The Latest from Iran (10 December): Human Rights Day

2235 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. There is still no news of three people detained during a memorial ceremony at Behesht-e Zahra cemetery last Sunday.

Other mourners, including Parvin Fahimi, the mother of the slain protestor Sohrab Arabi, were seized but later released.

Journalist Mashallah Shamsolvaezin has been sentenced to 16 months in prison on charges of insulting the President.

In an interview with Al Arabiya television, Shamsolvaezin said Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was "repressive" and "a lunatic".

Shamsolvaezin is spokesman for the Iranian Committee for the Defense of Freedom of the Press, and also as vice president of the Association of Iranian Journalists.

Click to read more ...

Wikileaks and Iran: Europe, Ahmadinejad, and The Worst Inauguration Protest Ever

The Europeans were going to convert their unknown dissent into known dissent if the President --- who had no idea, as he was being inaugurated, that a non-protest was occurring over his possible non-election --- mentioning the killing of Jews, past or future.

Well, not quite:

[French official] Paucelle admitted that since non-Muslims had never before received an invitation to the inauguration ceremony presided over by the Supreme Leader, EU diplomats in Tehran have never entered the building where the event will take place, and so they are not sure how they will stage their walk-out, logistically, should they need to do so. They are worried that the doors may be locked.

Click to read more ...

WikiLeaks Document & EA Analysis: US Diplomats on Green Movement & Iran's Politics "From Crisis to Stalemate"

Today we post Part 2 of the analysis of the situation in Iran by the US Consulate in Dubai in January 2010. (The first cable was published on EA on Friday.)

It is a must-read document, but it is still an incomplete assessment. The challenge to the regime has never been one of an all-or-nothing contest between Government and Green Movement. The Consulate's attempted analogies with Iran 1978/1979 and Poland in the 1980s are distracting, rather than illuminating.

Instead the current possibilities of change have come through the dynamic between the space for resistance opened up by opposition movements and the space exploited by those manoeuvring within the Iranian system.

That is still true today.

Click to read more ...

The Latest from Iran (5 December): Hope and Resistance

2105 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Journalist Isa Saharkhiz has reportedly undergone an operation for international bleeding in Rajai Shahr Prison's infirmary.

Leyla Tavassoli has been transferred to Evin Prison to begin a two-year prison sentence.

Tavassoli is the daughter of Mohammad Tavassoli, a senior member of the Freedom Movement of Iran.

2058 GMT: Labour Front. Workers of Kashan spinning factory have gathered in front of the governor's office to protest over being paid half-wages for 27 months.

2055 GMT: All-is-Well Alert. The Deputy Minister of Trade has said that bread prices will rise "a bit" after subsidy cuts but added that quality will rise as well.

Click to read more ...

Wikileaks Iran Special: US Diplomats Assess Green Movement & Politics "From Crisis to Stalemate"

We have now added a special analysis to our posting of Part 2 of the US Consulate in Dubai's analysis in January 2010 of the Green Movement and Iran's political situation. The revised post is at the top of the homepage.

Iran Snapshot: Will Rafsanjani Use Political Prisoners to Make a New Move?

>A group of 16 Iranian political prisoners, including prominent reformist politicians Mohsen Aminzadeh and Mostafa Tajzadeh and journalists Bahman Ahmadi Amoui and Mohammad Nourizad have written an open letter to former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, describing their continued incarceration “in violation of the law” and in the “framework of settling political accounts”.

Is this the prelude to a renewed Rafsanjani initiative?

Click to read more ...

Wikileaks Iran Special: US Diplomats Assess the Green Movement and the Political Situation (January 2010)

"The GPO [Green Movement] has a strong 'brand' - green, freedom, peace signs, silent marches, stolen election and martyrs like Neda Agha Soltani. But like the regime that seeks to crush it, the GPO is not monolithic. To characterize the GPO's active core as now primarily (but not exclusively) university students and university-age youth in a country so demographically young (for example, approximately one quarter of the population is in its twenties) is not to belittle its potential. Outside of the active GPO core group there is a larger, relatively passive group, whose support now mostly manifests in the anonymous shouts of 'God is Great' from night-time North Tehran rooftops or who scrawl or stamp anti-regime slogans on ten thousand Toman currency notes. Presumably many of them have fled the field due to fear of regime reprisal but might be drawn back into the fray if the prospects of a GPO victory, however defined, became more real to them than the prospect of blows from a Basiji baton."

Click to read more ...

Wikileaks-Iran Analysis: The Scepticism over Obama's Sincerity (Peterson)

WikiLeaks revelations that American officials were planning to raise pressure on Iran with more sanctions and a missile defense shield – even while President Obama was making high-profile public overtures to Iran – are being seen in Tehran as validation of deep skepticism from the start about Obama’s effort.

Iranians and analysts alike say the leaked diplomatic cables show a half-hearted attempt at engagement in which the US administration’s “dual track” policy of simultaneously applying pressure and negotiating was undermined by a singular focus on the pressure track and a growing assumption that engaging Iran was pointless.

Click to read more ...

Wikileaks-Iran Document: "Death to Khamenei" --- The Inside Line on the Post-Election Situation, Tehran's Politicians, Nuclear Talks, & US Hikers

"The biggest 'game changer' had been this past summer's presidential elections. The events were causing backlash from much of the population. Parents and grandparents were saying that they do not want their children to be forced to experience the same Iran that they, themselves, have been living under for the last 30 years. For the first time, one can see "kill Khamenei" and "death to Khamenei" scrawled on walls in Tehran. These direct challenges to Khamenei's authority are new and significant. Additionally, XXX expects that the population was disillusioned by the overwhelming fraud in the elections and many will not vote in the future."

EA correspondents believe this may be one of the valuable documents --- for intelligence and analysis --- to come out of the Wikileaks release so far. In December 2009, a European diplomat, who had recently left an ambassador's post in Iran, spoke to American officials about the 2009 election, Iran's internal situation, and the nuclear talks.

Each paragraph of this cable is filled with information and insight on post-election Iran, much of which is still relevant today.

Click to read more ...

Wikileaks-Iran Document: Problems with the Opposition and the Economy...in April 2009

Ahmadinejad's defeats on the budget and his plan to distribute cash payments to lower-income Iranians show that power centers, such as the Majles, are actively working to pressure the President prior to the June election....

Khamenei moderated his support for Ahmadinejad following Khatami's decision to exit the contest. Hosseini predicts Mir Hossein Mousavi will win the election.

Click to read more ...