Israel-Palestine Analysis: Ramallah's International Gains v. West Jerusalem's Version of "Peace"

The Palestinian Authority's chief negotiator Saeb Erekat, without offering details, said Sunday that about ten more European Union capitals will upgrade the status of Palestinian delegations in the near future:

The Israelis are afraid that the issue of recognition of a Palestinian state would enter the EU. We urge the international community to salvage the two-state solution by recognizing a Palestinian state on the 1967 borders.

The best description of Ramallah's expectations from the international developments came from a PA official who talked to The Jerusalem Post. He said that the Palestinian pursuit of international recognition will shift the conflict from one over “occupied Palestinian territories” to one over an “occupied state with defined borders".

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WikiLeaks and Egypt: Shame About That Internal Repression

Last February, the US Ambassador in Cairo sent this "scene-setter" for the visit of the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Admiral Mike Mullen, to Egypt.

The priorities in the cable are telling. President Obama's heralded Cairo speech, delivered in June 2009, is the platform for Eight months after President Obama's heralded Cairo speech, for "our Strategic Dialogue and...a new framework for regular bilateral meetings with the Egyptians to explore areas for cooperation and coordination, including examining our respective assessments of strategic threats such as Iran".

But wait a minute. Didn't Obama also speak about the merits of open societies, with political participation and respect for all religions? In the 12th of 14 paragraphs, the cable finally notes the internal situation. It opens with the aspiration, "We continue to promote democratic reform in Egypt, including the expansion of political freedom and pluralism, and respect for human rights", and ends with reality: "The GOE has also used the Emergency Law to target political activity by the Muslim Brotherhood, bloggers and labor demonstrators. The Interior Ministry suppresses political opposition through arrests, harassment and intimidation."

(Interesting Postscript: This week, Al-Ahram published an opinion piece from the head of the European Union delegation to Cairo, Marc Franco. Days after the disputed Egyptian elections, Franco enthused, "Looking back over the last few years, it is only fair to say that Egypt has made courageous steps towards promoting a culture of human rights at all levels of Egyptian society.")

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Wikileaks and Iran: Europe, Ahmadinejad, and The Worst Inauguration Protest Ever

The Europeans were going to convert their unknown dissent into known dissent if the President --- who had no idea, as he was being inaugurated, that a non-protest was occurring over his possible non-election --- mentioning the killing of Jews, past or future.

Well, not quite:

[French official] Paucelle admitted that since non-Muslims had never before received an invitation to the inauguration ceremony presided over by the Supreme Leader, EU diplomats in Tehran have never entered the building where the event will take place, and so they are not sure how they will stage their walk-out, logistically, should they need to do so. They are worried that the doors may be locked.

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Turkey in the Axis of Radicalism? An Alternative View of Europe (Dedeoglu)

If cooperation between France and the UK compels Germany to reinforce ties with Russia, then we will witness a real axis shift within the EU. If that happens, the debates on Turkey will also change as the “non à la Turquie” front collapses. The EU member countries may start competing with each other through Turkey, and some countries may stop refusing Turkey’s accession and while others increase their level of opposition.

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The Latest from Iran (27 October): In Transit

2130 GMT: Corruption Watch. According to Peyke Iran, former Minister of Interior Mostafa Pourmohammadi has said that, on behalf of the Supreme Leader, consideration of some files of economic fraud has been postponed.

2115 GMT: Rafsanjani vs. the Islamic Republic? Hossein Salami, the deputy commander of the Revolutionary Guard, has declared that if Islamic values disintegrate, Iran will proceed to a collapse.

So who could pose such a threat to Islamic values? Khabar Online has an intriguing reference: the arrest of sedition leaders was discussed in the National Security Council, but President Ahmadinejad did not present documents for his allegations against former President Hashemi Rafsanjani.

2045 GMT: The Khamenei Roadshow. So what did the Supreme Leader do on the 9th day of his stay in Qom?

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Israel's Man on a Mission: Foreign Minister Lieberman vs. Europeans

On Sunday, President Shimon Peres, Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu, and Defense Minister Ehud Barak welcomed French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner and Spanish Foreign Minister Miguel Moratinos.

The Europeans asked Israeli decision-makers to make their mark in history by achieving a two-state solution through direct talks. Kouchner told Peres, "We're optimistic. It takes time, it always takes time in this region, but this is a delicate moment where we can make an effort and make progress in direct talks and in peace."

Moratinos added, "We are optimistic in light of what happened in the last month, despite the difficulties and concerns of the two sides, but both sides sent a clear and strong message to the international community that they want to keep up the momentum, keep an open door to direct talks, and they are ready to move on to significant matters."

Then a more dramatic moment came. In a separate meeting, Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman gave a response to the Ministers that was similar to Barak's in substance but far different in tone. Lieberman explicitly accused the European Union of "appeasing" Iran and other radicals and of leaving its ally alone as they did before the beginning of the Second World War. "We have no intention of becoming 2010's Czechoslovakia and will insist on Israel's vital interests," said Lieberman.

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Iran Feature: Top Tehran Analyst Zibakalam "Sanctions Have Worked"

These remarks from Professor Sadegh Zibakalam, one of Iran's top analysts of international affairs are striking, especially when set against President Ahmadinejad's all-is-well assurances. They were featured in Aftab News last week:

We should not wonder why the Koreans have joined the group of countries sanctioning us....South Korea exports $40 billion worth of car parts to the United States. Should Korea not give into American pressure, it could lose the American market....

I believe the next countries to sanction Iran will be China and Turkey....Turkey exports $15 billion to the 25 countries of the European Union each year. Should the EU give Turkey trouble and should Turkey be forced to choose between Iran and the EU, it is only natural that the Turks will choose them, just like...when Japan and South Korea chose to do so.

It would be most unpleasant if the Americans make trouble for the Chinese....China has for some time decreased its investments in and oil purchases from Iran. There was a time when we were the second-largest oil exporter to China in the Persian Gulf region, but today we come in eighth. Our oil exports to China have decreased to 200,000 barrels per day from 800,000 barrels per day.

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