Iran Live Coverage: Ahmadinejad v. Everyone Else

See also Iran Live Coverage: The Supreme Leader Admits A Crisis

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1945 GMT: Trade Watch. State news agency IRNA, citing the Turkish Statistical Center, claims trade with Turkey has risen 40% from January-November, compared to a year earlier.

The value surpassed $20.8 billion, with Turkey's exports to Iran rising to $7 billion, mainly due to exports of gold to pay for natural gas.

Tehran is counting on trade with Ankara, one of its major partners, to offset sharp falls in oil revenues.

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Iran Live Coverage: Cheerleading for Sanctions

Al Jazeera English reports on the effect of US sanctions on Iranian air travel

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2115 GMT: Foreign Affairs Watch (Syrian Front). Former President Hashemi Rafsanjani has reportedly predicted that Syrian President Assad will leave or be forced from power.

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The Latest from Iran (15 December): Ahmadinejad Jabs at the Revolutionary Guards

President Ahmadinejad at a public appearance on Friday

See also Iran Letter: Nasrin Sotoudeh from Prison "Why I Went on Hunger Strike"
Iran Feature: "Accept that the Regime is in Its Final Days" --- Dr Maleki's Letter to Supreme Leader
The Latest from Iran (14 December): An Advance in the Nuclear Talks?

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2025 GMT: What's Missing from This Story? Press TV proclaims:

South Korea imports of Iranian crude oil have increased 2.9% in November compared to a month ago despite West’s unilateral embargoes against Iran's oil and financial sectors.

According to the data released by Korea Customs Service, Seoul purchased 814,797 metric tons, equivalent to 5.97 million barrels, of oil from Iran in November...

South Korea halted crude purchases from Iran in August and September after its refiners lost insurance coverage on ships because of the sanctions imposed on Iran. However, Iran responded by using state-owned tankers to carry cargoes, a move that would allow South Korea to receive crude shipments without concerns over insurance guarantees.

Press TV, however, appears to have missed this report on longer-term prospects:

South Korean refiners will cut imports of Iranian crude during the six months to May by about a fifth from a year earlier, to avoid sanctions by Washington, government and industry sources told Reuters on Monday....

"The cut in next year's imports is expected to be by about 20 percent year on year," an industry source who has direct knowledge of the matter told Reuters.

South Korea gave the assurance on the size of the cuts in talks with the United States following discussions with Korean refiners, the sources said.

Such a cut would imply South Korean imports of about 147,814 bpd over the period to next May, since it imported 184,767 bpd of Iranian crude from December 2011 to May 2012.

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Iran Snap Analysis: Military Chest-Thumping Takes Over in Tehran

Mohammad Ali Jafari, Head of Revolutionary GuardsNow the important question: is this chest-thumping merely a complement to the talk and manoeuvres for discussions with the US and the 5+1 Powers on Iran's nuclear programme? Is it the indication that Tehran is stepping away from negotiations? Or does it point to a continuing battle within the regime, with the Revolutionary Guards' commanders trying to win over Supreme Leader and quash the efforts of others --- not only the diplomats, but also politicians like the Larijani brothers --- for the discussions with Washington?

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Iran Special: "Iranian Fighters Fire on US Drone" --- What is the Connection with US-Iran Nuclear Talks?

Iran displays a US drone after it crashed in the east of the country in November 2011

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The significant story from Iran this week has been the continued political signals for renewed talks on the Iranian nuclear programme, not only with the 5+1 Powers (US, Britain, France, Germany, China, and Russia) but also directly with American officials. Officials like Mohammad Javad Larijani, brother of the head of judiciary and the Speaker of Parliament, have indicated --- after issuing ritual denuncations of the American foe --- that Tehran will speak with the US "even in the bottom of hell". On Thursday, President Ahmadinejad tried to seize the limelight --- and any eventual credit --- with his own reference to discussions.

But on Thursday, that spotlight was turned from diplomacy to confrontation. Why?

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Iran Feature: "Oil-Spill Sabotage To Block Strait of Hormuz" --- How Western Media Spreads a Scare Story

How Iran's head of armed forces, General Hassan Firouzabadi, might sabotage the Strait of Hormuz

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A case study in how scary rumour and the "information" from Western intelligence agencies becomes headline news across the world....

On Sunday afternoon, an EA correspondent pointed me to a story in Germany's Der Spiegel magazine, "Environmental Disaster as a Weapon: Iran Is Planning Tanker Sabotage in the Gulf". The article's lead paragraph:

Mohammed Ali Jaafari, the hard-line commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, and Admiral Ali Fadavi --- according to the Western intelligence --- have developed a sabotage plan that threatens the entire Gulf and could lead to an environmental disaster. The Top Secret plan, code-named "Murky Waters" and the classification "Top Secret", would widely contaminate the Strait of Hormuz through a deliberately-caused oil tanker disaster.

