Remember Iran Flashback: Four Scenarios for a Vote Recount (16 June 2009)

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Ahmadinejad’s lead would almost certainly be cut, and the election would appear much more competitive, but he would still win outright. This would still ask some tough questions as to why the President’s majority was initially so huge and would probably still require some scapegoats.

This result would obviously not convince many core opposition supporters. Their reaction, however, could swing in one of two different directions.  They could feel that, even with a re-confirmed Ahmadinejad victory, this unprecedented enquiry means the establishment can be pushed further. On the other hand, they could feel that they have reached the limits of what they can achieve. Meanwhile, the political establishment could see this gesture as their final offer and then crack down hard on any further opposition.

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Remember Iran Flashback: 15 June 2009 --- The March of the Millions

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EA's Live Coverage three years ago today --- the world is taken by surprise as more than a million Iranians, joined by Presidential candidates Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, take to the streets of Tehran to challenge Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's supposed election. However, there are signs that the regime will defy the protesters and confirm Ahmadinejad's "victory", and there is ominous news of more detentions and deaths of demonstrators at the end of the evening:

2230 GMT: The end of a long and, for many, amazing day in Iran with the hopes of the mass movement balanced by rumours of deaths, beatings, and detentions (one activist writes of many people being taken to Evin Prison). Still a state of tension, with uncertainty over casualty figures from this afternoon at Azadi Square and no firm confirmation of the big march for 5 p.m. tomorrow (local time) in Tehran. Tonight, there are sounds of ambulances and police sirens and occasional gunshots.

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The Latest from Iran (15 June): Politics and Corruption

Nikahang Kowsar;s Ahmadinejad promises, "I will disclose the source of corruption," to which the Supreme Leader asks, "Will you please stop this?"

See also Israel 1st-Hand: "Imagine if Iran Were in the West Bank!"
Remember Iran Flashback: 15 June 2009 --- The March of the Millions
The Latest from Iran (14 June): Tough Talk Based on Bad Economics

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1005 GMT: Prisoner Watch. Dissident filmmaker Mohammad Reza Nourizad was arrested on Thursday and released after 12 hours in solitary confinement.

Nourizad was imprisoned for several months for letters he sent to the Supreme Leader. An activist sees the latest detention as a punishment for the filmmaker's remarks on a Voce of America broadcast.

0935 GMT: Oil Watch. The Japanese legislature's lower house has passed a bill to provide government guarantees on insurance for tankers carrying Iranian oil, mitigating the effect of European sanctions beginning 1 July.

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Remember Iran Flashback: "The Obama Administration Fails to React" (14 June 2009)

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Vice President Joe Biden, 14 June 2009: "Our interests are the same before the election as after the election"

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In contrast to the drama unfolding on the streets of Iran, the key non-event outside the country is the lack of reaction from the Obama administration. Contrary to the position taken by the Bush administration in cases from the Ukraine to Georgia and Lebanon, there will be no welcoming or encouraging of a velvet revolution in Iran. The Obama administration is, instead, preparing itself to deal with whoever emerges as president. Despite the protestations of Mir-Hossein Mousavi's supporters, this will almost certainly be the incumbent, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. While the United States would have strongly preferred to be dealing with a Mousavi administration, the basic strategic and political rationale for US-Iranian rapprochement remains unchanged.

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Remember Iran Flashback: 13 June 2009 --- EA's Live Coverage Begins

The Iranian authorities declare victory for President Ahmadinejad; candidates Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi challenge results; protests begin amid reports of detentions by security forces

2230 GMT: We're signing off until the morning. Thanks to everyone who sent us information today. To friends in Iran: our thoughts are with you.

2200 GMT: We have now posted the English translation of the letter released by Mir Hossein Mousavi to his supporters this afternoon.l

2145 GMT: In addition to the video of this afternoon's protests in Tehran, which we posted in this entry, we now have posted footage that the riots have spread this evening to the university in Shiraz and to the city of Mashhad.

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The Latest from Iran (12 June): Three Years Ago Today

See also Remember Iran: An EA Special
Remember Iran: A Day That Changed the Country, the Region, and the Media
Iran Feature: The Week in Civil Society --- From Political Prisoners in Danger to Pepsi's Logo on the Moon
Remember Iran: A Preview of the Presidential Election (11 June 2009)
Remember Iran Flashback: "How Not to Cover Iran's Elections --- The Awards Ceremony" (12 June 2009)
The Latest from Iran (11 June): A Fraud Case Reaches the Government

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Photo: AFP/Getty1940 GMT: Economy Watch. The World Bank has projected that Iran’s economy will shrink 1% this year.

“Product boycotts and financial sanctions are expected to exact a toll on growth over 2012 and 2013,” the Bank said in a report published Tuesday. It predicted a further contraction of 0.7% next year.

1900 GMT: The Oil Squeeze. In a further sign of a strategy moving Turkey away from imports of Iranian oil, Ankara has begun discussions with Saudi Arabia on long-term crude purchases.

Minister of Energy Taner Yildiz said today, "Talks with Saudi Arabia on long-term crude oil purchases have started. This doesn't concern only [Turkish refiner] Tupras but also concerns Saudi Arabia's Aramco. Talks are still going on; they will discuss the quantities between them."

