The Latest from Iran (11 May): The Battle Within

"Naqi", the song that led to an Ayatollah's call for the death of rapper Shahin Najafi (see 0620 and 1200 GMT)

See also Iran Snap Analysis: Isolating Ahmadinejad
The Latest from Iran (10 May): Supreme Leader Comments on Detained Mousavi and Karroubi

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2035 GMT: At the Book Fair. The next level of censorship at the 25th Tehran International Book Fair....

After at least 11 publishers were banned from the exhibition, another six booths have been shut down for inappropriate displays. Two reportedly had posters of Nashr Cheshmeh, one of the banned publishers. Another had a posted of the famous Persian king Cyrus.

1720 GMT: Ahmadinejad Watch. Nothing distinctive in the President's speech during his promotional tour in northeastern Iran (see 1400 GMT)....

Speaking in Rashtkhvar, Ahmadinejad says the West should drop its “bullying” stance: “If the Iranian nation makes up its mind to do something, all devils and ill-wishers of the world cannot make them backtrack on their resolve."

The President continued that worship of the Devil, wealth, power, or worldly whims instead of God was the root cause of all human problems: “If the world powers worship the Almighty God, they will not make stockpiles of nuclear and chemical arsenals and will not try to occupy other territories.

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Iran Snap Analysis: Isolating Ahmadinejad

Even the rumour smacked of disinformation and/or the desparation of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's camp. Tehran Emrooz --- linked to the President's conservative rival, Tehran Mayor Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf --- was claiming that Ahmadinejad would seek to become Mayor, a post he held from 2003 to 2005, when his Presidential term ended in 2013. The post would allow Ahmadinejad to hold a portion of the power that he craves, while he and his allies tried to put a "close friend" into the Presidency.

Probably a story which is more smoke than substance, but that smoke is still significant. So was Ahmadinejad's supposed defiance on Thursday as he vigorously defended the second phase of his subsidy cuts plans, still to be implemented five months after officials said it was imminent, and declared that his critics were covering up their failures as they slandered him.

That defiance tipped off weakness, rather than strength. The President is a fighter, of course, but here he was fighting to save the centrepiece of his economic table, rocking amidst both political fighting and the inflation surrounding the first stage of the subsidy cuts.

Equally significant is that Ahmadinejad, as he is battling in this area, is saying little or nothing on another. Instrumental in the effort to get nuclear talks in 2009 and to keep the prospect alive in 2010-2011, the President is silent in 2012. Given his nature, I doubt that is Ahmadinejad's choice --- he has been cut out of the nuclear issue.

Some will say that Ahmadinejad is "safe" because of the damaging information that he holds --- and has threatened to reveal --- on other members of the Islamic Republic's elite. That could well be true. It looks, for example, as that option of "I'll Take You Down with Me" has saved his advisors such as Saeed Mortazavi and Mohammad Sharif Malekzadeh from prosecution.

But "safe" is not the same as dominant or even influential. The President is being squeezed on a daily basis. Next year, he could be yesterday's man. The more interesting question, however, is whether he already is.

The Latest from Iran (10 May): Supreme Leader Comments on Detained Mousavi and Karroubi

2020 GMT: Sanctions Watch. For weeks, we have questioned public proclamation of India defying sanctions and increasing oil shipments from Iran, arguing that private discussions were weaning Delhi off Tehran's crude with assurances of alternative supplies.

Confirmation comes today in the report that India's oil imports from Tehran fell about 34% in April compared with March.

Reflecting the Government-to-Government talks between Washington and Delhi, including a visit by US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton this week, State-run buyers are at the forefront of reductions, leaving privately-owned Essar the biggest Indian client of Iran.

India's total oil imports from Iran in April fell to about 269,000 barrels per day (bpd) from 409,000 bpd in March and from about 449,000 bpd in April 2011.

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Iran Feature: The Battle to Become Speaker of Parliament

Larijani (left) and Haddad Adel (right)The political outcome of the Parliamentary elections may be a "mish-mash", with the Supreme Leader as the likely victor in his ability to control the legislature as well as the President, but the first battle of the new Majlis is shaping up --- and it's not directly about Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

Current Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, despite his allegiance to Ayatollah Khamenei, faces a serious challenge for his position. Unsurprisingly, his challenges to the Government have aroused the animosity of Ahmadinejad supporters, and he now has to contend with the alternative of Gholam Ali Haddad Adel --- former Speaker of Parliament, officially the top vote-getter in Tehran's Parliamentary ballot, and a member of the Supreme Leader's inner circle (his daughter is married to Khamenei's son Mojtaba).

An Iranian correspondent for EA surveys the situation....

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The Latest from Iran (7 May): The Muddle of the New Parliament

See also Iran Caption Competition: The Supreme Leader Looks at a Book
The Latest from Iran (6 May): After the Election

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1935 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Senior reformist Mostafa Tajzadeh, serving a six-year prison sentence, has responded to new Revolutionary Guards charges against him. The former Deputy Minister of Interior said, "I will not appear in court before my complaint against [Ayatollah] Jannati is accepted."

Tajazadeh has accused Jannati, the head of the Guardian Council, of involvement in the manipulation of the 2009 Presidential election.

