Syria Analysis: Could Hezbollah Involvement Spark Sectarian Violence?

http://goo.gl/NBJmh

Could increased involvement by Hezbollah transform the civil war between regime troops and the insurgency into a open Sunni-Shia/Alawite sectarian conflict, at least in the al-Qusair region?

Sectarianism has played a relatively small role in the Syrian civil war to date. Support for the insurgency, like support for Assad, is ethnically diverse. However, Hezbollah's incursions into the border region, and increasing lawlessness along the Lebanese border area, may be major catalysts for greater sectarian violence, at least between Al Qusayr and the border with Lebanon.

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Syria Snap Analysis: Deir Ez Zor & Human Rights Watch

http://tgr.ph/GAmbSCThis is a comment on the article I wrote last night, Syria Special: Welcome to Phase Two Insurgency, responding to today's news.

Basically, I argue that the Free Syrian Army has reached a new level of sophistication in their attacks, and have entered a stage that will be characterized by ambush attacks, improvised explosive devices, and other guerrilla tactics. I also respond to Joshua Landis' claim that we are likely to see more terrorism and a move towards a more sectarian opposition. Basically, I argue that the terrorism that is on the rise in Syria doesn't seem to be directly linked to the main-stream opposition (a major difference from Iraq or Afghanistan) and so far the most sectarian violence is evident in Homs and Idlib, but it is fairly isolated.

But there are two developments today that intersect my article.

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