US Politics Feature: Why Romney's Tax Returns Could Decide an Election

Vice President Joe Biden, in a speech on Tuesday, calls on Republican Presidential candidate to release his tax returns

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What Democrats are looking for is an issue for Obama to embarrass Romney in October debates.

The Obama team will have watched over and over again Romney's performance in the Republican primary encounters, and they must have noticed his discomfort and indecision when Gingrich went after him over the tax returns. Romney was visibly on the defensive when Gingrich goaded him, and his response of publishing only one year's accounts has allowed Democrats to picture a similar scene in October.

Some commentators might regard this interest in Romney's tax returns as irrelevant or misguided, compared to important matters like the economy. But what both campaigns need is a surprise wedge issue. The longer Mitt Romney allows the perception to fester that he is hiding something about his wealth, the greater the chance that he will hand the Democrats the "buzz" they need to prevail on Election Day.

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US Photo of the Day: Truman 1948, Obama 2012 --- CNN's Great Mistake

See also US Politics Analysis: How Chief Justice Roberts Saved ObamaCare...and Gave the President an Election Problem

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Two photographs telling a story of continuity and change in US politics and the media....

In 1948, President Harry Truman was fighting an uphill battle vs. Republican challenger Thomas Dewey. Early returns on Election Night gave Dewey a lead, big enough for the Chicago Daily Tribune --- no great fan of the President --- to put out a special edition, "DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN".

When the full count produced a very different outcome, Truman had the last laugh in a picture that has crossed the decades of US politics.

On Thursday morning, as the Supreme Court's long-awaited decision on President Obama's health care legislation was being announced, CNN tried to get a jump on its rivals with a Newsflash: "Mandate Struck Down: High Court Finds Measure Unconstitutional". (It should be noted that Fox News also put out the mistaken declaration, but it was CNN's initial error that grabbed attention.)

It only took a few hours and PhotoShop for a 21st-century update of Truman's 1948 iconic image:

US Politics Analysis: How Chief Justice Roberts Saved ObamaCare...and Gave the President an Election Problem

Chief Justice John Roberts' opinion has rewritten the dynamics of the upcoming Presidential election. With Obamacare being declared constitutional as a tax, the face-value victory for the Administration may well cost Obama the White House in November.

The law was already unpopular with many Americans who saw it as an unconstitutional infringement on their rights. A majority of the Court agreed with them, but the salvation of the Affordable Care Act is that it is a Federal tax.

So after the dozens of pages of legal opinion, a one-sentence question: can you imagine the political advantage Mitt Romney and Republicans will try to take from the President being forced to defend that new tax scheme?

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Afghanistan Opinion: Let's Be Clear --- "The Surge" Was A Failure of US Strategy and Policy (Cohen)

Rajiv Chandrasekaran's newly-released book, Little America: The War Within The War for Afghanistan (see extract in separate EA feature) has prompted soul-searching amongst US analysts about what went wrong, more than a decade after the situation was supposedly resolved with the ousting of the Taliban.

Michael Cohen's comment for The Progressive Realist resonates, in part because it returns to the key period in 2009 --- covered extensively by EA at the time --- when the US military bounced President Obama into an expanded intervention. Ostensibly, this was for development and political resolution as well as the vanquishing of the Taliban; in practice, the development and political resolution never followed the additional boots on the ground.

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Afghanistan Feature: How Obama Administration Sabotaged Its Envoy, Richard Holbrooke (Chandrasekaran)

President Obama's eulogy at a memorial for Richard Holbrooke, January 2011

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In late March 2010, President Obama’s national security adviser, James L. Jones, summoned Richard C. Holbrooke to the White House for a late-afternoon conversation. The two men rarely had one-on-one meetings, even though Holbrooke, the State Department’s point man for Afghanistan, was a key member of Obama’s war cabinet.

As Holbrooke entered Jones’s West Wing office, he sensed that the discussion was not going to be about policy, but about him. Holbrooke believed his principal mission was to accomplish what he thought Obama wanted: a peace deal with the Taliban. The challenge energized Holbrooke, who had more experience with ending wars than anyone in the administration. In 1968, he served on the U.S. delegation to the Paris peace talks with North Vietnam. And in 1995, he forged a deal in the former Yugoslavia to end three years of bloody sectarian fighting.

