The Latest from Iran (1 June): Through the Syrian Looking Glass

See also Iran Feature: Obama Ordered Cyber-Attacks on Tehran
Iran Feature: 17 NGOs Protest "Government Assault on Academic Freedom"
Iran Audio Feature: "Tehran's Troubled Relationship with China" --- Scott Lucas with Monocle 24
Thursday's The Latest from Iran (31 May): Towards a Diplomatic Crash in Moscow?

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2010 GMT: Clerical Intervention. An extract from the statement of Grand Ayatollah Mousavi Ardebili criticising elements in the regime for letting down the people --- we are watching to see if this causes ripples in Iranian politics and society:

Now I see some deeds and outcomes and wonder if we have been negligent in our responsibilities or are culpable. When our friends were struggling, they had much higher expectations....

I want to use this opportunity to tell the honourable people of Iran, the families of martyrs, and all the people who worked hard that we stepped in this path in good faith, but perhaps we were negligent, and if any of the current problems and failures are results of my actions, I apologize to everybody....

I am speaking for myself. I am concerned about my own actions and inactions. If we all had acted appropriately, we would not have reached this situation. I am afraid that all of us, former and current officials of the country, have to apologize to the people, more so those of us that wear the cloak of spiritual leaders....

Mousavi Ardebili urged the Islamic Republic's leaders to "honestly apologise for their mistakes" without fear of the consequences, as honesty and a serious attempt at making amends would result in understanding and reconciliation.

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Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: Assad Shoos Away UN Envoy Annan

2112 GMT: Syria. According to the Local Coordinating Committees, at least 40 people were killed by Assad forces today nationwide:

14 martyrs in Homs, 10 martyrs in Daraa (Tayba, Nawa, Inkhel), 7 martyrs in Damascus Suburbs (Douma, Daraya, Thayabiya), 5 martyrs in Aleppo (Izaz and Atareb), 2 martrs in Idlib and 2 martyrs in Kafr Zeita, Hama.

According to the LCCS, only 2 of those killed were members of the Free Syrian Army - 38 were unarmed civilians.

2033 GMT: Syria. Two videos released today give an impression of the scale of violence reported in the Hamidiyah district of Homs today. The first, 2 minutes long (before it repeats without sound), shows shells falling on the district at the center of what was once Syria's 4th largest city. The second video, more than 10 minutes of nearly constant shelling and gunfire, as smoke fills the sky:

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Syria Audio: Scott Lucas on Monocle 24 "There is No Diplomatic Way Forward"

I spoke with Monocle 24 Radio on Tuesday night, going beyond the day's events --- from the expulsion of Syrian diplomats by a number of countries to President Assad's meeting with United Nations envoy Kofi Annan --- to argue that the Syrian regime is "In for a Penny, In for a Pound", committed to the crushing of the insurgency and the suppression of the opposition.

That in turn means, "There is no diplomatic solution." And, by the gloomy conclusion of the interview was that we were likely to be discussing the same pattern of events six months from now.

The discussion is on "The Monocle Daily" --- you will need to get to the programme through "Filter Timeshift" --- beginning at the 7:08 mark.

Syria, Egypt (and Beyond) Live Coverage: Annan in Damascus, Burning a Headquarters in Cairo

Protesters in Cairo's Tahrir Square with a "crossed-out" poster of Presidential candidate Mohamed Morsi

See also Syria 1st-Hand: The Stories from Houla --- Playing Dead While Your Family is Killed
Bahrain Live Coverage: Activist Alkhawaja Ends His 110-Day Hunger Strike
Monday's Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: UN Condemns Houla "Massacre"...As Assad's Forces Shell Hama

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2040 GMT: Syria. The Local Co-ordinating Committees of Syria says 72 people have died in violence today, including 24 in Homs Province.

2000 GMT: Syria. Back to our opening story, with a far-from-positive signal from the meeting between United Nations envoy Kofi Annan and President Assad.

Annan's spokesman confined himself to general rhetoric about the discussion, with the UN envoy conveying "the grave concern of the international community about the violence in Syria" and continuing:

The Syrian people do not want the future to be one of bloodshed and division. Yet the killings continue and the abuses are still with us today.

I appealed to him for bold steps now -- not tomorrow, now -- to create momentum for the implementation of the plan.

The real tip-off on the talks comes from Syrian State news agency SANA, in its headline "Success of Annan's Plan Depends on Stopping Terrorism and Weapon Smuggling" and text:

President al-Assad pointed out that the armed terrorist groups escalated their terrorist acts noticeably as of late in various areas across Syria, committing murder and abduction against Syrian citizens in addition to robberies and targeting public and private properties with arson and vandalism.

He stressed the need for the countries who are financing, arming and harboring the terrorist groups to commit to Annan's plan, and that these countries' political will to participate in stopping terrorism must be put to the test.

President al-Assad affirmed to Annan that the success of his plan depends on stopping weapon smuggling and curbing terrorism and those who support it.

Translation? Assad and the regime have told Annan that the insurgents, and any international supporters of them, have to make the initial concessions --- laying down arms and accepting Government authority throughout the country. That in turn means there will be no pull-back of regime forces or let-up of shelling when Assad's military feel they are being challenged.

I will be speaking with Monocle 24 about this at 2110 GMT.

