US Elections Analysis: Assessing Gingrich and Romney in the Florida Primary

Only 120 miles of interstate highway I-95, cutting through Newt Gingrich's home state of Georgia, separate South Carolina and Florida, but those 120 miles could be vital in the ex-Speaker's crusade to be the next President of the United States.

The emphasis is on "could".  After Gingrich's stunning victory in Saturday's vote in South Carolina, and with eight days before the primary in Florida, no one can claim with any authority to know what is going to take place in the Sunshine State --- or the consequences of the outcome. 

Consider one piece of political wisdom widely cited after Gingrich's weekend triumph. Florida has an electoral system that allows easy access to early voting, and even before the South Carolina contest was resolved, around 30% of Floridians are estimated to have cast an absentee ballot. That would seem to favour Mitt Romney, as he held a healthy lead in Florida polls for some time, and his campaign machine has been encouraging his supporters to use the early voting option.

That is probably what has happened, but the South Carolina exit polls --- if you trust the memory of the respondents -- tell a different story. It was Gingrich who held a narrow lead (34 to 33%) among voters who had decided their choice earlier this month, even as Romney was leading state.  polls by a similar amount to his current advantage in Florida. Newt only lost 34-36% among those who claimed to have made their minds up before January.

So Romney may, or may not, hold a commanding lead in Florida with votes that cannot be changed, whatever momentum Gingrich brings with him from South Carolina and however well he performs against Romney in this week's two debates.

Another piece of political commentary holds that Florida is a closed primary, so Gingrich will not benefit from the greater support among Independents that helped him win the open primary in South Carolina. But the exit polls again suggest this may not be a factor. Gingrich did gain more Independent voters than Romney  (31-25%), but he thrashed Mitt among Republicans with a 45-28% thumping.

Some will contend that South Carolina is a more conservative state than Florida, and the older, more moderate Republican voters in Florida will prefer Romney, as he is not such a threat to the present benefits system. But Gingrich beat Romney in all age categories in South Carolina, including 47-36% among those over 65, and he also led Romney 41-30% among those who identified themselves as “somewhat” instead of “very” conservative.

Even the presumption that Florida has a more moderate Republican base can be questioned. In 2010, Florida elected Rick Scott as Governor and Marco Rubio as Senator, both propelled to office by the efforts of Tea Party supporters. Yes, Florida voted for the moderate John McCain in  2008, but that election saw an exceptionally high turnout, as a property tax reduction amendment brought out many who would not usually participate. If 2012 sees a turnout similar to 2010 --- when 1.3 million Republicans voted in a Governor's primary --- rather than the 1.9 million who voted in 2008, that will play to the advantage of Gingrich.

Most alarmingly for Romney, the South Carolina exit polls have seriously damaged the central plank of his campaign that he is the only Republican who can challenge President Obama. South Carolina disagreed. Nearly half of those polled gave the reason “Can Defeat Obama” as the most important criteria for choosing a candidate, and among those voters, Gingrich defeated Romney o51-37%.

That is the potentially good news for Gingrich as he heads for Florida. Now for some bad news

Gingrich's victory in South Carolina was largely a result of his performances in the two debates in the week before the vote. Like him or loathe him, his turning of the media narrative at Thursday's debate, as he called John King's opening question about his marital infidelities “despicable” to a standing ovation from some of the crowd, was a remarkable moment. Even CNN, who hosted the debate and who pay John King, headlined their round-up: "Gingrich delivers show-stopper at beginning of South Carolina debate".

Gingrich might repeat that level of performance, even though meeting expectations will be hard to achieve, but Romney has intimated he will pursue the ex-Speaker's chequered past this week And Romney has plenty of material to choose from.

Ethics violations, complicity in cheque-kiting while in the House of Representatives, lobbying for the controversial Federal mortgage provider Freddie Mac, Gingrich's appearance with Nancy Pelosi --- the former Democratic Speaker of the House, loathed by many Republicans --- in an advertisement promoting the need to address the problem of climate change.... All of these charges can damage Gingrich's credibility as a serious alternative to Obama, provided Romney gives the rationale that he is only being "negative" because Democrats would use those issues to destroy Gingrich in a Presidential contest.

And then this factor: Florida is a large State, and expensive to blanket with television commercials. If Romney has one thing Gingrich does not, it is the money to flood the airwaves with attack ads.

Those are the two main stories to follow: 1) Gingrich's chances in Florida if he gets close to emulating the broad-based support that he received in South Carolina; 2) the assault that Romney will launch on Newt's credibility.

Still, there is an undercard of issues that makes the Florida contest even harder to predict. For example, will Rick Santorum, who won the Iowa caucus, stay in the race? If he does, he could harm Gingrich by taking votes from the main anti-Romney candidate.

Santorum may calculate that it is best to stay the course. If Gingrich does win in Florida, then a brokered Republican convention becomes a possibility in August. And if that happens, who knows what Santorum will be able to negotiate if the delegates are deadlocked? However, the former Senator from Pennsylvania will be under intense pressure this week, from the vast majority of conservatives who want to defeat Romney, to retire from the contest.

And there is Romney's decision to release his tax records for 2010, along with an estimate for 2011. Jim DeMint, the Senator from South Carolina, argued on Sunday that Romney's delay in stating unequivocally when he would post the returns harmed him this weekend.

Romney's promise to release the returns on Tuesday might blunt that line of attack for Gingrich, but expect Newt to ask why only 2010 and 2011 when Romney's politicians father released 12 years of his tax returns. Mitt may only add to the narrative that he has something to hide, especially as he did not release any returns during his Presidential bid in 2008.

But the real wildcard is this: can Newt Gingrich control his ego, now he is about to encounter a full-scaleexamination of his past record?

One moment from last Thursday's debate remains with me. It is the look Gingrich gave Romney when Mitt mocked his claims to be an important part of the Reagan Revolution, as Newt is only mentioned once, negatively, in Reagan's diaries.  It was not a glance that showed a grudging admiration for a well-made point by a rival, but a look that promised retribution for slandering his reputation.

Gingrich might be able to control his desire for revenge this week, but like Rick Santorum --- who noted on Thursday that  “Newt’s a friend, I love him, but at times you just got to (fear a) worrisome moment that something’s going to pop” ---  I won't be surprised if Gingrich blows his own chances in Florida with some inopportune comment.