Iran Analysis: Is a Political Compromise with Reformists Possible? (Afshari)

President Ahmadinejad & former President KhatamiAccording to this scheme devised by the ruling regime, reformed reformers would be allowed to play a peripheral political role in the body politic. Through negotiations, media operations and repeated dispatch of messages, a fake and yet optimistic picture would be presented to reformers so that they would move to a position where the regime wants it to be: away from openly challenging the regime while remaining harmless.

In fact, the Iranian regime has a successful track record of pulling reformers and the left into the political electioneering field and then checkmating them.  This is what has repeatedly taken place from the election days for the second Assembly of Experts till today. The regime has lost this game only in two instances: elections that resulted in Khatami’s presidency (1997-2005) and those for the sixth Majlis (2000-2004).

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Iran Special: Ahmadinejad v. The Revolutionary Guards

General Jafari & President AhmadinejadThe news was so unexpected that it took some hours to sink in. In a speech crticising Iranian groups who were importing commerical goods and avoiding customs duties, President Ahmadinejad had stared straight at the Revolutionary Guards: they were "brothers who are also smugglers".

Ahmadinejad had warned last month, amidst the increasing pressure on his camp with arrests of his advisors, that he could reveal information that would embarrass key officials within the Iranian establishment. Last weekend he told journalists that there was a "red line" against moves on his Cabinet and inner circle --- when State broadcaster IRIB censored the passsage, his staff posted the uncut video on the President's official website.

But to take on the country's most important military institution, one which many analysts have seen as a bulwark of Ahmadinejad's rise to power?

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Iran Special: Ahmadinejad v. The Republican Guards

This entry has been moved to the top of the website. Many apologies for the error in title.

The Latest from Iran (30 June): An Ahmadinejad Relative is Arrested

Mohsen Memari (see 0500 GMT)2100 GMT: Foreign Affairs (Syria Front). My colleague James Miller has been busy all day with what might turn to be extraordinary developments in Syria --- a military "lockdown" of parts of the northwest but a withdrawal from other towns and cities, including Hama; reported anti-regime protests tonight of up to 100,000 people; a US "roadmap" for reforms that would leave President Assad in place --- but Press TV has a much different perspective....

The Iranian state outlet pronounces, "Most of the refugees who had fled the Syrian town of Khirbat al-Jawz [in the northwest] to neighboring Turkey have returned to their homes. According to locals, the refugees, who were displaced by fierce clashes between Syrian security forces and armed men blamed for the recent unrest in the country, now say security has been restored in the region, a Press TV correspondent reported on Thursday."

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Iran Video: Taking Apart The Regime's Documentary on the "US Spy Network"

The significance of the programme's immediate claims --- amidst interviews with someone detained long before the spring but also those claiming to have been innocent dupes of recruiters, amidst disappearing websites but also established companies and trade associations --- is not clear.

What is clear, however, is the intent. A couple of individual cases of Iranians pursuing job opportunities is used to explain the arrests in May, even though the mystery remains --- note that none of the 30 suspects is actually named in the documentary. And, perhaps more importantly, it is magnified into a massive, omni-present US operation, backed by hundreds of millions of dollars.

As the programme moves into reconstruction of what could happen to an Iranian if he/she falls for the CIA's ruse and then puts a specific (unfounded) warning to students: "$3 million" has been devoted by the Americans to recruit them, the message takes shape: whatever the internal issues in Iran, it is the Americans who are always the primary threat.

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The Latest from Iran (14 June): Presenting the Morality Police

New recruits to the morality police listen to instructions from a commander (more photos at bottom of LiveBlog)

2015 GMT: Press Watch. Tehran Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi said today that he has summoned the manager of Iran newspaper for insults against the head of judiciary and Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi.

2000 GMT: The US Hikers. Tehran Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi has said a final decision in the case of three US hikers, charged with espionage, is expected Americans charged with espionage by late August.

