Syria, Bahrain (and Beyond) LiveBlog: Protesting, Filming, Dying

1934 GMT: Two Syrian opposition parties have signed an agreement in Cairo, promising to unite against Assad. The interesting part of the agreement - the two parties, the Syrian National Co-ordination Committee and the Syrian National Council, are committed to resist international intervention. But as Al Jazeera points out, many in the opposition are in favor of intervention:

Click to read more ...

Iran Analysis: The Drone Appears --- Now for the Politics....

Only hours before the Tehran display, the Administration had tried to recover with a tough-guy defiance: "yeah, we sent the drone over Iran; we've been doing it for years; it's all part of our successful progamme to disrupt Iran's nuclear efforts; a drone crashed; so what?" That pose was soon overtaken, even if President Obama issued a holding statement about "the toughest sanctions that Iran has ever experienced", while refraining from even a word about the drone.

Click to read more ...

Iran Analysis: Re-Assessing the Explosion at the Revolutionary Guards Base

On 12 November, an explosion at the Malard base of Iran's Revolutionary Guards killed between 17 and 37 people and damaged a number of buildings at the complex west of Tehran.

Questions immediately surfaced and have yet to be answered: what was the exact cause of the blast? Who, if anyone, was behind it? How significant was the effect on Iran's military programmes?

An article published by David Sanger and William Broad of The New York Times, "Explosion Seen as Big Setback to Iran's Missile Program", offers some clues. It needs to be read, however, not as investigative journalism but as an outlet for US and Israeli officials to put out both their assessments and their political manoeuvres around the event.

Those officials bring us no closer to the answer of whether Washington, West Jerusalem, or internal Iranian groups caused the explosion. You would not expect the sources to admit US-Israeli involvement, and the American officials settle for the line of "an accident".

What is significant, however, is the apparent conclusion of the officials that the blast was a serious blow to Iran's research and development of missiles, killing a senior commander overseeing the programme.

Click to read more ...

Pakistan Feature: A "Crisis in Relations" After NATO Kills 26 Pakistani Soldiers in Airstrikes?

Pakistanis Protest after NATO AttacksReading and comparing the coverage from websites in Pakistan, the US, and Britain over Saturday's NATO airstrikes that killed 26 Pakistani troops....

Dawn (Pakistan)

The United States stressed the “importance” of its ties with Pakistan after up to 26 soldiers were killed in cross-border Nato air strikes Saturday, plunging already frosty relations into crisis.

In a joint statement, US Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton offered their “deepest condolences” and said they backed “Nato’s intention to investigate immediately.”

Click to read more ...

The Latest from Iran (11 November): Chest-Thumping

See also Iran Analysis: The Pattern of Confrontation --- Obama Wins, Regime Wins, Iranian People Lose
Iran Snap Analysis: The US Strikes a Military Pose
The Latest from Iran (10 November): Tag-Team Politics

---

1655 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Farzaneh Mirvand, the wife of detained journalist Siamak Ghaderi, talks about the abuse of her husband in Evin Prison:

Even thinking about the days that my husband was in Ward 209 is very difficult for me. He was in solitary confinement for 34 days under harsh interrogations, was blindfolded, beaten up with a baton and threatened in order to force him to give a false confession.

At one of his interrogation sessions, an interrogator slapped him on his face so hard that he and the chair he was sitting in hit the ground. My husband is still suffering from the injury to his neck that he suffered during that fall.

Yes, for these pressures and other violations. I have gone to every place I could and have told the authorities about them, but they just laughed at me.

Even during his trial, my husband told the judge about his tortures, but he, without paying any attention to my husband’s remarks, issued a verdict based on the false confessions taken from my husband.

Click to read more ...

Iran Feature: A "Son of Stuxnet" Attack Against Tehran's Computers? (Sale)

Facing mounting concern about Iran’s nuclear program, a top U.S. and Israeli technical team has developed a computer “malworm” designed to take down all of Iran’s computer software.

Leaders of the three major software companies, Sergey Brin at Google, Steve Ballmer at Microsoft and Larry Ellison at Oracle have been working with Israel’s top cyber warriors and have now come up with new version of a Stuxnet-like worm that can bring down Iran’s entire software networks if the Iranian regime gets too close to a breakout, according to U.S. intelligence sources. Google, Microsoft and Oracle had no comment on the issue.

Click to read more ...