According to the supposed plan, Western nations would need Iran's technical help to clean up the Strait, a vital shipping lane, and restore transport of oil. The Islamic Republic, in return for this assistance, would insist on the lifting of sanctions.

The only problem? The story had no source other than the mysterious "Western intelligence" officials who were feeding it to Der Spiegel.

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The Latest from Iran (22 September): The Syria Muddle Continues

President Ahmadinejad and military commanders review Friday's parade in Tehran

See also Iran Audio Feature: "Tehran's Clean Internet" --- Scott Lucas with Monocle 24</ br>
Iran 1st-Hand: Fashion and Politics --- Defiance Through Hijab
The Latest from Iran (21 September): Worrying about Inflation

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1515 GMT: Ahmadinejad Watch. More on the denial of visas to Iranians accompanying the President to the United Nations General Assembly in New York this week (see 1011 GMT)....

Fars reports that, of Ahmadinejad's 160-member entourage, 20 have had visas denied --- another Iranian outlet says 60 did not receive visas in time for the trip --- and two of these are Ministers.

The Ministers are not named, but Fars identifies two members of Ahmadinejad's staff --- Mohammad Shaikhan, in charge of communications and information, and Mohammad Jafar Behdad, in charge of political affairs.

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Iran Analysis: Tehran Hurts Itself With Muddled Messages on Syria

General Jafari & President AhmadinejadRevolutionary Guards Commander Jafari's message on Sunday, backed by this chiding of Ankara, appears to be, "We are in Syria. Deal with it." Perhaps someone in Tehran planned it as part of a carrot-and-stick strategy, with the commander offering the tough posture while the President was saying, "Look, you really want us in talks."

More likely, however, is that there is no strategist --- not Jafari, not Ahmadinejad, not the Foreign Ministry, not the Supreme Leader --- thinking through the statements and Iran's actions. And that failure is likely to set Iran back in its effort to retain some influence in the Syrian situation.

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The Latest from Iran (28 August): The Propaganda Display at the Summit

The car in which an Iranian nuclear scientist was killed is displayed atop a platform at the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting Conference Center (Photo: Barbara Slavin)

See also The Latest from Iran (27 August): Meanwhile, Away from the Non-Aligned Summit....

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2035 GMT: Sedition Watch. Yadollah Javani, the head of the Political Bureau of the Revolutionary Guards, has declared that former President Mohammad Khatami was the head of the 2009 "sedition" and pronounced that the system will not allow him 2 run for office again.

1900 GMT: Tough Talk of the Day. General Massoud Jazayeri, the deputy head of armed forces, has said the Islamic Republic will hit back at the blocking of Iran's assets by the US:

If it takes 50 years, we will take back the frozen assets in the US even if by force.

The blocking of the assets of the Islamic Republic of Iran is economic terrorism and financial theft in which, unfortunately, the US is adroit like in other forms of terrorism and physical elimination of human beings.

They should be sure that we will seize back our assets from the Great Satan. It will not take long before the tables are turned to Iran's interests and the evil regime of the US will have to give many times more than Iran's frozen assets back [to the Islamic Republic] and the American people should take note of this issue.

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The Latest from Iran (8 August): A Short Break for the Olympics

The family of Omid Norouzi celebrate his Olympic gold medal in Greco-Roman wrestling

See also Iran Analysis: Is This the Last Elected President?
Iran Snap Analysis: Scrambling Over Syria
The Latest from Iran (7 August): The Currency "Situation"

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2017 GMT: Foreign Affairs Watch (Syrian Front). Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi has published a statement "announc[ing] Iran’s readiness to host a meeting of countries committed to immediately implementing these steps in hopes of ending the violence...[and] reiterat[ing] our willingness to facilitate talks between the Syrian government and the opposition and to host such a dialogue".

That is not new --- Salehi has said this on several occasions in recent weeks. What is new is the outlet: an opinion piece in the Washington Post.

And what is even more distinctive is Salehi's recognition --- the first I can recall from a high-ranking Iranian official --- of the legitimacy of protest against the Syrian regime:

When the Islamic Awakening — also known as the Arab Spring — began in December 2010, we all saw people rising up to claim their rights. We have witnessed the emergence of civic movements demanding freedom, democracy, dignity and self-determination.

We in Tehran have watched these developments with delight. After all, a civic movement demanding the same things that many Arabs want today is what led to the emergence of our Islamic Republic in 1979. During the past three decades, Iran has consistently underlined that it is the duty of all governments to respect their people’s demands. We have maintained this position as the Islamic Awakening has unfolded.

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