US Elections Analysis: Assessing Gingrich and Romney in the Florida Primary

Only 120 miles of interstate highway I-95, cutting through Newt Gingrich's home state of Georgia, separate South Carolina and Florida, but those 120 miles could be vital in the ex-Speaker's crusade to be the next President of the United States.

The emphasis is on "could".  After Gingrich's stunning victory in Saturday's vote in South Carolina, and with eight days before the primary in Florida, no one can claim with any authority to know what is going to take place in the Sunshine State --- or the consequences of the outcome. 

Consider one piece of political wisdom widely cited after Gingrich's weekend triumph. Florida has an electoral system that allows easy access to early voting, and even before the South Carolina contest was resolved, around 30% of Floridians are estimated to have cast an absentee ballot. That would seem to favour Mitt Romney, as he held a healthy lead in Florida polls for some time, and his campaign machine has been encouraging his supporters to use the early voting option.

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US Politics Feature: Can Super-Committee "Get It Done" on Debt Reduction? The Signs Say No

The "Super Committee"Next Thursday, the Joint Committee on Deficit Reduction --- the so-called Super Committee --- begins in earnest its search for $1.5 trillion or more in cuts to the national debt over the next ten years. Its first item, “Overview: Revenue Options and Reforming the Tax Code", will look at ways that the code can be simplified through the elimination of many tax "breaks" currently enjoyed by both individuals and corporations. No surprise there: proposals for tax reform, of varying scales, have been included in every deficit reduction plan that has appeared since the publication of the  Bowles-Simpson report in January, and both sides of the political divide have made noises over the past year that they are willing to consider changes in the way Americans are taxed to help stabilise the debt.

But that is as optimistic, for those who actually want to see the committee achieve its goal, as it gets these days in Washington. Already, the two political parties are staking the same rhetorical and ideological positions on revenues that soured the debt-ceiling negotiations back in July, talks that resulted in historic nationwide disapproval of politicians in Congress.

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US Politics Opinion: "A Plague on All Your Houses"

Sen. Harry Reid, Barack Obama, Sen. John BoehnerWhilst Congress remains gridlocked, which will be the case until January 2013 at the earliest, the markets will look askance at efforts to control American debt and react accordingly, hurting us all. This is what happens when economic issues are politicised. Maybe, Obama will take a leaf from Bill Clinton’s book, moving to the centre and getting popular support for legislation which Congress hears, but I doubt this will happen.

It is in Shakespeare’s Romeo and Juliet that I find the words to sum up my feelings: “A plague on all your houses.”

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US Politics Analysis: Setting Out the Medicare Crisis

An ideological clash looms over the reality that health care costs are on an unsustainable upward curve. Both parties have different and deeply divergent opinions on how those costs should be controlled, but the Medicare Trustees Report unequivocally sets outs:

The sizable differences in projected Medicare cost levels between current law and the illustrative alternative scenario highlight the critical importance of finding ways to bring Medicare costs --- and health care costs in the U.S. generally --- more in line with society's ability to afford them.

Quite how that "critically important'"solution can be found in the existing political climate remains a mystery.

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US Politics Special: Does Planned Parenthood Pay the Price for the Budget Deal?

Following up on this weekend's analysis of the last-minute deal on the Fiscal Year 2011 budget that averted the shutdown of the Federal Government....

As part of the deal, Democrats agreed to hold votes in the Senate on repealing the health care law and defunding Planned Parenthood. At first, this budget agreement appeared to be a victory for the Democratic position, holding the line against the level of cuts demanded by conservative members of the House of Representatives.

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The Arizona Shootings: The Dangers of Blaming "Violent Rhetoric" (Haddigan)

All those who have come out so far to blame "violent rhetoric" for the slaughter in Tucson have only added to the problem of divided and confrontational politics in the United States. The accusation will fuel resentment within the Tea Party against the liberal left –-- who enjoys being smeared as an accomplice to murder? –--- and only strengthen their resolve to vigorously promote the virtues of overthrowing the establishment in Washington.

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US Politics, Obama, and Congress: Tax Cut Deal Opens Up Splits among Democrats...and Republicans

President Obama; Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnellThe only coherent story emerging after a chaotic week in Washington is that no one is happy with recent events in Congress. Against the backdrop of a recent Gallup poll showing that 83% of Americans disapprove of the way Congress is working --- a 30-year historic low ---, Steny Hoyer, the Democrat Majority Leader in the House of Representatives, announced on Friday: “There are at least 434 of my colleagues who are not happy about anything right now.” Then, noting that there are 435 members of the House, he added, "I want you to know I will make that a unanimous judgment. I'm not happy, either."

There is similar discontent in the Senate, where members sat in a rare weekend session to attempt to settle the contentious issues of the DREAM Act, supporting education for the children of illegal aliens, and the repeal of the "Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell" restriction on gays and lesbians in the US military. While there was some resolution --- the DADT provision was overturned, while the DREAM Act failed to pass ---unhappiness inside and outside of Washington with the current political process is sure to continue.

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US Politics: Why There Will Be No DREAM Act, No Repeal of "Don't Ask and Don't Tell", and No New START

There will be partisan bickering in Congress, despite this season's message of peace and goodwill over tax cuts;  however, the likelihood is that some kind of measure will be cobbled together to keep the government funded by the deadline of 1 January.

The real casualty of the discussions over a continuing resolution and the contentious floor battle over tax cuts will be three other issues that the Democrats wanted to address: the DREAM Act, the repeal of the "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" restriction on gays and lesbians in the military, and the "New START" nuclear treaty with Russia.

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US Politics Analysis: The Progressives Attack Obama

US Politics correspondent Lee Haddigan writes:

The President has lost the support of his most committed and enthusiastic activists. And they are not about to sit idly by while Obama cruises to the Democrat nomination for President in 2012. I think it was Shakespeare who once wrote that “hell hath no fury like a woman scorned”. 

It will be interesting to see over the next few months whether Hillary Clinton tries to remake herself surreptitiously as the new voice of progressivism.

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US Politics Analysis: America Boldly Moves Ahead with "Parliamentary" Gridlock

During the next Congress, which begins in January, we will witness a new politics. There is a change in the way business is done in Washington, brought about by the modern communications revolution.

The traditional role of backroom compromise and negotiation, which epitomised the American two-party system of government, is over. By accident rather than design, the US is setting out on a road that will end in the nation developing a parliamentary-style government, where the party in the minority oppose the policies of the majority administration almost automatically. For the foreseeable future, the US will be characterised by divisive and acrimonious politics on a scale never before seen.

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