Iran Feature: The Economy --- Assessing The Real Rate of Unemployment (Salehi-Isfahani)

The Statistical Center of Iran report for summer 1390 (2011) puts the size of the active labor force at 23.4 million, lower than the same figure reported for spring 1390 (24.4 million).  Assuming a small growth rate of 0.5% in the population of the 10+ age groups over one quarter, if the participation rate had not decreased we should have seen a labor force of about 24.6 million for last summer.  This leaves a rather large gap of about 1.2 million ‘missing workers’ who could be safely assumed to have been discouraged and therefore in fact unemployed.  So, instead of 2.6 million unemployed counted in the survey we could have as many as 3.8 million unemployed, in which case the real unemployment rate would be — deep breath! — as high as 15.2 percent.

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