Iran Feature: Revolutionary Guards Speak Out Against Ahmadinejad (Theodoulou)

Analysts suspect the [Revolutionary Guards'] magazine was encouraged to publish the [critical] article by the office of Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. If so, however, this does not mean there is a major rift between the ayatollah and the president: it is more likely to be a warning shot aimed at reining in Mr Ahmadinejad, analysts said.

"It [the article] should not be turned into a narrative of withdrawal of support for Ahmadinejad and a sign of his imminent downfall," said Farideh Farhi, an Iran expert at the University of Hawaii. "But it should give pause to those who keep explaining Ahmadinejad's success in maintaining power in terms of his base of support in the Guards."

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The Latest from Iran (4 November): What Will Happen on an Anniversary?

2110 GMT: Proper Teachers. The Ministry of Education Ministry has issued new directives barring the employment as school teachers of persons affiliated with "illegal" parties, organizations, and groups.

Such persons may not be employed as teachers "unless they repent" of the affiliation or withdraw the support.

The directive also gives priority of employment to those who "volunteer for activities in revolutionary institutions" and "participate in political, social, and religious activities".

2055 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch (Hunger Strike Edition). Back from an extended break to find that detained attorney Nasrine Sotoudeh has resumed her hunger strike, refusing food and water since Sunday.

Sotoudeh, who was imprisoned at the start of September, went on a hunger strike for four weeks but ended it on 23 October.

There are reports that the prominent Italian lawyer Bruno Malattia has taken on the defence of condemned adultress Sakineh Mohammadi Ashtiani and her attorney Houtan Kian, who was detained last month.

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The Latest from Iran (30 October): Happy Birthday, Mahmoud

2010 GMT: The Birthday Boy's Speech. A big finish to Saturday? Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has tried to sell his subsidy cut plan in a nationally-televised interview by emphasising that cuts actually means receiving money.

Fars highlights the President's declaration that support payments of 81,000 tomans (about $80) every month will be paid to those on lower incomes.

IRNA goes another direction, emphasising Ahmadinejad's statement that the 1979 Islamic Revolution was the end of a dark era of history.

Press TV mentions the subsidy statement but prefers to lead with his comparison of Iran's progress --- "We have achieved many feats in agriculture, industry,...and science. We have made a leap. --- with the end of the West: "There is no hope in America and Europe."

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Iran, Sanctions, and War: The Obama Administration Spins Out of Control

Many may perceive the message in Thursday's New York Times article --- again, even though there is no evidence that the "senior Administration official" is presenting an agreed point of view --- as one advocating military action.

That's pretty stupid, given that others in the Administration --- like the head of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Mike Mullen --- have been trying to talk down the idea of military intervention and have been reminding the Israelis that the US Government is opposed to an airstrike on Iran.

It's not even a sensible political manoeuvre. The Ahmadinejad Government is likely to seize upon this as proof of America's hypocrisy --- they talk negotiations, but they mean conflict --- and unrelenting hostility towards the Iranian people. Rather than fold to the mounting economic pressure that the Administration official envisages, the Government and the Supreme Leader will use this further sign of the "enemy" to try and rally support to offset the economic difficulties.

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The Latest from Iran (28 October): Re-Playing the Election

2040 GMT: Sanctions Watch. The State Bank of India has directed its overseas branches to stop transactions with Iranian entities.

An internal circular issued last month by the bank, India’s largest, establishes that India has tacitly joined United Nations sanctions against Iran.

The directive was issued after Iranian entities attempted to break the bank’s firewall by using shell firms to purchase US dollars to finance their business.

1955 GMT: How Could We Forget? It was the 10th and last day of the Khamenei roadshow in Qom. Mehr said that the people of the city gave him a "huge and passionate" farewell. Fars echoes the story, but there are no pictures.

The Financial Times belatedly notices the trip, "Khamenei Pleads for Clerical Support in Qom".

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The Latest from Iran (27 October): In Transit

2130 GMT: Corruption Watch. According to Peyke Iran, former Minister of Interior Mostafa Pourmohammadi has said that, on behalf of the Supreme Leader, consideration of some files of economic fraud has been postponed.

2115 GMT: Rafsanjani vs. the Islamic Republic? Hossein Salami, the deputy commander of the Revolutionary Guard, has declared that if Islamic values disintegrate, Iran will proceed to a collapse.

So who could pose such a threat to Islamic values? Khabar Online has an intriguing reference: the arrest of sedition leaders was discussed in the National Security Council, but President Ahmadinejad did not present documents for his allegations against former President Hashemi Rafsanjani.

2045 GMT: The Khamenei Roadshow. So what did the Supreme Leader do on the 9th day of his stay in Qom?

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The Latest from Iran (25 October): It's "Soft War" Day!

2050 GMT: Air Fuel Wars. Thomas Erdbrink of The Washington Post reports that Iran has retaliated for the cut-off of refueling of its planes in much of Europe: Tehran has refused to fully supply British Midlands International, the only British airline flying to Iran.

BMI flights are making a short stop en route to Tehran to take on more fuel.

2038 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. The one-year prison sentence and 30-year ban from journalism of Jila Bani Yaghoub has been confirmed.

Journalist Amin Madani has been freed.

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The Latest from Iran (24 October): The "Normal" Tensions

1855 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Journalist and activist Heshmatollah Tabarzadi, serving a nine-year sentence, has written a letter asking exiled Iranian lawyers to make his case to international courts, asking for an investigation of the Supreme Leader in light of the activities of Iran's security forces and criminal justice system.

1830 GMT: Cracking Down on the Lawyers. Prominent human rights attorney Mohammad Dadkhah has appeared in court, accused of possession of a firearm.

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The Latest from Iran (23 October): A Victory in Qom?

1835 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Safar Mousavi, the head of Foulad Shahr city council in Isfahan Province, has been released on bail after 40 days in prison.

1820 GMT: Subsidy Watch. More warnings for the Government as it may or may not introduce subsidy cuts....

Ali Asghar Yousefinejad, the chair of Parliament's Industry Commission warns that subsidy refunds will not cover rising costs. Ayande News adds substance: new gas bills will be 800,000 Toman (about $800) but the support payments are only 1/10th of this.

1815 GMT: Economic Transparency? Adel Azar, the head of Iran's Statistics Center has declared, that if the government accepts the offer, the Center will publish the data on inflation.

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Iran Snap Analysis: Wikileaks (and the New York Times) v. the Supreme Leader

No question about the big development in Iran yesterday. The Supreme Leader, after four days of effort, finally got a significant political and religious triumph --- as opposed to his PR victory on Tuesday with his reception by Qom's crowds --- when Grand Ayatollah Safi Golpayegani agreed to meet him. Ayatollah Khamenei's website put out a spread of photographs of the encounter, and state media --- even Press TV, which had been silent on the Supreme Leader's meetings with clerics --- posted short reports of the meeting, which also included Ayatollahs Hossein Nouri Hamedani, Naser Makarem Shirazi, Mousa Shobeiri Zanjani, Jafar Sobhani, and Abdollah Javadi Amoli. 

Still, the press coverage has been fairly muted, and the Supreme Leader faces a list of clerics who are holding out against public photographs and private talks: maraje such as Ayatollahs Mousavi Ardebili, Vahid Khorasani, Bayat Zanjani (who raised a smile with his excuse that he was attending his niece's wedding and visiting his mom in Zanjan), and Sane'i are still refusing to show allegiance.

Meanwhile, the non-Iranian press is likely to pay little or no attention today. That is because Tehran has been swept up in the high-profile release by Wikileaks on documents on the US war in Iraq since 2003.

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