Iran Analysis: US Officials on Nuke Talks "We Have A Cunning Plan" (Not Really.)

Laura Rozen, the go-to journalist for inside stories on the nuclear talks between Iran and the "West", posted a significant but curious story last night:

The Obama administration is considering putting forward a broader proposal to Iran, rather than the more incremental one presented at a meeting last month in Baghdad, diplomatic sources told Al-Monitor.

Those arguing in favor of the "go big" approach say their thinking has been influenced by two recent diplomatic encounters with Iran that cast doubt on the viability of an incremental deal, as well as by Israeli concerns over any interim deal being the last one reached with Iran for the next few years, officials said.

That's a great narrative. As it appears that the negotiations with Tehran, stalled in the formal meeting in Baghdad two weeks ago and descending into posturing and criticism afterwards, will break down, Washington brings in the surprise settlement to save the process. Victory snatched from the jaws of diplomatic defeat.

A great narrative and, like many great narratives, entirely fictional.

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Iran Special: Tehran's View of Nuclear Talks --- Insight, Propaganda, or Self-Deception?

The Iranian belief --- if it is is genuine --- that it still has some leverage because of European weakness and fear is significant. It indicates that Tehran will persist with a defiant approach in Moscow. If it even chooses to address the nuclear issue as central, it will restate its demand not only for some enrichment of uranium on its soil, but for enrichment to 20% --- the level beyond bounds for the 5+1 Powers. It will refuse any reduction of activity at the Fordoo enrichment activity, let alone the closure demanded by the US and the Europeans. It will offer no concession, ahead of an easing of sanctions, over inspections and safeguards by the IAEA.

The Islamic Republic will offer none of this because it believes that it can win the game of diplomatic "chicken". The Moscow talks will break up with no advance.

Two weeks later, it will be 1 July and the imposition of the European Union's cut-off of Iranian oil. Then we will see if propaganda and mis-perception gives way to cold economic reality.

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Iran Analysis: 4 Lessons of The Baghdad Nuclear Talks...And What's Next

Iran Delegation at Baghdad TalksWe are in the political and diplomatic equivalent of the game of "chicken", in which "two drivers drive towards each other on a collision course: one must swerve, or both may die in the crash".

Do the US and Europe let up on the accelerator on pressure? Does the Islamic Republic turn away? Or are both sides willing to risk the crash, because "if one driver swerves and the other does not, the one who swerved will be called a chicken"?

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