Iran Feature: Why Tehran Can't Cut Off Oil Through The Straits of Hormuz (Gholz)

An illustration of General Hassan Firouzabadi, head of Iran's armed forces, blocking the Straits of Hormuz

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Iranian military exercises apparently emphasize three weapons in the strait: small suicide boats, mobile antiship cruise missiles, and sophisticated sea mines. Using these tools, how hard would it be for Iran to disrupt the flow of oil?

The answer turns out to be: very hard. Iran would have to disable many of the 20 tankers that traverse the strait each day -- and then sustain the effort. Iran cannot rely on the psychological effects of a few hits. Historically, after a short panic, commercial shippers adapt rather than give up lucrative trips, even against much more effective blockades than Iran could muster today.

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The Latest from Iran (13 December): Shoes Are Thrown at the President

2140 GMT: Parliament Watch. Speaking at Tehran University today, MP Ali Motahari, a vocal critic of the Ahmadinejad administration, has criticised the crackdown on students after the 2009 Presidential election. Considering why the repression occurred and why it continues, he said that there is an atmosphere of "fear and terror" in the Iranian Parliament because of the actions of some legislators.

2135 GMT: Sanctions Watch. The executive board of Nokia Siemens Networks has said that it will not take on any new business in Iran and will gradually reduce its existing commitments from 1 January 2012.

The Finnish company said in a letter to its staff in Iran that the decision was taken because US-led sanctions "make it almost impossible for Nokia Siemens Networks to do business with Iranian customers".

Nokia Siemens has been criticised for providing telecommunications equipment allowing the Iranian regime to maintain surveillance of protesters after the 2009 Presidential election.

2100 GMT: Economy Watch. Former Minister of Labor Hossein Kamali has claimed that more than 50% of Iran's workers now live below the poverty line.

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The Latest from Iran (25 November): Down, Down, Down

Claimed footage, posted yesterday, of a recent strike by workers in Tabriz in northwest Iran

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2045 GMT: The Lesser-of-Two-Evils Watch. Kayhan editor Hossei Shariatmadari, criticising the Green Movement for saying the Iranian system should apologise to the people, has remarked, "We would rather bribe the US than the people."

2035 GMT: Elections Watch. Solat Mortazavi, the head of Iran’s Elections Headquarters, has repeated that two leading reformist organizations, the Islamic Iran Participation Front and the Mojahedin of the Islamic Revolution, will not be allowed to field candidates in March's Parliamentary elections.

Mortazavi told a workshop for provincial elections officials that the Supreme Leader has instructed officials to ensure that the “enemy” does not turn the elections into a challenge to the Islamic Republic. He said individual reformists are not barred from the elections so long as the Guardian Council declares them eligible.

The two reformist organisations were dissolved by court order last year. Many of their members have been arrested and given long prison sentences.

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The Latest from Iran (2 November): Politics in Tehran, Politics in Washington

1616 GMT: Diversion Watch. Is all this internal politics in Tehran just too confusing?

Well, if so, you can always make a lofty claim about the enemy. Step up, Supreme Leader: "We have 100 irrefutable documents about the US role in guiding terror plots in Iran and the Middle East."

And take a bow, Julian Borger of The Guardian, assisted by the omnipresent "Western official":

A report by the UN's nuclear watchdog due to be circulated around the world next week will provide fresh evidence of a possible Iranian nuclear weapons programme, bringing the Middle East a step closer to a devastating new conflict, say diplomats.

The report by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is the latest of a series of quarterly bulletins on Iran's activities, but this one will contain an unprecedented level of detail on research and experiments carried out in Iran in recent years, which western officials allege could only be for the design and development of a nuclear warhead. "This will be a game-changer in the Iranian nuclear dossier," a western official predicted. "It is going to be hard for even Moscow or Beijing to downplay its significance."

1615 GMT: Parliament v. President. If there was a deal to avoid impeachment of the Minister of Economy and to block interrogation of the President (see 1045 GMT), it is already under the strain of confusion....

Two hours after MP Mohammad Hossein Farhangi said the effort to question Ahmadinejad had failed, with legislators withdrawing their signatures, Khabar Online --- linked to Speaker of Parliament Larijani --- says that, rather than declining, the number of signatories on the petition is increasing.

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The Latest from Iran (1 May): A Love Letter to Ahmadinejad

2110 GMT: May Day Watch. The political crisis and security measures ensured that May Day and worker's issues make little headline impact.

However, seven Iranian labor organizations did publish a statement objecting to the violations of basic rights: “While all over the world, the workers’ show their joy and passion and will to fight on 1 May, and their free million-strong protests against their living conditions shake the world, Iranian workers are not only deprived of the social rights to establish organizations and street protests, they are exposed to the most severe attacks on their lives and livelihood.”

The seven labor organizations are the Syndicate of Workers of Tehran and Suburbs Bus Company, Iran Free Trade Union, the Committee To Restart The Paint and Decoration Construction Workers Syndicate, The Committee To Restart the Mechanical Metal Workers Syndicate, Center For The Defense of Workers, The Committee To Pursue Building Labor Coalitions, and The Coordinating Committee To Help Establish Labor Organizations.

The groups continued:

Any objection or demand of rights by the workers is answered with arrests and prison; the so-called ‘Targeted Subsidies’ plan which have been started by the ruling capitalists with the help of international capitalist organizations, is further destroying the lives and livelihoods of millions of workers’ families, and no one has the right to freely express their opinion about this; with the dizzying rise in the prices of energy and factory closures, everyday hundreds and thousand of workers join the other unemployed millions.

The signatories then put forth a 14-point set of demands, including "the unconditional freedom to set up independent labor organizations, to strike, to protest, to demonstrate, and to have freedom of belonging to political parties, freedom of assembly, freedom of expression, and a free press".

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Iran Interview: Leading Conservative Cleric on Ahmadinejad Advisors --- "Spies Give Them Money. Traitors Give Them Money"

Hojatoleslam Jafar ShojouniIf anyone, Ahmadinejad or others, disregards the directives of the Leader, then they will have the same fate as Bani-Sadr, the hypocrites (a reference to the "terrorist" Mojahedin Khalq Organization), Shariatmadari, Montazeri and others. We respect Mr. Ahmadinejad but reject his obstinacy and the issue is [Presidential advisor Esfandiar Rahim] Mashai.

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The Latest from Iran (20 February): So What Happens on 1 Esfand?

2225 GMT: More Political Prisoners. Tehran University School of Science student Sohrab Jafari and law student Habib Farahzadi were arrested today.

2135 GMT: More 1 Esfands. In an interview with Radio Farda, Mehdi Karroubi's advisor Mojtaba Vahedi gets to the point: he is impressed with the turnout today and there will be more protests until demands are met.

Vahedi adds that mounting casualties will only have the same effect as 1979, building up a rally of mourning.

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