Wednesday
Nov162011
Syria Special: "Phase 3" --- Consolidating the Opposition, Moving to Armed Conflict
Wednesday, November 16, 2011 at 13:36 | James Miller in EA Middle East and Turkey, Middle East and Iran
Neither Emile Hokayem nor EA is saying that the peaceful protesters will pick up arms and join a civil war. What we may be looking at, however, is a situation with similarities to Yemen, where a militarised wing of the opposition begins to attack the regime in order protect a peaceful protest movement.
In any case, the Free Syrian Army is clearly growing and is more organised and far more aggressive. The protests are still large and widespread, and the rate of military defections appears to be accelerating. This third phase, a bloody phase, may be the decisive one.