1915 GMT: The Battle Within. Only 72 hours after the conclusion of the Parliamentary elections, the Government's critics have resumed their attack. MP Ali Motahari --- his own position secured after victory in the Tehran ballot --- has said that the attempt to impeach Minister of Labor Abdolreza Sheikholeslami could resume on Tuesday.

Sheikholeslami is under fire because of his defence of controversial Presidential aide Saeed Mortazavi.

Meanwhile, Rah-e Sabz reports that, in an effort to retain Mortazavi, the Government has paid off a 35 billion Toman (about $28.5 million) debt to the Social Security Fund.

Mortazavi, criticised for his role as Tehran Prosecutor General during the abuses and killings in the Kahrizak detention centre in summer 2009, was named head of the Fund earlier this year.

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Iran Snap Analysis: Some People Were Selected for the Parliament --- Does It Matter?

There is an important conclusion to be drawn from Friday's outcome, but it is only a reiteration of what we noted after the first round two months ago, not in the overwhelming victory of a faction, but in the lack of one: "While the Islamic Republic's system is far too complex to reduce it to the plaything of the Supreme Leader, "stability" --- if not legitimacy --- lay in an arrangement in which he and his circle could be assured that they would not face trouble from a President, Parliament, or judiciary."

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The Latest from Iran (5 May): The Threat of Inflation

See also Iran Special: Photoshop Propaganda With Lots of Missiles (and Jar Jar Binks!)
The Latest from Iran (4 May): Election Day Again

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2045 GMT: The Revolutionary Guards Intervene. Forget the election --- this may be the most significant news of the day....

General Mohammad Ali Jafari, the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, has criticised the Government for not being able to meet the Supreme leader's expectations, saying, "We are hoping to take effective steps toward this goal."

Addressing students at Imam Hussain University, which is overseen by the Guards, he declared, "Whether we want it or not, we have become a model in the world and the people of countries which are facing reforms and changes are looking at us to give them examples to follow."

2035 GMT: Economy Watch. Economist Hussain Raghfar has said that Iranians cannot believe official statistics, having lost trust in Government and the Central Bank. Instead, they "search within their families and friends to find the true inflation and unemployment rate. They look at the number of young people in their families who are working and the everyday prices of necessary goods such as food and vegetables."

Raghfar blamed Government policies for economic problems, "For the past 24 month there have been no policies on controlling inflation." He predicted that, if the second phase of subsidy cuts is implemented, the inflation rate will surge past 100%.

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The Latest from Iran (4 May): Election Day Again

The Supreme Leader casting his vote today

See also The Latest from Iran (3 May): The Oil Squeeze

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1930 GMT: Elections Watch. There are no clear numbers from today's second Parliamentary elections, but Iranian media are already putting out the message of "impressive turnout".

Mehr emphasises the diversity of those voting, including "Expediency Council Chairman Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani; Hassan Khomeini, the grandson of the late Imam Khomeini; pro-reform figure Mohammad Mousavi Khoeiniha, who is the secretary general of the Association of Combatant Clerics; and National Confidence Party deputy chief Rasul Montajabnia, who is also a key member of the Association of Combatant Clerics".

And Tehran University academic Seyed Mohammad Marandi offers the inevitable proclamation that the show of domestic support for the regime will bolster it in forthcoming talks over Iran's nuclear programme.

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The Latest from Iran (2 May): Books and Politics

Banned: Cheshmeh Publishing House1910 GMT: Media Watch. Reza Moghadassi, the managing editor of the conservative site Mehr, has criticised the Government's media law for "restricting the free flow of information more and more each day".

Moghadessia claimed that the Government's decree would allow the Ministry of Communications to filter a website immediately after a ban was issued by the Media Supervisory Council.

1850 GMT: Gasoline and Price Rises Don't Mix. Earlier today (see 0930 GMT) we reported that the price of subsidised gasoline is set to quadruple from 100 Toman (just over $0.08 at official rate) to 400 Toman ($0.33).

Now ISNA reports that people are rushing gas stations in Tehran to buy the 100 Toman fuel while they can. There has been a 600% increase in consumption in the past two days, with police at some stations to control crowds.

1840 GMT: Parliament v. President. Speaking at a meeting of the Unity Front faction, leading MP Gholam Reza Mesbahi Moghaddam has described three Parliamentary moves against the Government to stop price rises.

However, it appears that the Guardian Council may have raised the stakes on another front. Spokesman Abbas Ali Kadkhodaei said the Council has rejected a Parliamentary measure to spur impeachment of the President if he fails to answer more than six questions satisfactorily.

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Iran Interview: What Happened on Election Day in 2009? (Mehrabi)

At the commission, the news went around by word of mouth. One news was that Mir Hossein Mousavi was planning to come to the commission. But no real news came into the headquarters.

Even prior to the voting, the Ministry [of Interior] appeared to be poised to win the election. We sensed that they seemed confident that they (the Ahmadinejad campaign) would win in any way. When we told the other reformist kids, who called us from the outside, of the atmosphere inside the building, they brushed us off as being influenced by the events inside.

We had no idea that they planned to rig the elections at this scale. When we spoke with reporters from the other side (i.e., supporting the administration), they told us that Ahmadinejad would win with 24 million votes.

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