The Latest from Iran (5 March): The Election? So Far, It's a Muddle

See also Iran Opinion: Why Iranians Voted in the 2012 Elections
Iran Elections Snapshot: The #1 Subversive Moment "They're All the Same"
Iran Snap Analysis: Rearranging the Political Chairs --- What Has Changed?
The Latest from Iran (4 March): The Play-Acting of the Election

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1747 GMT: Oil Watch. Industry sources say India's largest customer for Iranian oil plans to cut daily imports by almost 50%.

State-run Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd could reduce imports to as little as 80,000 barrels per day from 1 April, the sources said. MRPL usually buys 150,000 bpd.

The report is further evidence that while New Delhi publicly says it will not comply with US-led, the Indian Government has privately instructed refineries to cut imports.

India, China and Japan buy almost half of Iran's estimated 2.6 million barrels per day of oil exports,

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The Latest from Iran (4 February): Missing the Story on the Supreme Leader

See also Iran Video Challenge: Can You Poke Fun at Israel's Mossad and Explosions at Nuclear Plants?
Iran Snap Analysis: The Supreme Leader --- Strong Abroad, Weak at Home
The Latest from Iran (3 February): The Supreme Leader's Friday Prayer

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1746 GMT: Threat of the Day. According to Aftab, President Ahmadinejad has said at a private meeting with politicians, "I have two 45-minute tapes on my desk from a political meeting on 8 Bahman 1388 (28 January 2010) that prove sedition against the Government and [Ahmadinejad's Chief of Staff Esfandiar] Rahim-Mashai."

What could be on those tapes? Well, here is what EA reported, in an exclusive story, on 23 January:

Sometime after the demonstrations of Ashura (27 December), three well-placed Iranian politicians met to discuss current events. The protests, with their scenes of violence and, in some cases, the retreat of Iranian security forces before the opposition, had been unsettling, raising fears not only that the challenge would persist but that the authority of the Government might collapse.

The three men were 1) Ali Larijani, the Speaker of the Parliament; 2) Mohsen Rezaei, former head of the Revolutionary Guard, former Presidential candidate, and Secretary of the Expediency Council; and 3) Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf, Mayor of Tehran.

The meeting reached agreement on a general two-step strategy. First, the crisis with the opposition would be "solved", either through a resolution with its leaders or by finally suppressing it out of existence. Then, there would be a political campaign to get rid of the unsettling influence of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

Each of the three men brought not ideas but key groups to the table. Larijani, of course, commanded a good deal of backing in Parliament and was close to the Supreme Leader. Rezaei not only had the background in the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps but also, in the Expediency Council, worked with Hashemi Rafsanjani. Qalibaf, although mostly quiet during the post-election crisis, had the base of support from his solid reputation overseeing Tehran.

(It is likely, according to sources, that Rafsanjani knows of the plan, especially given the connection with Rezaei. It is unclear whether the Supreme Leader knows its details.)

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The Latest from Iran (1 February): Is the Supreme Leader Fretting About Syria?

A poster encouraging Iranians to demonstrate publicly on 25 Bahman (14 February)

See also The Latest from Iran (31 January): "Democracy and Freedom Are A Big Lie"

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2019 GMT: Food Watch. Continuing problems with grain shipments to Iran....

The news that 400,000 tonnes of grain has been held up on 10 ships outside Iranian ports has been followed by confirmation that traders are no longer booking cargoes on Iranian ships to transport grain exports from Ukraine because of difficulties with payments following European Union sanctions.

"The indication is that Iranian flag ships would not be welcomed (at Ukrainian ports) that is the guidance that is being given." one trade source said.

Another source said, "They will not load vessels bound for Iranian destinations or Iranian ships. It is not entirely clear if this has come from the government and it looks like companies have to make their own decisions on what to do. EU sanctions are very much part of the considerations."

Ukraine's Transport Ministry said there were no restrictions on Iranian ships. "Nobody knows anything about this," a ministry spokesman said. "All our ports are open to foreign ships. There are no restrictions, nor can there be any."

However, a grain trader said, "The trade in Iranian food is getting extremely difficult as the impact of the sanctions is still developing each day. Ukraine has been a leading supplier of grain to Iran. Now it appears Iranian buyers will only be able to buy with delivery to Ukrainian ports and will face further difficulties in arranging shipments."

Ukraine exported about 445,000 tonnes of grain to Iran in the first half of the 2011/12 season. This included 92,000 tonnes of feed barley and 357,600 tonnes of feed maize.

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The Latest from Iran (12 September): Activist Nazar Ahari Freed

2240 GMT: Picture of the Day. Activist Shiva Nazar Ahari leaving Evin Prison tonight after she was freed on $500,000 bail. Nazar Ahari had been in detention since July 2009.

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