Libya Snapshot: Why the US Intervened "Up to 100,000 Could Be Massacred"

"This is a limited humanitarian intervention, not war," White House Middle East strategist Dennis Ross, National Security Council strategic planning official Derek Chollet, and two military officials told a group of outside foreign policy and Middle East experts during a briefing at the White House Roosevelt Room Tuesday.

"We were looking at 'Srebrenica on steroids' --- the real or imminent possibility that up to a 100,000 people could be massacred, and everyone would blame us for it," Ross explained.

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Israel-Palestine Analysis: Another Dennis Ross Mission to West Jerusalem

On Thursday, Dennis Ross, a senior member of the US National Security Council, and David Hale, deputy to President Obama's envoy George Mitchell, arrived in West Jerusalem. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office said Israel's security needs and the maintenance of the Israel Defense Forces' qualitative advantage during negotiations with the Palestinians would be discussed with the American diplomats. 

Back in the US, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton declared that Washington's position on Israeli settlements in the West Bank has not changed; however, the US is not going to support the Palestinian proposal for international condemnation of Israel's "illegal" activities in the "occupied" lands.

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Israel-Palestine Analysis: Secret Talks in Israel But Confusion over Trip to US

On Saturday, the Israeli Prime Minister's office issued a statement that Israeli negotiator "Yitzhak Molcho and a Palestinian representative will travel to Washington next week with the aim of advancing the diplomatic process". Ramallah said they were unaware that any Palestinian official was going to the US.

On the eve of the departure to hear “new American ideas”, Palestinian top negotiator Saeb Erekat said on Tuesday that the peace talks with the Israeli government have ended and it is time for his side to make decisions. He reiterated Ramallah's position that there will be no negotiations until Israel agrees to halt all construction activities in the West Bank and East Jerusalem.

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Syria Analysis: A New American Approach?

Last Wednesday, President Barak Obama appointed Robert Ford as the first U.S. ambassador to Syria since 2005. Since Ford is a recess appointment, he can serve only until the end of the next session of Congress, which will likely be in December 2011.

On Sunday, the Kuwaiti al-Rai newspaper reported that Washington has been in secret contact with Syrian officials in the hope for reaching a comprehensive peace agreement between Israel and Damascus. Sources quoted Obama adviser Dennis Ross as saying that "Syria is ready to move away from Iran and reduce relations with Hezbollah and Hamas, and work with the United States in the fight against terrorism".

If this is true, then is the White House trying to undertake the new track as an alternative to the deadlocked Israeli-Palestinian peace process? The approach is not new --- this has been evaluated since Obama became President --- but it never reached the top of the agenda.

So the Administration may now be using Damascus to bring fresh blood to the "hopeless Middle East", amidst an analysis that a new Middle East war could emerge if Obama cannot break the deadlock between Israelis and Palestinians. But will Washington be ready to persist with the new approach?

Iran, Sanctions, and War: The Obama Administration Spins Out of Control

Many may perceive the message in Thursday's New York Times article --- again, even though there is no evidence that the "senior Administration official" is presenting an agreed point of view --- as one advocating military action.

That's pretty stupid, given that others in the Administration --- like the head of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Mike Mullen --- have been trying to talk down the idea of military intervention and have been reminding the Israelis that the US Government is opposed to an airstrike on Iran.

It's not even a sensible political manoeuvre. The Ahmadinejad Government is likely to seize upon this as proof of America's hypocrisy --- they talk negotiations, but they mean conflict --- and unrelenting hostility towards the Iranian people. Rather than fold to the mounting economic pressure that the Administration official envisages, the Government and the Supreme Leader will use this further sign of the "enemy" to try and rally support to offset the economic difficulties.

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Israel-Palestine: Netanyahu Rejects Obama's Plan A --- No Plan B Before Mid-November (Rozen)

Behind the scenes, the Obama administration is still absorbing the fact that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has to date rejected a proposed American compromise package that would have offered various security and other assurances to Israel in exchange for a 60-day renewal of a partial West Bank settlement freeze that expired last month. 

The American team is said to be frustrated and upset at Netanyahu’s dismissal to date of the package, which was drafted by the NSC’s Dennis Ross in close consultation with Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak and Israeli negotiator Yitzhak Molho. 

“They’re really upset,” one Washington Middle East hand in close contact with administration officials said Tuesday. “At the end of the day, they made this incredibly good faith effort to keep Bibi at the table.” And Bibi proved as yet unwilling to budge."

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