Iran Analysis: "The Green Movement Has Achieved Its Goal" (Jahanbegloo)

No doubt, the price of speaking truth to power was higher than expected for the Iranian civic actors. It resulted in massive arrests, Stalinist-style show trials, torture, rape, and murder. Also, the nature of Iran’s system, with its power split between two centers --- the president and the supreme leader --- has complicated and slowed down the process of change.

Even so, the Green Movement has achieved its goal by gaining the moral high ground, revealing to the world the true face of the Islamic regime, and draining away much of its political legitimacy. Further, it has hastened the end of Khomeinism by exposing the existent political rifts within the Iranian political power.

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Iran Feature: The State of the Nation, Two Years Later (Peterson)

Azadi Square, Tehran, 15 June 2009Today the testy president and his aides have challenged the power of Ayatollah Khamenei. Conservative rivals now dismiss them as a “deviant current” obsessed with the imminent return of the Shiite messiah.

Close aides have been arrested for sorcery and witchcraft, and there is talk that Mr. Ahmadinejad will not survive the rest of his four-year term. The Leader’s deputy representative to the Revolutionary Guard even declared this week that “the current of deviation… is the gravest danger in the history of Shiite Islam.”

So while the regime was successful in brutally putting down the largest popular protests since the 1979 Islamic revolution, it appears anything but triumphant today.

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Bahrain: A Calculated Campaign of Intimidation? (Chick)

With a wave of midnight arrests, checkpoints, and targeting of wounded protesters, Bahrain's Sunni rulers have launched what appears to be a calculated campaign to intimidate supporters of the pro-democracy protest movement that began here in February.

Security forces have directed much of the abuse – which includes midnight arrests, checkpoints, and targeting of wounded protesters – toward Bahrain’s majority Shiite population, instilling fear and raising sectarian tensions in the tiny kingdom.

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Iran Nuclear Snapshot: How the US Media Missed the Important Story About the Talks

US newspapers, recapping the failure of the discussions on uranium enrichment in Istanbul, seem to be oblivious to the core issue.

We reported yesterday, drawing from information from Reuters, that the 5+1 Powers (US, UK, France, Germany, Russia, and China) appear to have put a much tougher proposal to Iran than the offer in October 2009, which led to weeks of negotiations before stalling.

In the talks 15 months ago, the 5+1 asked that Tehran send 60% of its low-enriched uranium, which is about 3.5% quality, to Russia and France --- later Russia and Turkey --- for processing. In this weekend's discussions, the 5+1 proposed that Iran send about 90% of its low-enriched uranium abroad. In addition, Iran would have to send all or almost all of its 20% quality uranium, which it began producing last year, to other countries.

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Iran Snap Analysis: Non-Events, Non-Millions, and Non-Victory on Ashura

In more than 18 months of covering the post-election crisis in Iran, it may have been the strangest experience.

It was just after 9 a.m. in Iran when I set up the computer, turned on Iran's Press TV, opened up the websites of Iran's state media, and prepared to write about the "millions" who would turn out in mourning for Imam Hossein, the third Imam of Shi'a who had been killed in 680 AD by the evil Caliph Yazid. 

I knew there would be "millions" because ranian press and broadcasters had told me there would be millions.

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Wikileaks-Iran Analysis: The Scepticism over Obama's Sincerity (Peterson)

WikiLeaks revelations that American officials were planning to raise pressure on Iran with more sanctions and a missile defense shield – even while President Obama was making high-profile public overtures to Iran – are being seen in Tehran as validation of deep skepticism from the start about Obama’s effort.

Iranians and analysts alike say the leaked diplomatic cables show a half-hearted attempt at engagement in which the US administration’s “dual track” policy of simultaneously applying pressure and negotiating was undermined by a singular focus on the pressure track and a growing assumption that engaging Iran was pointless.

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Pakistan: More Attacks on NATO Tankers as Islamabad Challenges Washington

The fourth attack in six days on NATO oil tankers killed one person and burned at least 20 vehicles. 

The attack outside the city of Quetta was claimed by Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan, which said the assaults "will further intensify attacks with the intensification of US drone strikes" in the country. 

Beyond the "Taliban", however, the political and military story is the Pakistani Government's acceptance of the attacks on its American ally. Islamabad is still blocking the key supply route to Afghanistan through the Khyber Pass. While another route into southern Afghanistan is still open, the Khyber Pass road has been the main supply line. About 70% of NATO's supplies in Afghanistan come through the Pakistani port of Karachi.

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China and Japan: How A Fishing Boat Led to a Headline Confrontation (Ford)

Several years ago, I worked with a talented Chinese student who wrote a Master's dissertation on the "textbook crisis" about Chinese objections to the portrayal of history in Japanese textbooks. Anger over the representation of Japan's invasion of China in the 1930s led to violent protests and Beijing's threats to reduce ties with Tokyo./p>

I was reminded of this all week as the Sino-Japanese tension escalated over Japan's interception of a Chinese trawler and detention of the captain. Amidst the mounting concern --- some Western media even speculated about what the US would do if China invaded Japan --- I expected the situation to be resolved. And on Friday, my prediction looked good when Japan released the Chinese captain.

Still, the episode illustrates how an apparently minor incident can be elevated to the status of diplomatic crisis....

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