Iran Analysis: Is a Political Compromise with Reformists Possible? (Afshari)

President Ahmadinejad & former President KhatamiAccording to this scheme devised by the ruling regime, reformed reformers would be allowed to play a peripheral political role in the body politic. Through negotiations, media operations and repeated dispatch of messages, a fake and yet optimistic picture would be presented to reformers so that they would move to a position where the regime wants it to be: away from openly challenging the regime while remaining harmless.

In fact, the Iranian regime has a successful track record of pulling reformers and the left into the political electioneering field and then checkmating them.  This is what has repeatedly taken place from the election days for the second Assembly of Experts till today. The regime has lost this game only in two instances: elections that resulted in Khatami’s presidency (1997-2005) and those for the sixth Majlis (2000-2004).

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The Latest from Iran (7 July): A Model for Others?

2010 GMT: Religion and Vote-Buying. Grand Ayatollah Makarem Shirazi clarifies, "Buying votes is not allowed."

Makarem-Shirazi continues with the allegation that some MPs have bought voters w mobile phones, cash, food, and government allowances.

1955 GMT: CyberWatch (Battle Within Edition). For months, we have heard about the Iranian regime training cyber-warriors to wreak havoc on Tehran's enemies. However, it looks like the havoc-wreaking is happening within the establishment....

Three websites close to President Ahmadinejad and Chief of Staff Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai have been knocked off-line today. Hafte Sobh --- set up in part to promote Rahim-Mashai as a Presidential candidate in 2013 --- Tamasha News, and 1Shanbeh are each left tonight with nothing but two words in English.

"bye bye".

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Iran Feature: Could the Economy Bring Down Ahmadinejad...and the Regime? (Setrakian)

Sanctions are biting harder than ever, but business still gets done through the leaks and loopholes. So it’s not changing the regime’s behavior where it counts: on its nuclear policy, specifically, its accelerating enrichment of uranium. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s policies have been largely bad for business and made life harder for most Iranians. Together, that could get Ahmadinejad booted from office, but it probably won’t topple the regime. Iran is rolling in oil money – a salve for all its economic wounds. But Iran can’t effectively tap the wealth underground, given the bans on foreign investment in the energy sector. That, combined with overall mismanagement, makes Iran’s economy is “fundamentally unsustainable,” in the words of one analyst – a “patient with many viruses.”

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The Latest from Iran (6 July): Revolutionary Guards Do Politics

1850 GMT: Reformist Watch. Ali Shakouri Rad, a senior member of the Islamic Iran Participation Front, has told an audience of young supporters of Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mohammad Khatami, "We do not trust the government and the Guardian Council, and if they want to monitor elections --- given the context of past elections --- they are meaningless."

1705 GMT: Media Watch. Fars tries to take the high ground in the current political conflict, claims that the "disclosures" of the Supreme Leader's and Ahmadinejad's followers against each other are "media charlatanism".

1700 GMT: Parliament v. President. Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, in the midst of his play for support from the Supreme Leader, has declared that Ayatollah Khamenei, in a meeting with MPs, said the Majlis has the right to interrogate and impeach the President.

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Iran Cartoon of the Day: The Supreme Leader, Ahmadinejad, and the Dragon (Kowsar)

Nikahang Kowsar on the latest political tension, spurred by the dispute between President Ahmadinejad and the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps over smuggling....

The Supreme Leader tells the Dragon, "I didn't tell you that you shouldn't eat him, I said it's too early."

The Latest from Iran (5 July): The Supreme Leader's Message "Everyone Back Off"

2040 GMT: Back to the Revolutionary Guards. While the headline out of the interview of the head of the Revolutionary Guards, General Mohammad Ali Jafari (see 1205 GMT), was his declaration that the judiciary has given the Guards the authority to deal with the "deviant current", the label applied to President Ahmadinejad's advisors.there is so much more to be considered....

First, the confirmation that the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps was behind the recent arrests of several members of the "deviant current": "The IRGC arrested and detained these people based on a recommendation by the judiciary. These people have not committed security crimes. However, they have committed economic and moral offences. The people that have been arrested had close ties to the main figures of the (deviant) current."

Given that Mehr published this as a two-part interview yesterday and today, did Jafari make his statement before or after the Supreme Leader told everyone to back off public disputes (see 0515 GMT)?

And then there was Jafari crossing into politics, setting preconditions for the return of "acceptable" reformists to the arena:

Members of the reformist camp who have not crossed the redlines can naturally participate in political campaigns. However, [former President Mohammad] Khatami's success in his activities depends on his stances....During the sedition incident [the 2009 post-election protest], Mr Khatami did not pass his test successfully and he showed a lot of support for the sedition leaders [Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi]. At the moment, he has not yet adopted a stance to distance himself from those actions. If he still intends to resort to political manoeuvres, I do not think people will forgive him. However there are other individuals [in the reformist camp] who have not crossed the redlines and they can actively participate in political campaigns.

And Jafari had a glance at foreign affairs, saying that the uprisings in Syria were started "artificially" and were different in nature from those in other countries of the region: "The movements in Syria were provoked by the Americans, because Syria is the only country of the region that has stood up to the US and Israel."

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The Latest from Iran (4 July): Pick Your Fight

2025 GMT: President v. Revolutionary Guards. Back to our main story of the day and our questions about how to interpret the statements of President Ahmadinejad and the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps over "smuggling" (see 0800 GMT).

An EA correspondent gets to the point, "[IRGC Commander] Jafari wouldn't have reacted, if Ahmadinejad's allusions were not so obvious. Ahmadinejad's speech, between the lines, is completely apparent."

And one might add that the Supreme Leader wouldn't have reacted as well (see 1345 GMT)....

See also Iran Special: Ahmadinejad v. The Revolutionary Guards

2020 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. The Speaker of Germany's Parliament, Norbert Lammert, has asked his Iranian counterpart, Ali Larijani, to pursue the release of photojournalist Maryam Majd, detained on the eve of her departure for the Women's Football World Cup in Germany.

Lammert denounced the arrest "not only as an attack on media freedom but also as a striking breach of internationally guaranteed freedom rights and human rights".

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Iran Special: Ahmadinejad v. The Revolutionary Guards

General Jafari & President AhmadinejadThe news was so unexpected that it took some hours to sink in. In a speech crticising Iranian groups who were importing commerical goods and avoiding customs duties, President Ahmadinejad had stared straight at the Revolutionary Guards: they were "brothers who are also smugglers".

Ahmadinejad had warned last month, amidst the increasing pressure on his camp with arrests of his advisors, that he could reveal information that would embarrass key officials within the Iranian establishment. Last weekend he told journalists that there was a "red line" against moves on his Cabinet and inner circle --- when State broadcaster IRIB censored the passsage, his staff posted the uncut video on the President's official website.

But to take on the country's most important military institution, one which many analysts have seen as a bulwark of Ahmadinejad's rise to power?

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Iran Special: Ahmadinejad v. The Republican Guards

This entry has been moved to the top of the website. Many apologies for the error in title.

Iran Analysis: "The Green Movement Has Achieved Its Goal" (Jahanbegloo)

No doubt, the price of speaking truth to power was higher than expected for the Iranian civic actors. It resulted in massive arrests, Stalinist-style show trials, torture, rape, and murder. Also, the nature of Iran’s system, with its power split between two centers --- the president and the supreme leader --- has complicated and slowed down the process of change.

Even so, the Green Movement has achieved its goal by gaining the moral high ground, revealing to the world the true face of the Islamic regime, and draining away much of its political legitimacy. Further, it has hastened the end of Khomeinism by exposing the existent political rifts within the Iranian political power.

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