Iran Today: Supreme Leader Losing Control of the Presidential Election?

See also EA's Guide To Iran's June 2013 Presidential Election
Iran Analysis: Presidential Election --- Rafsanjani and Khatami Put Supreme Leader in a Corner
Tuesday's Iran Today: The Presidential Campaign Formally Opens

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Presidential Election Watch: Assessing Rafsanjani's Candidacy

A cryptic message on President Rafsanjani's website today: "Do not say no to the good prayers (wishes) of the people!"

Presidential Election Watch: Assessing Rafsanjani's Candidacy

The spin and debate over former President Hashemi Rafsanjani's possible candidacy has not taken in his wife Effat Marashe.

Iranian media are reporting her statement, on the way to the first hearing in the trial of her son Mehdi Hashemi: "My husband will definitely not become as a candidate in the election."

More interesting was the claimed reason: "Is there any election? It’s too easy for them (the regime) to change the votes."

Even more interesting, key outlets like Khabar Online --- linked to Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani --- and Tabnak, connected to Presidential candidate Mohsen Rezaei, omit the second part of her statement.

Meanwhile, MP Hassan Ghafouri Fard has hit back at former President Mohammad Khatami, saying he will not be a candidate in this election, and former President Hashemi Rafsanjani --- "The Rafsanjani of 2005 (when he lost the Presidential race to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad) is not the Rafsanjani of 2013. Conidering his age, it would not be difficult for him to run a country."

Presidential Election Watch: Assessing Rafsanjani's Candidacy

Political scientist Sadegh Zibakalam, commenting in ILNA, echoes our assessment of the likely candidacy of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani.

Zibakalam claims that Rafsanjani will register by Saturday's deadline, subject to the favourable outcome of a crucial meeting with the Supreme Leader. This, as an EA correspondent summarises, "is part of the strategy of shifting all the burden on the Supreme Leader and effectively holding him to account for any resentment should Rafsanjani not run".

Zibakalam claims that the Supreme Leader's senior aide Ali Akbar Velayati will definetely not stand if Rafsanjani making Tehran Mayor Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf the leading conservative candidate.

Presidential Election Watch: Rafsanjani Edition

Fars, linked to the Revolutionary Guards, offered a different version of the apparent move for candidacy of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, spinning the story to emphasize why he may not stand.

Fars quoted Rafsanjani as saying:

If I am convinced that in current circumstances my presence in the elections can be beneficial and effective for the system and the Islamic revolution, and will help resolve issues, then I will not hesitate [to participate]; but [if] I feel that my presence in the elections will cause resistance that will disrupt unity and exacerbate differences in the country, I will not run.

Presidential Election Watch: A Rafsanjani-Khatami Surprise for the Supreme Leader

In a busy opening day of formal declarations of candidacy for the Presidential election, the drama came from former President Mohammad Khatami as he endorsed a campaign by Hashemi Rafsanjani, the President from 1989 to 1997 and one of the most charismatic figures in the Islamic Republic.

What's more, Khatami effectively told the Supreme Leader to accept Rafsanjani's candidacy, which is likely to shake the attempts of Ayatollah Khamenei's camp --- already faltering --- to keep control of the Presidential race.

We have an analysis this morning, "Rafsanjani and Khatami Put Supreme Leader in a Corner".