US Politics: Why There Will Be No DREAM Act, No Repeal of "Don't Ask and Don't Tell", and No New START

This is Part 2 of US Politics Correspondent Lee Haddigan's special analysis for EA. Part 1, "Tax Cuts: Sander's Remarkable 8 1/2-Hour 'BernieBuster Challenges Republicans...and Obama", was published on Monday.

There will be partisan bickering in Congress, despite this season's message of peace and goodwill over tax cuts;  however, the likelihood is that some kind of measure will be cobbled together to keep the government funded by the deadline of 1 January.

The real casualty of the discussions over a continuing resolution and the contentious floor battle over tax cuts will be three other issues that the Democrats wanted to address: the DREAM Act, the repeal of the "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" restriction on gays and lesbians in the military, and the "New START" nuclear treaty with Russia.  

The DREAM Act allows children who were brought to America the chance to gain citizenship, either through military service or college attendance. Most Republicans, however, view the act as nothing more than an "amnesty" bill and are vehemently opposed to it. Teaparty.org sent an email out Sunday with the subject line: "Tea Party Emergency --- Take Action: Stop the DREAM Act".

The Tea Party's website proclaims “We shall fight Amnesty. We shall NOT go quietly into the night! We will fight it on the floor of the House of Representatives! We will fight it on the floor of the Senate! We will fight Amnesty in all 50 states!” It then kindly offers to send faxes to all 435 Representatives and 100 Senators on behalf of anyone who donates $57.76.

Republicans are unlikely to provoke the Tea Party by accepting passage of the DREAM Act, especially if it is attached to another piece of legislation. Outgoing Senator Bill Bennett (R-Utah) said that Republicans are likely to attempt to craft their own version of the Act next year when they control the House  of Representatives.  

There is more chance that the Democrats, though it remains improbable, will scrap "Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell", the Clinton-era ban on homosexuals serving openly in the military. The effort to pass DADT as part of a defense authorisation bill failed 57-40 on Thursday in the Senate. Some Republicans who previously declared support for ending the ban voted against it because of procedural concerns about the larger act.

Those Republicans, including Scott Brown of Massachussets and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, may still have an opportunity to scrap DADT: Sens. Joe Lieberman (I-Connecticut) and Susan Collins (R-Maine), backed by Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, have proposed a standalone bill in the Senate. Supporters still need time to invoke cloture and overcome the threat of a Republican filibuster. And even with the help of Speaker Nancy Pelosi, the Democrats will struggle to get the measure through the House of Representatives.  

A similar fate awaits the "New START" nuclear treaty with Russia, which requires the "advise and consent" of the Senate before it becomes law. Moderate Republicans Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins, both from Maine, announced on Friday they would support the treaty if reaches the Senate floor. Snowe, however, indicated that she would only vote for the treaty if it was sufficiently debated, with time for the consideration of amendments.

With Sen. John Kyl (Ariz.), the main negotiator for Republicans on the treaty, showing little interest in rushing through any lame duck discussion of New START, it appears that President Obama will not see enactment of his major foreign policy objective before next year.

I doubt there will be little sympathy for members of Congress if they have to stay in session beyond Friday, for even if they do postpone adjournmen,t it is debatable how much they will actually get done. Tax cuts for all and some kind of continuing resolution to fund the Government will almost certainly be adopted, but DREAM, START, and DADT almost certainly will not. And that will only be an introduction to an even more divisive Congress next year.