Israel-Palestine Analysis: Six Weeks of Indirect Talks But No Clear US Position

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has told US special envoy George Mitchell,said that he was "prepared to discuss all of the fundamental issues" necessary for resuming negotiations with Palestinians and reaching a peace agreement.

Netanyahu, with no preconditions such as a settlement freeze, is ready to sit and discuss matters freely. According to some sources, the issues of refugees (with reference to the demand to recognize the "Jewish" character of the State of Israel), security issues, and borders are expected to be on the table. 

The Palestinian side is not in the same position. It has received no "guarantees" from the Obama Administration over recognition of a Palestinian state based on pre-1967 borders --- whether that is through the UN, from Washington, or through talks --- and a "complete halt" to Israeli construction in the West Bank and East Jerusalem.

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US Politics and Tax Cuts: Sanders' Remarkable 8 1/2-Hour "BernieBuster" Challenges Republicans...and Obama

Despite some hostile immediate reactions from progressives, including a non-binding resolution by the House Democratic Caucus that they would not even consider voting on the deal unless it was amended, Obama appeared to have won the argument within his party by Sunday.

But a remarkable piece of political theatre that took place on the floor of the Senate on Friday has energised opposition within some circles to the compromise. At 10:24 a.m., Bernie Sanders, the 69-year old Independent senator form Vermont, began a speech criticising the compromise as a “bad deal” for Americans. Eight and a half hours later, without eating or even sitting, Sanders concluded what became instantly known as the #filibernie on Twitter, where the speech trended Number 1 worldwide on Friday afternoon. While he was speaking the filibernie.com and berniesandersisstilltalking.com websites sprung up, and at the former the whole speech is still available on video with the comment: "Because somewhere on the internet this deserves to be looping forever...."

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Israel-Palestine Analysis: Washington's "New Strategy" and the Palestinian Response

Challenging the new US line on settlements, Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas warned that there would be no talks with Israel unless there was a halt to settlement building.

Having obtained the support of the Arab League and Egypt, Abbas does not want to take a step back on the settlements. Indeed, he may be going on the offensive. The London-based daily Asharq al-Awsat reported on Thursday that Abbas had "given a green light" to his aides to ask the UN to recognize a unilaterally-declared Palestinian state; however, Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit asked the Palestinian leadership to give Washington another chance.

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US Politics Audio: Scott Lucas on BBC World Service "Obama and the Politics of Tax Cuts"

This morning I appeared on the BBC World Service's World Update, speaking about the politics behind President Obama's decision to extend the 2003 tax cuts of the Bush Administration. The discussion includes Brian Carney, the Wall Street Journal's editorial page editor in London, and American comedian Dave Fulton.

The item begins at the 14-minute mark.

See also on EA: US Politics Analysis --- The Progressives Attack Obama

US Politics Analysis: The Progressives Attack Obama

US Politics correspondent Lee Haddigan writes:

The President has lost the support of his most committed and enthusiastic activists. And they are not about to sit idly by while Obama cruises to the Democrat nomination for President in 2012. I think it was Shakespeare who once wrote that “hell hath no fury like a woman scorned”. 

It will be interesting to see over the next few months whether Hillary Clinton tries to remake herself surreptitiously as the new voice of progressivism.

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Palestine Snap Analysis: As Latin Americans Give Recognition, Where Are Washington's "Vital Security Interests"?

On Monday, Argentine and Uruguay followed Brazil's recognition of the state of Palestine based on 1967 borders.  Argentine Foreign Minister Hector Timerman read the letter sent by President Cristina Kirchner wrote to Palestinian Authority leader Mahmud Abbas: "The Argentine government recognizes Palestine as a free and independent state within the borders defined in 1967." 

Uruguayan deputy foreign minister Roberto Conde said, "Uruguay will surely follow the same path as Argentina in 2011. We are working towards opening a diplomatic representation in Palestine, most likely in Ramallah."

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Wikileaks Special: Pushing Back Against Italy's Berlusconi "The Mouthpiece of Putin"

To tackle the problem [of Berlusconi's affection for Putin] head-on, Post [the Embassy] has deployed a robust diplomatic and public affairs strategy targeting key figures inside and outside government. Our aim is two-fold: educate our interlocutors more profoundly on Russian activities and thus the context for U.S. policy, as well as build a counter-weight of dissenting opinion on Russia policy, especially within Berlusconi's political party.

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US-Iran Analysis: Obama's Policy --- All Tactics, No Strategy? (Farhi)

Both sides are caught in narratives developed not only to antagonize one another, but also to appease their respective domestic audiences. While Obama’s extension of an offer to Iran for direct negotiations without preconditions was initially promising, the U.S. government ultimately reverted to Bush Administration tactics, attempting to exploit Iran’s domestic weakness to obtain concessions in the international arena.  Rather than success, however, this strategy has prompted the Iranian government to counter with strident rhetoric and increased domestic political repression, in the name of defending against foreign intervention in Iranian affairs. So far, the only thing that can be said with confidence about the failed nuclear negotiations is that the real losers in this political game of brinksmanship have been the Iranian, urban middle class and private sector, which have become increasingly unsettled and confused in the face of an economic pinch from abroad and political repression at home.

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Wikileaks-Iran Analysis: The Scepticism over Obama's Sincerity (Peterson)

WikiLeaks revelations that American officials were planning to raise pressure on Iran with more sanctions and a missile defense shield – even while President Obama was making high-profile public overtures to Iran – are being seen in Tehran as validation of deep skepticism from the start about Obama’s effort.

Iranians and analysts alike say the leaked diplomatic cables show a half-hearted attempt at engagement in which the US administration’s “dual track” policy of simultaneously applying pressure and negotiating was undermined by a singular focus on the pressure track and a growing assumption that engaging Iran was pointless.

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Podcast Special: Scott Lucas on "US Politics and the Future of Obama"

The University of Birmingham's Ideas Lab is pursuing an excellent initiative to bring the voices of academics to a general audience. I had the chance to speak with them this week about the work of EA WorldView and, specifically, about the current state of play in US politics.

Questions include: How serious is the setback for President Obama from the 2010 Congressional elections? What are the prospects for the Republican Party? Is Sarah Palin --- and beyond Palin, the Tea Party --- an asset or an albatross for those Republicans? How does an often-polarised US media affect politics? And what is likely to occur in the 2012 campaign?

Have a listen: it may be the only chat on US politics this month to bring in the significance of Dancing with the Stars.

Listen to the interview....