Syria Special: 16 Months Later, A History of the Insurgency --- And What It Foreshadows for the Regime

Free Syrian Army fighters celebrate their overrunning of regime soldiers and destruction of armoured vehicles

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Nothing in Syria is certain but Death and Protests. The debate about whether the Free Syrian Army is good for Syria, or whether they can be trusted, or whether they will harbor extremists, will likely continue. However, as the conflict drags on, this debate is becoming increasingly academic, as are the efforts by Kofi Annan and others to negotiate a peace. No fighters, and no commanders, in the Free Syrian Army are in a position to agree this: why should they, as they ride a series of military victories?

Peace is not in Syria's immediate future, nor is the dissolution of its insurgency. The only questions that remain are how long the Assad regime can last, who will fill the void when he is gone, and what will be left of Syria when all that transpires.

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Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: Annan Calls for "One Authority, One Gun"

1812 GMT: Egypt. In the latest chapter of the battle between Egypt's President Morsi and the former regime(see update 0535), Morsi has no said that he will respect the latest court rulings, despite disagreeing with them, over the parliament issue:

In a statement Wednesday, the president says he will seek dialogue with political forces and judicial authorities in an effort to ease tensions over the dispute.

CNN's Ivan Watson has this analysis - "Morsi blinks."

1722 GMT: Syria. Shells fall in a neighborhood of Deir Ez Zor:

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Syria Opinion: Annan Endorses Assad as the "One Authority, One Gun"

Kofi Annan has granted President Assad a carte blanche license to continue the killing, in the name of hunting down an illegal insurgency. The Free Syrian Army, according to this plan, should lay down its weapons and trust that the Assad regime is ready to negotiate cease fires and a political transition. Statements like these read as if the Free Syrian Army started this fire, the Free Syrian Army fired on protesting civilians in the streets of Daraa and Hama and Damascus, and the Assad regime can be trusted with being an unchallenged military force.

And that's just a straight up pro-Assad agenda.

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Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: An Assad-Annan Plan?

See also Bahrain 1st-Hand Special: The Coupled Suffering of Younis and Amina Ashoori
Monday's Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: UN Envoy Annan Returns to Damascus
Syria 1st-Hand: Not Quite Angels --- Making the Free Syrian Army Work as An Institution (Rafeeq)
Syria Audio Feature: "Assad's Latest Performance" --- Scott Lucas with Monocle 24
Syria Video Feature: President Assad's Latest Interview "I Still Have Public Support"

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2044 GMT: Saudi Arabia. Earlier we posted video reportedly showing large protests in Qatif, a response to a series of clashes between police and activists, the death of a protester, and the imprisonment of a prominent cleric.

Those protests have grown considerably:

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Syria Audio Feature: "Assad's Latest Performance" --- Scott Lucas with Monocle 24

I spoke with Monocle 24 at lunchtime about President Assad's interview with German television (see separate EA feature), considering both the presentation and the politics.

Lots of take-away points, but the most interesting may be the conjunction of the interview with UN envoy Kofi Annan's visit to Damascus today. Could Assad be gambling for his survival on a Russia-Iran-Syria counter-weight to the international pressure upon him?

To get to the interview, go to "The Briefing" page, click on "Play" on the programme for 9 July, and go to the 18:30 mark.

Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: UN Envoy Annan Returns to Damascus

1818 GMT: Syria. Earlier we saw many reports of shells falling on the small town of Busrah al Harir, in Daraa province (map). Now, the LCC shares this video reportedly showing shells falling on the town:

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Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: Annan "The Evidence Shows We Have Not Succeeded"

Claimed video of protests in Saudi Arabia's Eastern Province tonight (see 2050 and 2105 GMT)

See also Syria Propaganda 101: How PR Firm Brown Lloyd James Polished the Regime's Image
Saturday's Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: 89 Deaths, 672 Protests, and a "Liberated" Regime Convoy

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2050 GMT: Saudi Arabia. The Minister of Interior has confirmed that prominent Shi’a Muslim cleric Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr was arrested in Eastern Province late Sunday after he was shot in the leg by police.

Reports of the Sheikh's arrest brought demonstrations in the mostly Shi’a Qatif region of the Eastern Province, which has been the focal point of protests alleging discrimination.

The Ministry claimed, “When the aforementioned person [al-Nimr] and those with him tried to resist the security men and initiated shooting and crashed into one of the security patrols while trying to escape, he was dealt with in accordance with the situation and responded to in kind and arrested after he was wounded in his thigh."

Al-Nimr was taken to hospital and accused of sedition. He was previously detained for several days in 2004 and 2006

“They (police) took him from his car and blood can be seen near his car,” said his brother Mohammed al-Nimr. “He had been wanted by the interior ministry for a couple of months because of his political views. In the past couple of months he has adopted a lot of Shi’ite issues and expressed his views on them, demanding their rights."

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Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: Just Another Day --- 114 People Die on Monday

2005 GMT: Syria. Another interesting pickup by Bill Neely, who is in Damascus and has been to Douma today. He notes that while he has not personally witnessed this, he has seen and heard the shells fall and believes this is real:

Video shows #Syria army bombarding #Damascus suburb youtube.com/watch?v=iFFupm…#Douma

— Bill Neely (@billneelyitv) July 3, 2012

1948 GMT: Syria. It's been another bloody day in Deir Ez Zor, as battles for control of key areas continue to rage.

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Syria Snap Analysis: As The World Talked in Geneva, The People Were Blown Apart in Zamalka

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On Saturday afternoon, as I was following the outcome of the international meeting in Geneva, the video came in from the Damascus suburb of Zamalka. As I watched the 100 seconds, all assessment of the rhetoric and diplomacy from Switzerland was pushed aside; instead, I had to hold myself together to make it to the end of the clip while considering whether or not to post the footage on EA.

The images were of bodies in the street, blown and shredded by the force of a large explosion. The first casualty was bearable enough --- if death is bearable --- but then there was a second, third, and fourth, each one in a bloodier and more agonised state.

In the end, I counted almost a dozen bodies and concluded that a link to the video would have to do --- I could not bring myself to put the carnage directly on EA

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Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: An International Gathering in Geneva

The moment a mortar or shell hit a funeral procession in the Damascus suburb of Zamalka today --- at least 20 people were reportedly killed (see 1800 GMT)

See also Saudi Arabia Feature: The Professor on Trial for Speaking Out
Syria 1st-Hand: The Stories of the Widows
Friday's Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: 139 Die as Assad Talks of "Eliminating Terrorists" to Save Lives

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2104 GMT: Syria Observers on the Internet appear to be racing ahead of the situation to proclaim US support of military intervention.

The catalyst is a statement by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton that the US would "accelerate" its work at the United Nation Security Council on a resolution that would "impose real and immediate consequences for non-compliance" with today's resolution of an international conference for a transitional national unity government, "including sanctions". She continued, "We should endorse this plan in the Security Council, we should endorse it with real consequences, including Chapter 7 sanctions if it is not implemented."

A Chapter 7 action provides for non-military sanctions and/or military action, but chatter is jumping to the presumption that Clinton is indicating the latter.

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