MENA Feature: The Gathering Storm in the United Arab Emirates (Davidson)

Opposition video in support of the "UAE Five", activists arrested and convicted for their dissent

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The United Arab Emirates’ ruling families are beginning to be challenged directly by a few brave citizens, some of whom are  even publicly calling for regime change. The unprecedented detention of dozens of political prisoners (along with a marked crackdown on civil society) highlights the government’s heaviest restrictions on free speech and the media in the region. Frustration among the educated class is growing — toward corruption, lavish spending on western-branded museums and universities, lack of transparency, and human rights abuses. Among the less educated (particularly those in the north), there is a widening wealth gap which is leading many to voice their discontent, and although the government embarked on a massive Saudi-style spending splurge in order to appease the national population in the wake of the Arab Spring, it has not been nearly enough—especially as concurrent political reforms have yet to manifest.

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Egypt Analysis: "Country Will Only Come to Life When Officers' Republic Ceases to Exist" (Sayigh)

To prevent overt military custodianship, the new president, Mohamed Morsi, and Egypt’s political parties must reach a firm consensus on limiting the exceptional powers the SCAF seeks to embed in the new constitution. Asserting effective civilian oversight over the detail of the defense budget and any other military funding streams is also key.

Yet, the civilian leaders must tread carefully. The more progress they make, the harder the officers’ republic will fight to hold on to its power, potentially using its extensive networks throughout the state apparatus to obstruct government policies and reforms, impede public service delivery, and undermine the nascent democratic order. Egypt’s second republic will only come to life when the officers’ republic ceases to exist.

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Bahrain Analysis: Are the Sunni Movements Still Awake? (Gengler)

National Day Rally, 16 December 2011More than sixteen months have passed since the start of Bahrain's Sunni Awakening, the mass political mobilization of Sunni citizens launched exactly one week into last year’s Shi‘a-led uprising. While the unprecedented scale of the counter-movement was and still remains clear (supporters famously, if implausibly, claimed attendance of more than 300,000), what exactly it represented is as much a puzzle now as it was then.

More than a year later, these platforms remain ambiguous. Does the post-February explosion of popular political enthusiasm in this only-too-recently apolitical community represent a genuine shift in Bahrain’s political landscape? Or is the mobilization tied somehow to existing Sunni political powers—or even to the state itself?

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Bahrain Feature: The Splintering of the "Regime" and "Opposition" Camps? (Louer)

One of Friday's mass marches for the release of detained human rights activist Abdulhadi Alkhawaja

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In the wake of increasing street violence in Bahrain—a far cry from the peaceful rallies of February and March 2011 — the Bahraini regime is attempting to restart dialogue with the opposition. Initiated by a leading representative of the ruling dynasty’s hardliners, Royal Court Minister Khalid bin Ahmed Al Khalifa, the dialogue involves pre-conditions that the opposition is unlikely to accept — most notably the acceptance of the 2002 constitution which has deprived parliament of any meaningful power — and has yet to convince the opposition of its sincerity. If started, the dialogue will have difficulty in achieving genuine rapprochement, as the political scene has undergone increasingly prevalent fragmentation. In this environment, describing the actors simply as “the regime” and “the opposition” becomes problematic.

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Saudi Arabia Analysis: A Kingdom in Trouble? (Fakhro)

A demonstration on Saturday at King Khalid University, protesting conditions and the arrest of female students

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The reality for most Saudis is far-removed from the Kingdom’s reputation for extravagance. Official unemployment stands at 10 percent, but unofficial estimates place it as high as 20 percent. The latest official figures reveal that 670,000 families—approximately 3 million out of a total population of 18 million—live in poverty. Nor is hardship restricted to rural areas: a recent documentary on poverty in Riyadh, Maloub Alayna (The Joke’s on Us) recorded testimonies of families living on one meal a day, with as many as twenty people living in the same home.

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Iran Video: Can Non-Violent Resistance Work? (Jahanbegloo/Toscano/Sadjadpour)

A discussion on 25 March at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace between political philosopher Ramin Jahanbegloo and Italian diplomat Roberto Toscano, moderated by Carnegie's Karim Sadjadpour. Carnegie's summary of the discussion follows the video:

Non-Violence as a Strategic Imperative

Despite the Iranian regime’s willingness to crack down on protestors with brutal force, Jahanbegloo and Toscano argued that non-violence is the best strategic option for the opposition.

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