Iran Analysis: The Plot to Kill the Saudi Ambassador --- Does This Story Make Sense?

Manssor ArbabsiarThe details of the story are developing, but this is the synopsis....

According to the American government, elements inside the Iranian regime were willing to pay Mexican drug dealers $1.5 Million (USD) to kill a Saudi official in the US, and possibly dozens of bystanders, potentially sparking a war that Tehran is ill-equipped to win, during a time of increased isolation in the world and the region for the Islamic Republic.

All the evidence that we currently have to evaluate this claim can be divided into two categories: the official US complaint against the alleged Iranian agent Manssor Arbabsiar, and common sense.

The common sense answer is that this is a preposterous story, Iran would have nothing to gain and everything to lose from this act.

The complaint says that the US Attorney General has detailed and elaborate documentation that explains allegations which, at this moment, are general and lack corroboration.

Click to read more ...

Iran Interview: Mahmoud Ahmadinejad Runs Circles Around ABC News' Stephanopoulos

Another forum in New York for President Ahmadinejad to put out his talking points --- "Show me one dictatorship in the world that has not been supported by the United States government or some European governments" --- while knocking back any thought of violations of political, civil, and legal rights after his disputed 2009 re-election: "Don’t you distinguish between those protestors who have something to say and who have some demands, and those who set buildings on fire?"

Like NBC News' Ann Curry in Tehran a week ago,  ABC News' George Stephanopoulos gets his prize in the opening exchange with the prospect of a release of the US hikers Josh Fattal and Shane Bauer --- this time, it actually came true in the following 24 hours --- and then the rest of the interview is a broadcast wasteland.

Stephanopoulos is ill-prepared to follow up on some questions, such as the repression in Iran, and unable to to catch up with an evasive Ahmadinejad on others, such as Syria. While for once, this is an interview that doesn't put a priority on the nuclear issue, Stephanopoulos cannot even get the Iranian President to respond meaningfully on the US call for military communications with Tehran to avoid an accidental conflict --- Ahmadinejad shows his interviewer up, "You mean the US is in a Cold War with Iran? Is that what you mean?"

And there is even a gift tied with a bow for Ahmadinejad with Stephanopoulos' presentation of foreign-supported "regime change": "The Defense Secretary Leon Panetta said earlier this year that it’s just a matter of time before this revolution hits Iran.  What did you make of that?"

THE INTERVIEW

STEPHANOPOULOS: Mr. President, thank you for joining us again.  I want to begin with a topic that  many Americans are interested [in], of course, the Americans, Josh Fattal and Shane Bauer.  Last week you raised a lot of hopes here in the United States saying they would be released in a couple of days as a humanitarian gesture.  Many expected them to come back here with you.  Yet they’re still imprisoned in Iran.  Why?

Click to read more ...

Iran Feature: Is Civil Disobedience Taking Off? (Tait)

Protest over Lake UrmiaWhen Leon Panetta, the new United States defense secretary, declared on September 6 that it was only "a matter of time" before an Arab Spring-style revolution came to Iran, it seemed to smack of wishful thinking. 

And since this year's outbreak of popular uprisings that have unseated dictatorships in Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya, and destabilized authoritarian regimes elsewhere in the Middle-East countries, there have been numerous expressions of desire for a "Persian Spring" to go with the Arab variety. 

Yet now opponents of the Tehran regime feel its nemesis may finally have arrived -- in the form of proliferating acts of civil disobedience.

Click to read more ...

Latest from Iran (7 September): Revolutions and Dervishes

More video claiming to show the security crackdown against protesters in Urmia on September 3rd

See also Iran Special: Mousavi's Moment Outside House Arrest "The Future is Bright"

Iran Video: Bringing Out the News, Remembering the Victims --- An Interview with Masih Alinejad
The Latest from Iran (6 September): Water Fights, Soggy Papers

---

1800 GMT: Justice Watch. Mohammad Esmail Mollazehi, charged with “spying in an attempt to act against Iranian national security”, has been sentenced to 10 years in prison.

Mollazehi was arrested in Zahedan in southeastern Iran in October 2010, charged with delivering information to a foreign embassy in Dubai." The embassy was not named.

The Zahedan prosecutor also said cryptically, “This individual also followed the files of certain detainees in Iran and was trying to release them.”

Because Mollazehi has no previous record, the 10-year sentence was reduced to four years in prison plus five years’ suspended sentence.

Click to read more ...