Syria Feature: Activists to Insurgents "We Want Our Revolution Back" (Van Langendonck/Lynch)

Photo: AFPMohamed Alloush is part of the movement of young revolutionaries who began the protests against the Assad regime in March last year in the wake of similar uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt. They feel sidelined by the violent turn the conflict in Syria has taken since the Free Syrian Army (FSA) was formed last summer. An armed group comprised mainly of former Army soldiers who defected from the regime, it is also reportedly cooperating with Sunni jihadis from abroad and many brigades have adopted an increasingly sectarian tone.

“Our revolution has been stolen from us by people who have their own agenda,” says a singer who uses the pseudonym ‘Safinas’ because she still lives in Damascus. “We are not violent people. We want to get back to the real thing. It was a clean thing when it started, but it has become something else now. I am against the regime, but I am also against the armed rebels.”

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Syria, Bahrain (and Beyond) Live Coverage: What Happens After the "Friends of Syria" Meeting?

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Turkey Live Coverage (2 April): After the "Friends of Syria" Left....
Sunday's Bahrain, Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: The Gathering of the "Friends of Syria"

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2040 GMT: A mass demonstration in the Douma suburb of the Syrian capital Damascus:

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Syria Feature: An Insurgency Running Short of Ammunition (Abouzeid)

"Fouad," a rail-thin Syrian in tight jeans who looks at least a decade older than his 25 years, leans forward in a black faux leather armchair in an unheated, sparsely furnished room in this southern Turkish city.

"I need ammunition," he tells Abu Mohammad, a stocky Turkish weapons dealer sitting impossibly upright on the stiff couch. "I'll pay five and a half." He quotes the price in Turkish liras -- about $3 per bullet.

Abu Mohammad smirks. He carefully places his white, half-moon Turkish coffee cup on the small square table in front of him. "They're seven each," he says. "If you can get them for five and a half, I'll buy them from you."

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Syria Snap Analysis: Deir Ez Zor & Human Rights Watch

http://tgr.ph/GAmbSCThis is a comment on the article I wrote last night, Syria Special: Welcome to Phase Two Insurgency, responding to today's news.

Basically, I argue that the Free Syrian Army has reached a new level of sophistication in their attacks, and have entered a stage that will be characterized by ambush attacks, improvised explosive devices, and other guerrilla tactics. I also respond to Joshua Landis' claim that we are likely to see more terrorism and a move towards a more sectarian opposition. Basically, I argue that the terrorism that is on the rise in Syria doesn't seem to be directly linked to the main-stream opposition (a major difference from Iraq or Afghanistan) and so far the most sectarian violence is evident in Homs and Idlib, but it is fairly isolated.

But there are two developments today that intersect my article.

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Syria Special: Welcome to Phase Two Insurgency

Claimed footage of a regime tank destroyed by insurgents in Idlib Province last week

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The new attacks by the Free Syrian Army are the opening moves of "phase two insurgency". The opposition may be a long way from outright victory, but no one in the Assad regime should sleep well knowing that, seemingly out of nowhere, the opposition can strike.

In the long-run, a wiser FSA will weaken the regime. In the short run, though, get ready for a far more violent, more disruptive, and less predictable conflict.

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Syria 1st-Hand: How Abuse Created an Insurgent (Gunn)

Raw footage from the battle for Idlib

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Released after six days, Abu Youssef's feet were swollen "like footballs." The shoes he had been wearing when seized from outside his local mosque no longer fit. 

Far from cowing him, the Assad regime had created another enemy. Within a week this soft-spoken, formerly apolitical construction foreman was organising Friday protests in his hometown of Darkush, just a few miles from the Turkish border.

Abu Youssef's activism continues to this day, even as the settlement of 17,000 people is encircled by Syrian tanks, the country's death toll rockets, and peaceful protests seem a relic of more innocent times.

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Syria Snap Analysis: Kofi Annan - Lost on the Road to Damascus

See also Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: A UN Envoy in Damascus

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The Syrian National Council's Burhan Ghalioun has today condemned statements made by the UN's envoy to Syria, Kofi Annan, suggesting that a political solution in Syria is possible, and desireable:

These kind of comments are disappointing and do not give a lot of hope for people in Syria being massacred every day. It feels like we are watching the same movie being repeated over and over again ...

Any political solution will not succeed if it is not accompanied by military pressure on the regime ...

As an international envoy, we hope he will have a mechanism for ending the violence ...My fear is that, like other international envoys before him, the aim is to waste a month or two of pointless mediation efforts.

These statements echo those made by the ranking members of the Free Syrian Army, other ranking members of the SNC, the various splinter groups, many of whom are even more hawkish than the SNC, every contact we have within the opposition, and nearly every single video that comes out of Syria.

Our assessment - We've been wondering if Kofi Annan is in the right country. Maybe he got lost on the road to Damascus, because from what we've seen, there is no chance of reconciliation between the regime and the opposition.

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Syria 1st-Hand: With the Insurgents in Idlib Province (Los Angeles Times)

A unit in Idlib Province of the insurgent Free Syrian Army issues a statement, 14 February 2012

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Despite the urgency of their armed resistance and the rising death toll across the country, rebels here aren't rushing into battle against an army with far superior weapons and organization. Rather, they bide their time, staging guerrilla attacks and planning for the insurgency they want to fight, not the one they are equipped for now.

Rebels hope they'll soon see an influx of cash for weapons from the wealthy Persian Gulf monarchies of Saudi Arabia and Qatar, both now openly dedicated to Assad's overthrow.

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Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: The Battle of Baba Amr

2127 GMT: A new Tweet by the activist "Sami" who is inside Homs:

Electricty is back to many of #Homs 's districts after 3 days of its cut off #BabaAmr & #Inshaat are still in darkness.#Syria

— Samsom homs (@Samsomhoms) March 1, 2012

Earlier, Sami spoke to NPR's Andy Carvin, and said that electricity, and water, was cut for much of the city.

2111 GMT: Reuters, citing several sources, says that wounded French journalist Edith Bouvier has arrived in Lebanon. French President Sarkozy also told Reuters that he spoke to Bouvier, and she will be flown back on a government plane.

Sarkozy sparked a false rumor earlier this week that Bouvier was free, but this seems like a legitimate report.

2103 GMT: An explosive allegation from a major opposition group in Syria tonight:

Qunaitara: Jabatha: Regime forces stormed the town which lies on Israel's border with Syria. They are not permitted to enter this specific area without an Israeli permission or without the observation of the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF) . The regime's forces killed 7 citizens during their operation, among them 3 brothers of the Marweed family and one woman with her daughter, as well as a man from the Hariri family.

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Syria Feature: War is Good...For Lebanon's Arms Dealers (Constantine)

Free Syrian Army in Idlib ProvinceHis phone rings almost non-stop, and he can barely keep up with the demand for his goods.

The war next door in Syria has been good for the Lebanese arms dealer, and the clamour from his phone promises it is going to get even better.

As the fighting in Syria escalates and pressure grows on the international community to provide the means for Syrians to repel the onslaught by government forces, his rocket-propelled grenades and AK-47 assault rifles become more precious commodities by the day.

Asked where the weapons are bound, Abu Jihad, who asked that his real name not be used, placed his hands over his eyes in a display of mock ignorance.

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