The discussion quickly wound to Jones’s main point: He told Holbrooke that he should start considering his “exit strategy” from the administration.

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US Politics Analysis: A Progressive Problem for Obama; A "Downgrade" Problem for America

The problem for Obama, however, is that to enact his economic plan he needs a landslide victory for both him and his party. The same can be said for Mitt Romney and Republicans. Neither of those outcomes are likely, nor is a return to bipartisan compromise.

Quite what that means for the elections of 2012 is unknown. What it means for the aftermath is clearer, if ominous: if there is no reconciliation of political divisions at the start of the new Administration and new Congress, another American "downgrade" becomes likely rather than possible.

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Egypt (and Beyond) Live Coverage: Mubarak Not Quite "Clinically Dead"; 50+ Very Dead in Syria

1610 GMT: Syria. There are a series of reports of heavy shelling, air strikes, and gunfire in a series of towns in Daraa province, including: Daael, Nawa, Tel Shehab, and Mezayrib. Putting them all our map of the day's events, and a clear pattern is formed, that the cluster of towns just north of Daraa city are seeing a large-scale military campaign today. In Daael alone more than 50 injuries, and at least 3 deaths, are reported. This video reportedly shows an assault helicopter attacking ground targets in the city:

The LCCS provides a possible clue - there is a report of heavy fighting between the Free Syrian Army and regime forces in Nawa. The question is - did the FSA attack the regime, sparking the military campaign, or are they simply responding to an Assad attack?

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Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: 90 Die as Obama and Putin Talk About Conflict

See also Monday's Egypt, Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: Morsi Claims Presidential Win, But Military Tightens Grip on Power

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2145 GMT: Egypt. Rumours have circulated for hours that former Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak suffered a stroke today. Now a Ministry of Interior spokesman has confirmed the report, while State news agency MENA says Mubarak is "clinically dead" after he was moved from prison to a military hospital.

MENA said Mubarak's heart stopped and a defibrillator was used to restart it.

1925 GMT: Egypt. The massive crowd in Cairo's Tahrir Square tonight, protesting military rule:

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Remember Iran: An EA Special --- Three Years Ago Today, The Supreme Leader Draws the Line on Protests

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President Obama, 19 June 2009: "I'm very concerned, based on some of the tenor and tone of the statements that have been made, that the Government of Iran recognize that the world is watching"

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Looking back, 19 June 2009 may have been a turning point in the crisis after the Presidential election. The Supreme Leader delivered the Tehran Friday Prayer in which he declared --- even though the Guardian Council was supposed to be considering a re-counted of the disputed vote --- a "great election" in which there was no question of manipulation. He also re-affirmed his anointment of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as the victor, explaining that there was no way that Ahmadinejad's supposed winning margin was too large to be overturned by any "correction": "There might be 100,000 or 200,000 or 1 million in mistakes but 11 million is not possible....Nothing can be changed."

Ayatollah Khamenei blamed the mass protests on a foreign attempt at a counter-Revolution. Then there was this ominous warning, as we noted it on the day:

Leaders of campaigns "should be careful how they are acting, careful what they are saying". Otherwise, this could provoke "extremists"....The Supreme Leader talks of disruption of "normal life" by "terrorist plots" while people are carrying on demonstrations. If this happens, or if there is trouble with the paramilitary Basiji, "who will take the responsibility?"

If these "terrorist" activities continue, "I will have to come back here and speak more clearly and straightforwardly." Huge response from crowd.

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Remember Iran Flashback: "The Obama Administration Fails to React" (14 June 2009)

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Vice President Joe Biden, 14 June 2009: "Our interests are the same before the election as after the election"

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In contrast to the drama unfolding on the streets of Iran, the key non-event outside the country is the lack of reaction from the Obama administration. Contrary to the position taken by the Bush administration in cases from the Ukraine to Georgia and Lebanon, there will be no welcoming or encouraging of a velvet revolution in Iran. The Obama administration is, instead, preparing itself to deal with whoever emerges as president. Despite the protestations of Mir-Hossein Mousavi's supporters, this will almost certainly be the incumbent, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. While the United States would have strongly preferred to be dealing with a Mousavi administration, the basic strategic and political rationale for US-Iranian rapprochement remains unchanged.

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