On Monday, the US said it would exempt Turkey from financial sanctions because it has cut purchases of Tehran's oil. A report this week indicated that Turkish imports fell 45% between March and May.

A US diplomat indicated that Washington granted the waiver with the expectation of further cuts, "So Turkey now has 180 days, Tupras has 180 days to take a look at its oil situation to decide - can it reduce further, can it get to zero? - what it needs to do."

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Remember Iran: A Preview of the Presidential Election (11 June 2009)

Mir Hossein Mousavi with Al Jazeera English, 11 June 2009

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On my visits to Iran, and afterwards in correspondence with friends and colleagues, I have learned about and been reminded often of the "third generation", those Iranians who came of age after the Islamic Revolution and the Iran-Iraq War of the 1980s. Quite often, the third generation was characterised as detached from the Revolution, disillusioned, dissatisfied. In recent weeks, however, the third generation --- and more than a few other Iranians --- have been in rallies, on the streets (on Monday, there was the largest outside gathering in more than a decade), and, yes, even on Facebook with excitement and some expectation.

I don't know if this constitutes a "Gradual Revolution", another phrase that I have frequently heard. I certainly would not twist and misrepresent it with the politically-loaded "Velvet Revolution". But, again as an outsider, there has been an opening of debate and thus of political space which could be significant not just for this election but for years to come.

Put simply --- and anticipating Western headlines after Friday about "The Obama Effect" in Iran, about "moderates" v. "hard-liners", about reinforcement or downfall of an Axis running from Iran to Syria to Lebanon's Hezbollah to Palestine's hamas --- these events first and foremost are not about the US. They are not about a clash in the Middle East, in nuclear arsenals, between civilisations.

These events are about Iranians: their concerns, their hopes, their ideals. And, whatever the outcome tomorrow and in the second round, they should be respected as such.

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Remember Iran Flashback: "How Not to Cover Iran's Elections --- The Awards Ceremony" (12 June 2009)

From Colin Freeman in The Daily Telegraph: "The jostling crowds of a rock gig moshpit, and the carefully choreographed build-up of a World Wrestling Federation grudge match....Rather like promoters for the Rolling Stones or the late James Brown, the president's aides like to keep his fans waiting....One speaker yelled with razzmatazz worthy of TV darts presenter Sid Waddell."

My favourite allusion? "Rather like the punk rock group the Sex Pistols, or the singer Pete Doherty, it is not unusual, apparently, for the president to plan a gig but then fail to show."

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as Sid Vicious. I'm not sure it does much for political analysis, but it's an image that burns on the mind.

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The Latest from Iran (7 June): Nuclear Talks Fallout

See also Iran Letter: An Appeal for the Iranian Journalists and Activists in Turkey
The Latest from Iran (6 June): The Oil Squeeze

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2025 GMT: Book Corner. Bahman Dorri, a deputy in the Ministry of Culture, has said that the prominent publishing house Cheshmeh lost its license because it "insulted religious beliefs".

2011 GMT: Ahmadinejad Watch. While President Ahmadinejad is in Beijing trying to bolster his domestic position by displaying his international status, his critics are offering a challenge.

Following the disruption of the President's speech last weekend on the anniversary of Ayatollah Khomeini's death, Tehran Friday Prayers leader Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami, the temporary , has criticised Ahmadinejad for strengthening the sense of Iranian nationalism, rather than an Islam-first approach: "He either does not read the Qur'an or does not understand the Shahnameh [the "Book of Kings" by the poet Ferdowsi].”

Khatami added, “For 33 years, religion has run this country. Those who are in power today should be careful about what they say. Strengthening the sense of nationalism is one of [President] Obama’s priorities."

On another front, Mustafa Pourmohammadi, Iran's Inspector General, has again accused Ahmadinejad of preventing investigations into the $2.6 billion bank fraud: "The Government tried so hard to prevent the outbreak of the fraud news in the first place and then the follow-up investigations with the excuse that this case will harm the economic system.”

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The Latest from Iran (6 June): The Oil Squeeze

See also Iran Feature: The Week in Civil Society --- From #SaveMaleki to the "Shoot the Apostate" Video Games
Russia Audio Feature: Moscow's Manoeuvres With Iran --- Scott Lucas with Monocle 24
The Latest from Iran (5 June): The House Arrests

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2028 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Amir Hossein Alavi, a member of the student alumni group Advar Tahkim Vahdat and a supporter of the Freedom Movement of Iran, has been arrested after being summoned to Zanjan’s Intelligence Bureau.

1913 GMT: Devious West Watch. Sohrab Salehi, the head of the Basij Professors Organization has asserted that, by imposing sanctions, the West wants to present the Supreme Leader as the main cause of inflation in Iran.

Look for more of this in the near-future from higher-level officials. If the nuclear talks collapse --- which I think is probable, given today's signals --- and when the European Union's cut-off of imports of Iranian oil takes effect from 1 July, the Islamic Republic's officials will need someone to break for the escalating economic tensions in Iran. Since that "someone" cannot be Ayatollah Khamenei, the "West" will have the lead role of villain.

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