I spoke with Monocle 24's Midori House last night about the sudden meeting between US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.
The immediate topic --- whether the US and Russia were pushed to confer because of Syria's chemical weapons --- was soon accompanied by other considerations, such as the possibility of a de facto "protected zone" for insurgent-held territory and Moscow's stepping away from the Assad regime.
The discussion, which starts with comments by Geoff Dyer of the Financial Times, begins at the 5:49 mark. My contribution starts at 10:13.
With Hillary Clinton visiting Belfast in Northern Ireland on Friday, BBC Radio Ulster asked me this morning, "Is this the start of her campaign for President in 2016?"
Yes.
With that established, we spoke about Clinton's prospects, the assistance of husband Bill, and why the Ireland-US link is so important for the Clintons in the race for the White House.
Amid international sanctions that have reportedly limited drugs and medical supplies, the Ministry has been criticised for mismanagement and failure to allocate funds to deal with the worsening situation.
President Obama (left) is Really Brilliant. So is Dick Cheney (right). Not sure about that lady in the middle....
I mean, it's not like being the President of the US is the reason why Mr. Obama would influence our lives. Any time he thinks something quite smart --- "Hey, another drone strike will solve the world's problems!" --- that's the reason he is Number One rather than, say, the power that he holds.
US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton speaks tonight about the ceasefire in Gaza
I spoke this morning with Monocle 24's The Globalist --- after last night's rebuff by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of a ceasefire but before this evening's apparent agreement to stop fighting --- about the political and military dimensions of the situation in Gaza for Israel, Hamas, the US, Egypt, and other countries.
Statements by Hillary Clinton and Benjamin Netanyahu on Tuesday night
The US once more returned itself to the margins. For many international actors, Washington is now no more than the backer of West Jerusalem. That leaves the diplomatic space for others --- notably the Egyptians and the Turks --- to try and occupy.
And that in turn not only affects the US position over the Israel-Palestine issue. It will have immediate effects for situations such as the handling of the Syrian crisis and the approach to Iran. And the longer that the fighting and death continues in Gaza, the greater the effect on the Obama Administration's long-term capital --- if it has any --- in the region and beyond.
1935 GMT: The Bedouin civilian who was killed after a rocket attack from Gaza on Eshkol Regional Council has been named as Alayaan Salem al-Nabari from the southern Negev desert.
1931 GMT: Several hours ago, rumours were flying about a possible ceasefire announcement at 1900 GMT. This was subsequently denied by officials on both sides, but the possibility remained. However, things seem far from a ceasefire right now. Al Jazeera English journalist Jacky Rowland reports that there appears to be an "escalation" of attacks on northern Gaza. Speaking to the station she said:
There has been sustained heavy artillery fire coming into the northern Gaza Strip from tanks lined up along the Israeli border.
Citizen journalist @RenaGaza, in Gaza, uploads this audio recording reportedly capturing the sounds of live ammunition, taken about 20 minutes ago:
1857 GMT: Electronic Intifada speaks to workers at the Shifa hospital in Gaza. Ibrahim Jirjawi, a nurse on the orthopedic ward, says:
It's very hard now, with many injured people coming every hour. Women and children outnumbered men, especially with the new wave [of attacks] targeting houses and civilian buildings.
In the last hour, Haaretz reports that Gaza hospitals are reporting severe shortage in medical supplies.
It's more dangerous now than before, and we expect that things will be worse if ground operations start.
1854 GMT: According to IBA Radio, the second person killed after a rocket attack from Gaza on Eshkol Regional Council was a Bedouin civilian. An IDF soldier was also killed in the attack.
1849 GMT: Ceasefire news. The Turkish Foreign Secretary Davutoglu has said:
#FMDavutoglu “ A ceasefire aggrement was reached. The ceasefire will come into effect at midnight” #Gaza
1842 GMT: The IDF tweets that it has attacked an Islamic Jihad site in Gaza, killing Yunis Shaluf, whom they claim "was responsible for rocket fire on Eilat several months ago".
On Monday, EA's James Miller spoke with Monocle 24 about the breakdown of the Eid ceasefire. The conclusion - ceasefires will not work, and the violence inside Syria's capital is becoming asymetric and increasingly dangerous as a result of air raids, battles, and car bombs. This is a direct link to the audio, which starts after the 1 hour 10 minute mark.
This morning, James spoke to Monocle 24 about Hillary Clinton's attempts to create a new transitional Syrian opposition leadership. We discuss Clinton's strong language, her disappointment at the direction of the Syrian National Council (SNC), and the possible direction of both the Syrian opposition leadership and the US involvement in the conflict. The conversation starts at the 6 minute mark.
Closer analysis offers an interesting detail among the tragedy. To be clear, a bomb does appear to fall, causing a massive explosion below. This appears to be East Ghouta, and those appear to be residences, so many may have died.
But those "rockets" are not rockets at all - they are flares, used to avoid surface-to-air missiles. Once again, we have evidence that the Syrian air force has permanently changed their behavior and is routinely guarding against these SAM missiles which have fallen into FSA hands in the capture of many area bases.
An analyst we spoke to over a month ago suggested that most pilots would never fire these countermeasures unless they had a radar alert that they had either been locked onto or fired at. Otherwise, the pilot may run out of flares before needing them. Is the FSA actively hunting regime jets east of Damascus?
Friday, December 7, 2012 at 8:11
I spoke with Monocle 24's Midori House last night about the sudden meeting between US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. 