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Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: After the Houla "Massacre", Another 60 Deaths

A rally in the Damascus suburb of Douma on Saturday night with a message about the Houla "masscare", "These are our martyrs, we will never forget them"

See also Bahrain Live Coverage: Regime on Human Rights "You Are Biased. P.S. We'll Sue You"
Saturday's Syria, Egypt (and Beyond) Live Coverage: More than 50 Die in Houla; A Presidential Run-Off in Cairo

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2200 GMT: Syria. The Local Co-ordination Committees of Syria say 51 people have died today, including 11 children, four women and six defected soldiers

The toll is likely to increase if the death toll from today's shelling of Hama is as high as feared --- so far the LCCS only claim 25 slain in Hama Province.

2034 GMT: Syria. Activists are reporting on social media tonight that at least thirty people have been killed in regime shelling of Hama.

Opposition sources said the shelling began in the morning on areas near the northern entrance of the city, after a series of insurgent attacks on army roadblocks in the city, and resumed in the evening on the southern al-Malaab district.

Footage has been posted of some of the victims (Warning: Graphic).

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Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: "Last Chance to Avoid Civil War"?

2001 GMT: Syria. The most important factor to consider in Syria is the large and energized opposition, most of which has remained peaceful, but firmly in favor of the fall of the regime:

large protest in Izzaz, Aleppo province chanting "the people want to execute Bashar" youtube.com/watch?v=NgVlje… #Syria

— edward dark (@edwardedark) May 9, 2012

1950 GMT: Egypt. An administrative court in Cairo has banned the Presidential elections scheduled for May 23-24, "citing doubts over the constitutionality of a law banning former regime figures from participating in political life, said the website of the state-run daily Al-Ahram."

The initial headline is a shock, but at least one Middle East expert suggests that the news is not as important as it seems, as it is a non-binding decision by a lower court:

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Syria Feature: US Officials --- No Hope for Cease-fire So "Time To Consider a New Approach"

Last Tuesday, EA's James Miller, in "Sorting Out The Truth Beyond Car Bombs and Ceasefires", wrote bluntly, "This practice is perpetrating the myth that there is a solution to the crisis beyond either intervening or letting Syria decay into civil war. There isn't. Syria is ugly, and it won't get any prettier any time soon." The Friday before that, we asked --- drawing from Miller and Josh Rogin of "The Cable" blog of Foreign Policy --- "Is the US Preparing for Intervention?"

Putting 2 and 2 together, we think "4" might be in this story put out by US officials through The Washington Post on Sunday: the cease-fire will not take hold so it is "time to consider a new approach".

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Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: The Deaths at the University

2018 GMT: Syria. Activists are still counting the bodies of those killed today, still collecting the names. Beyond this, scores more were injured in many areas today, but most notable are the deaths and injuries in the capital, Damascus. According to reports that continue to come in, from Damascus to Homs to Idlib to Daraa, the gunfire has not stopped despite the late hour.

Death, however, is not the main headline. The most important thing that occurred today were extremely large and extremely widespread protests. Though widespread protest is now common on Fridays, today's protests were much larger than in recent weeks, a show that the resolve of the peaceful demonstrators has not been eroded by 14 months of relentless violence.

And the protests have lasted well into the night, even after the regime intensified its attacks on protesting civilians.

This video was reportedly taken this evening in the Naher Aisha district of Damascus, where large protests also took place earlier today:

An evening protest in Daraa province:

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Syria Analysis: Sorting Out The Truth Beyond Car Bombs and Ceasefires

A protest in Sermin in northern Syria on Tuesday night

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The unanalysed death tolls, the heavily-qualified publishing of conflicting claims, and the overall murky picture leaves the average reader with an inaccurate impression: the situation in Syria is chaotic, truth is unattainable, and there are no real options for resolution. 

Call it disaster fatigue, war fatigue, Middle East fatigue, or confusion fatigue. The likely outcome, after the repetition of days and weeks, is that readers will be left disinterested, tired of hearing about tragedy, and sick of feeling clueless and possibly manipulated.

So, in an effort to avoid this, what do we know about car bombs, death tolls, and ceasefires?

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Syria, Bahrain (and Beyond) Live Coverage: Enter the Observers

A protest in Aleppo on Sunday night

See also Bahrain 1st-Hand: Smuggled Footage of Crackdown & Interview with Ala'a Shehabi
Iraq Snapshot: The Divisions Among the Shia Factions
Bahrain Snap Analysis: The Regime's Propaganda Struggles
Bahrain 1st-Hand: The AlKhawaja Story - Wife/Mother Speaks Out
Turkey Live Coverage (30 April): Questions on the Syrian Front
Sunday's Bahrain, Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: The Two-Step of Protest and Detention

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2100 GMT: Iraq. In a further escalation of political tension, fugitive Vice President Tariq al-Hashimi and some of his bodyguards have been charged with a series of murders, including the killing of six judges.

Hashemi, a Sunni politician, fled Baghdad in December when the Shia-led Government issued an arrest warrant for him, accusing him of running death squads. He is now in Turkey and is not expected to attend the trial when it begins on Thursday.

2034 GMT: UAE. Amnesty International has called on the United Arab Emirates to immediately and unconditionally release nine political activists who have been detained in the last month.

The nine men belong to the Reform and Social Guidance Association (al-Islah), a non-profit organization that advocates --- through peaceful debate --- greater adherence to Islamic precepts.

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