talks in Istanbul, then in Brazil and then Tehran we could reach a framework of cooperation… this is to everyone's benefit. There were positive points in [Geneva] talks… I think it is time that their [the P5+1] confrontational policy turns into interactional policy."

1935 GMT: Sedition Watch (cont.). Rah-e-Sabz puts its gloss on the resistance of the head of judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, to the arrest of opposition figures (see 1650 GMT). According to the Green website, Larijani responded to those calling for the detention of Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi: "You have blamed the Supreme Leader indirectly by taking the judiciary as a shield (for your demands)."

1920 GMT: Subsidy Cuts? Yes. Ahh, here we go. Just catching up with Mardomak's LiveBlog....

IRNA's headline covered only the first couple of minutes of the speech. Almost all the statement, with declarations of Iran's potential to become a world-leading economy, was a presentation of the subsidy cuts. Ahmadinejad confirmed the chatter that implementation will begin tomorrow. He gave assurances such as the deposit of 4000 tomans (about $4) in people's bank accounts to cover the reduction in subsidies for bread. Each individual would receive a total of 81,000 tomans ($81) over the next two months.

Fars beats other websites to the punch with an article on Ahmadinejad's presentation of the "largest project in the economic history of Iran". Indeed, Fars has no less than five items playing up the subsidy cuts, with assurances that support payments for the poorest Iranians are fully-funded.

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Iran Analysis: Will Ahmadinejad Succeed on Subsidy Cuts?

Ashura is so day-before-yesterday.

On to the next possible big event. Tonight Mahmoud Ahmaidinejad will go on national television to address the Iranian public about his proposed subsidy cuts. 

Later Analysis: Ahmadinejad Walks a Tightrope to Bring Out Subsidy Cuts

On Friday, as we realised that there would be no post-Ashura boom for the regime, three EA correspondents chatted about the current situation.

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Iran Snap Analysis: Non-Events, Non-Millions, and Non-Victory on Ashura

In more than 18 months of covering the post-election crisis in Iran, it may have been the strangest experience.

It was just after 9 a.m. in Iran when I set up the computer, turned on Iran's Press TV, opened up the websites of Iran's state media, and prepared to write about the "millions" who would turn out in mourning for Imam Hossein, the third Imam of Shi'a who had been killed in 680 AD by the evil Caliph Yazid. 

I knew there would be "millions" because ranian press and broadcasters had told me there would be millions.

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Iran Feature: The Battle Within and The Protests Are Still The Stories (Miller)

Western audiences, and especially Americans, don't like complicated, sad stories.  We like good guys and bad guys, cowboys and Indians, terrorists and allies.  We don't like to hear that 40-60% of the population of a country that we view as an enemy might very well be a friend.  We don't like to hear that the government we are negotiating with is illegitimate, or weak.  We also don't like to follow the slow development of an opposition movement that we can do little to help.  We like sexy stories like weapons of mass destruction or revolution, and we certainly like clarity.

Unfortunately, as long as we're not paying attention, we're also not helping, and until the media starts to cover these stories, many more people may die before things improve in Iran.

(Photograph by Munzz)

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WikiLeaks: "Iran Can't Go On Like This" --- The Mistaken Predictions for the 22 Bahman Protests

The events of 22 Bahman (11 February 2010) were a significant disappointment for the Iranian opposition. In the weeks before the anniversary of the 1979 Revolution, there was an excitement that protests against the Government and regime --- which had continued despite repression and made a notable impact in the Ashura demonstrations of 27 December --- would build, possibly to a critical point.

On the day, the opposition was unable to mount a co-ordinated public protest while the regime was able to mobilise support for its official ceremonies.

In that light, the cable below from the Iran Watchers" post at the US Embassy in Baku in Azerbaijan is telling: the Embassy's sources were all predicting a significant opposition turnout on 22 Bahman to challenge a fracturing regime: "Iran Can't Go On Like This".

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The Latest from Iran (14 December): Power Plays

2030 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Lawyers Sara Sabaghian and Maryam Kianarsi have been released on bail.

Sebaghian, Kianarsi, and fellow attorney Maryam Karbasi were seized at Imam Khomeini Airport in mid-November as they returned from Turkey.

2025 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. More from the statement of Reza Khandan (see 1154 GMT), the husband of detained attorney Nasrine Sotoudeh, about his wife's situation....

Khandan explained the new charge in Sotoudeh's file of “failing to adhere to the Islamic code of dressing (hijab)”: “Two years ago Sotoudeh had been awarded a prize by the Italian Human Rights Committee and to express her gratitude, she had recorded a video message in Iran without covering her hair. The message was not shown in Iran.”

Khandan also denied the most recent claim of judiciary official Mohammad Javad Larijani that Sotoudeh had met with terrorist groups: "[She] has at no time been linked to terrorist groups and no such charge is in her file.”

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WikiLeaks and Iran 2007: "The President is a Puppet of the Leader"

In April 2007, an MP and senior member of the Islamic Iran Participation Front offers some provocative comments on Iranian politics to the US Consulate in Dubai.

Supreme Leader Khamenei aspires to become the "emperor" of the Islamic world and is willing to sacrifice Iranian national interests for this goal. He sees President Ahmadi-Nejad as merely a puppet of the Supreme Leader, under the leader's complete control. Ahmadi-Nejad, in turn, sees more pragmatic conservatives such as [Speaker of Parliament Ali] Larijani and [Tehran Mayor Mohammad-Baqer] Qalibaf as his main rivals.

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