Iran Today: Supreme Leader Losing Control of the Presidential Election?

See also EA's Guide To Iran's June 2013 Presidential Election
Iran Analysis: Presidential Election --- Rafsanjani and Khatami Put Supreme Leader in a Corner
Tuesday's Iran Today: The Presidential Campaign Formally Opens

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Presidential Election Watch: Assessing Rafsanjani's Candidacy

A cryptic message on President Rafsanjani's website today: "Do not say no to the good prayers (wishes) of the people!"

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The Latest from Iran (2 October): A Currency in Free Fall?

The scene in the Tehran currency market today

See also Iran Audio Feature: Can Iraq Stop Tehran Flying Weapons to Syria? --- Scott Lucas with Monocle 24
Monday's The Latest from Iran (1 October): Can the "Resistance Economy" Continue to Resist?

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1929 GMT: Ahmadinejad Statement of the Day. An EA correspondent draws up an important segment from the President's press conference, in which Ahmadinejad effectively said "Back Me or Sack Me": "I was somewhere and said, 'If you want me to, I'm ready to write a sentence, and we go away.'"

Our correspondent explains, "'Somewhere' is the Supreme Leader's house or office." amd looks at the 2:24 mark in this video to assess, "Ahmadinejad has definitely threatened to step back if necessary."

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The Latest from Iran (28 August): The Propaganda Display at the Summit

The car in which an Iranian nuclear scientist was killed is displayed atop a platform at the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting Conference Center (Photo: Barbara Slavin)

See also The Latest from Iran (27 August): Meanwhile, Away from the Non-Aligned Summit....

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2035 GMT: Sedition Watch. Yadollah Javani, the head of the Political Bureau of the Revolutionary Guards, has declared that former President Mohammad Khatami was the head of the 2009 "sedition" and pronounced that the system will not allow him 2 run for office again.

1900 GMT: Tough Talk of the Day. General Massoud Jazayeri, the deputy head of armed forces, has said the Islamic Republic will hit back at the blocking of Iran's assets by the US:

If it takes 50 years, we will take back the frozen assets in the US even if by force.

The blocking of the assets of the Islamic Republic of Iran is economic terrorism and financial theft in which, unfortunately, the US is adroit like in other forms of terrorism and physical elimination of human beings.

They should be sure that we will seize back our assets from the Great Satan. It will not take long before the tables are turned to Iran's interests and the evil regime of the US will have to give many times more than Iran's frozen assets back [to the Islamic Republic] and the American people should take note of this issue.

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The Latest from Iran (25 August): Bigging Up the Non-Aligned Summit

See also Iran Feature: Kafka in the Islamic Republic --- An Interview with Cartoonist Mana Neyestani
The Latest from Iran (24 August): Nuclear Talks Resume With IAEA

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1522 GMT: The House Arrests. Prominent Tehran-based analyst Sadegh Zibakalam has said that the house arrests of opposition figures Mir Hossein Mousavi, Zahra Rahnavard, and Mehdi Karroubi are "useless" and that Mousavi's popularity remains unchanged: "Mousavi and Rahnavard cannot be eliminated from people's minds."

1520 GMT: Economy Watch. Revolutionary Guards commander Mohammad Jafar Assadi has said the Iranian economy is "in the situation of Shaab Abi Taleb", the 7th-century conflict in which Prophet Mohammad and his followers were forced to live under an economic and social blockade for three years.

The Supreme Leader, who has called for a "resistance economy", had dismissed the allusion in January.

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Remember Iran Flashback: 16 June 2009 --- A Compromise by the Regime?

Wounded Protester, 15 June 20092220 GMT: Politically, the evening highlight appears to be the Supreme Leader's meeting with representatives of the four Presidential campaigns, calling for them to join together for "national unity". The move seems to be more of an attempt to buy some more political time while the Guardian Council tries to sort out its options --- all candidates will have been told of the necessity to keep demonstrations non-violent and non-threatening to the regime.

Elsewhere, chatter about gatherings has died down (it is, after all, 3 a.m. in Iran), so the hope is that there will be none of the violence that was feared earlier today.

