The Latest from Iran (20 June): Nuclear Talks Over, Sanctions on the Way

Claimed photograph of a memorial on Tuesday at the grave of Neda Agha Soltan, killed by a gunshot during the protests of 20 June 2009

See also Iran Analysis: The Nuclear Talks --- The West Looks for an Iranian Crash
Remember Iran Flashback: 20 June 2009 --- The Death of Neda...And Many Others
Middle East and Iran Audio Feature: "Oil and Politics" --- Scott Lucas with Monocle 24
Latest from #Iran (19 June): An Opening at Nuclear Talks? (No.)

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1141 GMT: Tough Talk of the Day. Rear Admiral Abbas Zamini has declared that Iran will soon unveil 10 new domestically-built frigates and destroyers.

The Islamic Republic's first home-constructed destroyer was launched in 2010. Another destroyer will supposedly by completed by March 2013.

0926 GMT: Oil Watch. The Japanese Parliament has approved Government guarantees on insurance for crude oil cargoes from Iran, responding to imminent European Union sanctions.

The law will take effect on June 27. It allows the Japanese government, which has succeeded in getting a waiver from U.S. financial sanctions, to provide cover of up to $7.6 billion for each tanker.

The EU sanctions, starting on 1 July, prohibit European insurance firms from covering Iran's exports.

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The Latest from Iran (18 June): The Nuclear Talks in Moscow

See also Remember Iran: An EA Special --- Three Years Ago Today, A Supreme Leader's Dilemma
Remember Iran Flashback: Sifting Information from Rumours on Twitter
The Latest from Iran (17 June): "So What?" News --- Ahmadinejad to Leave Politics

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2046 GMT: Nuclear Watch. Julian Borger of The Guardian reveals both the Iranian PowerPoint presentation rejecting the 5+1 proposal of "stop, shut, and ship" 20% enriched uranium and Tehran's five-point plan:

1) The right to enrich uranium, coupled with the 'operationalisation' of the Supreme Leader's fatwa against nuclear weapons. [Lead Iranian negotiator Saeed] Jalili suggested this could be done in the form of a UN document, in which Iran promised not to pursue weapons in return for continuing to enrich;

2) Relief from sanctions in return for cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency;

3) Nuclear cooperation in the fields of civilian nuclear energy production and nuclear safety;

4) Confidence-building measures, possibly involving limits on production of 20% uranium;

5) Non-nuclear issues like cooperation on counter-narcotics plus regional matters like Syria and Bahrain.

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China Feature: Beijing Disputes Territorial Waters with Its Neighbours

Chinese television reports on South Korea's detention of China's fishermen

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One clash with a foreign neighbour might be an accident. Two might be an unfortunate coincidence. Three, and even four, starts to look like a pattern.

In the last two months, the Chinese regime has been in disputes over territorial waters with Palau, the Philippines, and both North and South Korea after Chinese fishermen were challenged by foreign navies and Coast Guards. So, is this just a case of a series of clashes and misunderstanding because of the fishing or is Beijing pursuing a policy which could raise tensions in the Pacific?

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The Latest from Iran (12 June): Three Years Ago Today

See also Remember Iran: An EA Special
Remember Iran: A Day That Changed the Country, the Region, and the Media
Iran Feature: The Week in Civil Society --- From Political Prisoners in Danger to Pepsi's Logo on the Moon
Remember Iran: A Preview of the Presidential Election (11 June 2009)
Remember Iran Flashback: "How Not to Cover Iran's Elections --- The Awards Ceremony" (12 June 2009)
The Latest from Iran (11 June): A Fraud Case Reaches the Government

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Photo: AFP/Getty1940 GMT: Economy Watch. The World Bank has projected that Iran’s economy will shrink 1% this year.

“Product boycotts and financial sanctions are expected to exact a toll on growth over 2012 and 2013,” the Bank said in a report published Tuesday. It predicted a further contraction of 0.7% next year.

1900 GMT: The Oil Squeeze. In a further sign of a strategy moving Turkey away from imports of Iranian oil, Ankara has begun discussions with Saudi Arabia on long-term crude purchases.

Minister of Energy Taner Yildiz said today, "Talks with Saudi Arabia on long-term crude oil purchases have started. This doesn't concern only [Turkish refiner] Tupras but also concerns Saudi Arabia's Aramco. Talks are still going on; they will discuss the quantities between them."

On Monday, the US said it would exempt Turkey from financial sanctions because it has cut purchases of Tehran's oil. A report this week indicated that Turkish imports fell 45% between March and May.

A US diplomat indicated that Washington granted the waiver with the expectation of further cuts, "So Turkey now has 180 days, Tupras has 180 days to take a look at its oil situation to decide - can it reduce further, can it get to zero? - what it needs to do."

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Iran Audio Feature: "Tehran's Troubled Relationship with China" --- Scott Lucas with Monocle 24

I spoke for more than 10 minutes last night with Monocle 24 Radio about the state of Iran's relations with China.

The starting point was this week's cancellation by Iran of a $2 billion contract for China to build a dam, but discussion soon widened to Iran-Chinese relations, the effects of sanctions, and the state of the Iranian economy, including the role of the Revolutionary Guards.