Shane Bauer and Josh Fattal are still in custody after almost 23 months in detention. The latest hearing in their trial was cancelled without explanation on 11 May.

Sarah Shourd was released in September 2010 on $500,000 bail and has refused to return to Iran for trial.

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The Latest from Iran (13 June): Back to the "Normal" of In-Fighting

1755 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch (Saber Edition). The wife of journalist Hoda Saber, who passed away after a hunger strike in Evin Prison, claimed on Sunday: ""My husband died two days ago, but we were unaware of his death until today when someone in the hospital informed one of our friends."

1750 GMT: Corruption Watch. Iran Prosecutor General Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei has confirmed that leading MP Ahmad Tavakoli is formally accusing 1st Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi of corruption. Mohseni-Ejei said judicial deputies had met with President Ahmadinejad to discuss the matter.

Rahimi has been accused by critics of involvement in a massive insurance fraud.

1730 GMT: Warning of the Day. A writer for http://digarban.com/node/1314" target="_blank">the hardline Raja News claims that supporters of Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi, formerly an ally of the President, have warned the Ahmadinejad camp: "When you trespass the red lines, we will act."

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The Latest from Iran (1 June): A Silent Protest for the Election Anniversary?

Video of Haleh Sahabi with the body of her father, shortly before she died after a scuffle with security forces disrupting the funeral procession

2020 GMT: A Death at the Funeral. The interview of the opposition channel RASA TV with Haleh Sahabi, broadcast the night before her death, has been posted on YouTube.

2010 GMT: Arrests at the Funeral. Habibollah Peyman, a leader of the National-Religous Coalition, Hamid Ahrari, and Hamed Montazeri, grandson of the late Grand Ayatollah, were arrested at the funeral of opposition figure Ezzatollah Sahabi.

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The Latest from Iran (24 May): Ahmadinejad's Son-in-Law v. Ahmadinejad's Advisors

2015 GMT: Human Rights Watch. Seyed Mohammad Marandi of Tehran University explains why Iranian officials are declaring that they will imposed sanctions on named US individuals, including former military commanders and Administration officials: "The United States and its allies, including certain EU members, are violating human rights more than any other country in the world."

2005 GMT: Election Watch. Minister of Interior Mostafa Mohammad Najjar has given an assurance that the Government will not interfere in the 2012 Parliamentary elections.

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Iran Snapshot: Supreme Leader v. Ahmadinejad in 3 Paragraphs

I was prompted to write this by a question on another website, trying to come to grips with the political conflict inside Iran: "At least several high officials appear to believe Khamenei could simply have 'ordered' Ahmadinejad to retain [Minister of Intelligence Heydar] Moslehi whether Ahmadinejad wanted to or not. If push comes to shove and the President simply stands his ground, the Supreme Leader may simply overrule his decision on a matter that’s plainly within the President’s authority under the constitution?"

Re: “Khamenei could simply have ‘ordered’ Ahmadinejad to retain Moslehi whether Ahmadinejad wanted to or not."

Effectively, that is what the Supreme Leader’s office did, through the letter to Moslehi and through Khamenei’s public statements. The Supreme Leader was supported by the leadership of the Revolutionary Guards (see snap analysis opening today's LiveBlog), by clerics from Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi to Tehran Friday Prayer leader Kazem Seddiqi, by prominent legislators such as Deputy Speaker of Parliament Bahonar and the 90 MPs who called for questioning of Ahmadinejad, and by the judiciary with the arrests of some in Ahmadinejad’s office (including provocative claims such as “sorcery” and “exorcism”).

This power play by the Supreme Leader’s office might have been countered if some of those groups had given support to Ahmadinejad. None of them did, pointing to his narrow (and arguably shrinking) base for power within the establishment.

Three “red lines” have been set down for the President: 1) no more moves over the Ministry of Intelligence; 2) no manipulation of 2012 Parliamentary elections; 3) no anointing of his right-hand man Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai as a successor