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The Latest from Iran (10 May): Supreme Leader Comments on Detained Mousavi and Karroubi

2020 GMT: Sanctions Watch. For weeks, we have questioned public proclamation of India defying sanctions and increasing oil shipments from Iran, arguing that private discussions were weaning Delhi off Tehran's crude with assurances of alternative supplies.

Confirmation comes today in the report that India's oil imports from Tehran fell about 34% in April compared with March.

Reflecting the Government-to-Government talks between Washington and Delhi, including a visit by US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton this week, State-run buyers are at the forefront of reductions, leaving privately-owned Essar the biggest Indian client of Iran.

India's total oil imports from Iran in April fell to about 269,000 barrels per day (bpd) from 409,000 bpd in March and from about 449,000 bpd in April 2011.

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Iran Feature: The Battle to Become Speaker of Parliament

Larijani (left) and Haddad Adel (right)The political outcome of the Parliamentary elections may be a "mish-mash", with the Supreme Leader as the likely victor in his ability to control the legislature as well as the President, but the first battle of the new Majlis is shaping up --- and it's not directly about Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

Current Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, despite his allegiance to Ayatollah Khamenei, faces a serious challenge for his position. Unsurprisingly, his challenges to the Government have aroused the animosity of Ahmadinejad supporters, and he now has to contend with the alternative of Gholam Ali Haddad Adel --- former Speaker of Parliament, officially the top vote-getter in Tehran's Parliamentary ballot, and a member of the Supreme Leader's inner circle (his daughter is married to Khamenei's son Mojtaba).

An Iranian correspondent for EA surveys the situation....

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The Latest from Iran (23 April): "We Are the Inspiration for the Arab Spring"

See also The Latest from Iran (22 April): A Lull in the Politics

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Iraq PM Maliki & President Ahmadinejad2019 GMT: Elections Watch. More than seven weeks after the first round of Parliamentary elections --- and 11 days before the second round --- we finally have a claimed breakdown of the affiliation of those elected.

MP Asadollah Badamchian, quoting from a Ministry of Intelligence report, gives these figures for the 225 candidates elected in the first round: 64 are from the Unity Front, only nine from the Islamic Constancy Front headed by Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi, 50 are on the lists of both the Unity Front and the Constancy Front, and 14 are from the Steadfastness Front linked to conservative politician Mohsen Rezaei. There are 35 reformists, 39 "independents, and 14 Sunnis.

The other 65 MPs will be elected in the second round on 4 May.

2011 GMT: Abolfazl Qadyani, a senior member of the reformist Mojahedin of Islamic Revolution, has used a court appearance to declare that the Supreme Leader "has dealt the biggest blow to the nezam (system)....He is the true taghout (false idol)."

Qadyani was initially detained on 28 December 2009, a day after the opposition's Ashura rallies. He was given a one-year sentence for "insulting the President" and then, in December 2011, give three more years in prison.

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The Latest from Iran (17 March): Ahmadinejad All-is-Well Alert

2004 GMT: Oil Watch. The Indian Governmennt has exempted payment in rupees for oil imports from Iran from 40% withholding tax, easing the way for refiners to use the local currency for purchases.

In Jnauary, India and Iran agreed to settle 45% of oil trade in rupees, but Indian refiners and the National Iranian Oil Company had refused to pay the tax.

1959 GMT: Tough Talk of the Day. Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani has declared that Israel will not launch a military assault: “They make a lot of fuss about it but don’t dare to attack Iran. They are like dogs that keep barking but are not for attacks.”

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The Latest from Iran (29 February): Playing the Numbers Game

Nikahang Kowsar "Defrosting the Elections" --- His journalist to the Supreme Leader, "Haji, be careful that your beard doesn't get burned!"

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1829 GMT: All the President's Men. The one-year prison sentence of Ali Akbar Javanfekr, President Ahmadienjad’s media advisor, was confirmed today by an appellate court.

Javanfekr, who is also editor of Iran newspaper, was charged with “insulting the Supreme Leader” because of comments on his blog. He was also given a five-year ban from political activity.

1818 GMT: Sanctions Watch. Analyst Robin Mills notes the story, mentioned in Tuesday's Live Coverage, that Iran will accept gold rather than foreign currency with other countries because of sanctions. He adds, "Also willing to be paid in rice, used socks, etc."

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