To get to the discussion:

1. Go to Monocle 24's "Timeshift" page.
2. Click "Filter Monocle 24", tick "The Monocle Daily", and click "Apply Changes".
3. Select the programme for 31 May.
4. The item is at the start of the programme, after the 30-second Monocle 24 identification.  

The Latest from Iran (29 May): Putting Parliament in Place

Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani tells his defeated challenger, Gholam Ali Haddad Adel: "Even if Mojtaba [Khamenei, son of the Supreme Leader] cherishes you, this will be your fate for some time!" (Cartoon: Nikahang Kowsar)

See also Iran Letter: An Imprisoned Blogger Writes the Supreme Leader
The Latest from Iran (28 May): No More Nice Guy --- Tehran Shifts Line on Nuke Talks

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2024 GMT: CyberWatch. Iran’s Computer Emergency Response Team Coordination Centre has issued a warning about the data-mining virus Flame, saying it is potentially more harmful than the 2010 Stuxnet virus, which affected the infrastructure for the Islamic Republic’s nuclear enrichment programme.

In contrast to Stuxnet, Flame is designed not to do damage but to collect information.

An Iranian cyber defense official, Kamran Napelian, claimed, "[Flame's] encryption has a special pattern which you only see coming from Israel. Unfortunately, they are very powerful in the field of I.T.”

Napelian said he was not authorised to disclose how much damage Flame had caused, but he guessed the virus had been active for the past six months and was responsible for a “massive” data loss.

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Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: UN Condemns Houla "Massacre"...As Assad's Forces Shell Hama

See also Syria Opinion: If the Houla Massacre Isn't a Turning Point....
Bahrain Live Coverage: Activist Nabeel Rajab Released from Detention
Turkey Live Coverage (28 May): Erdogan's Dilemma on the Kurdish Problem
Sunday's Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: After the Houla "Massacre", Another 60 Deaths

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2130 GMT: Egypt. Protests have reportedly spread to the headquarters of Presidential candidate Ahmed Shafiq, which has been set on fire:

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The Latest from Iran (23 May): Nuclear Talks in Baghdad

The European Union's Catherine Ashton meets Iran's Saeed Jalili at today's nuclear talks in Baghdad

See also Iran Snap Analysis: How the Nuclear Talks Developed Today
See also Iran Feature: The Week in Civil Society --- Standing Against Homophobia, Defending Students, and More
Iran Analysis: A Guide to Watching Today's Nuclear Talks
The Latest from Iran (22 May): Tehran Plays Up Hope for Nuclear Talks

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2050 GMT: Nuclear Watch. After a bilateral meeting between the EU's Catherine Ashton and Iran's Saeed Jalili of almost two hours, discussions have ended in Baghdad for today.

2010 GMT: Nuclear Prediction Comes True. EA this morning:

Iranian media features the line of politicians and clerics that any discussion must begin with a "Western" offer to ease sanctions. That is the requirement for the talks to move to consideration of limits and monitoring of Tehran's enrichment.

Scott Peterson of the Christian Science Monitor this evening:

"The response from the Iranian side is: 'What you are asking for is ... not what we agreed to in Istanbul,'" an Iranian diplomat close to the talks [said[, referring to the demands of six world powers that include Iran capping uranium enrichment and scrapping a deeply buried facility.

Steps were meant to be “reciprocal, simultaneous, and ... balanced” in their value to each side, says the Iranian diplomat. Instead, Iran was told there would be “consideration” of easing sanctions “later,” after Iran made concessions.

EA this morning:

Behind the public pose, there has to be a significant assurance by the Americans and Europeans over sanctions, on the basis that Iran will not demand self-sufficiency in enriching uranium to 20%.

Peterson this evening:

"This is what we were afraid of," says the Iranian diplomat. "No one is going to accept these things this way. [Giving up] the 20 percent and shutting down Fordow [enrichment plant], in return for nothing? Nothing?"

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China Snapshot: Manila and Beijing Clash Over Territorial Waters (Wang/Gao)

A Filipino protester burns a Chinese flag

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On 11 May, Filipinos gathered in front of the Chinese Embassy in Manila, protesting "the overbearing actions and stance of the government in Beijing, which behaves like an arrogant overlord, even in the home of its neighbours". The incident provoking the demonstration was a clash in waters claimed by both countries.

On 8 April, a Philippines warship and two Chinese patrol boats confronted each other off the Scarborough Shoal (Huangyan Island for China; Kulumpol ng Panatag for the Philippines) after the Philippine navy tried to arrest two Chinese fishermen. The Philippine side claimed these Chinese fishing boats were in their waters; the Chinese disputed this.

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China Video Snapshot: Fishermen Clash with South Korean Coast Guard

Background to this month's incident: an Al Jazeera report on conflict between Chinese fishermen and South Korean authorities in 2010

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On 30 April, a Chinese fishing boat was intercepted by the South Korean coast guard. During the subsequent clash, three Koreans were injured, one fell overboard, and three more hid in the water. Eventually, the Chinese crew was subdued, and nine crew were arrested.

Christina Wang and Iris Gao write their first article for EA WorldView:

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