The Latest from Iran (13 April): Before the Nuclear Show

President Ahmadinejad greeting an unseen crowd in Hormozgan Province in southern Iran

---

1644 GMT: Your Tehran Friday Prayer Update. Ayatollah Mohammad Emami Kashani has the podium today, and he is in a nuclear mood: “As the [Leader of the Islamic Revolution] Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei has said and other Iranian officials have reiterated, the work done in the field of nuclear energy [in Iran] is not meant for making nuclear weapons."

Just to make sure the US, European powers, China, and Russia got the message before tomorrow's talks, Emami Kashani emphasised, “These activities are for scientific purposes; you must realize and believe this."

However, while the West ponders this reassurance, this passage from Emami Kashani is more interesting to me --- cheerleading for the Supreme Leader's "Year of National Production", worry about the economy, or both?:

Everyone must enjoy their lives. There should be jobs in society, [and] the youth should be able to marry and have good living and housing conditions; therefore, production is important....Honest investors must invest in order to serve the country and benefit from its profits. Jobs must be promoted qualitatively and quantitatively and everyone at any level should [be able to] lead a clean life.

Click to read more ...

The Latest from Iran (12 April): Strike a Diplomatic Pose

See also Iran Feature: Maya Neyestani --- Challenging Repression Through The Cartoon
The Latest from Iran (11 April): Targeting Ahmadinejad

---

2040 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Activist Kouhyar Goudarzi, of the Committee of Human Rights Reporters, has been released after 8 1/2 months in detention.

1930 GMT: Reformist Watch. An interesting push by MP Mohammad Reza Khabbaz after the debate among reformists whether to boycott March's Parliamentary system....

Even through the reformists have been reduced to a token group of about a dozen in the Majlis --- and even though reformist parties have been suspended or broken up by the regime --- Khabbaz wants a new effort to work within the system. He has said that they can regroup to engage in political activities for the 2013 Presidential election if former President Mohammad Khatami leads the campaign.

Khabbaz said that Khatami's decision to cast a ballot --- a move criticised by many reformists and activists --- had paved the way for his return to the country’s political stage.

Click to read more ...

Iran Special: How the Myth of the Green Movement and "Regime Change" Was Created

Protesters in Tehran's Azadi Square, 15 June 2009

---

Three weeks ago, the Iranian site Khabar Online published an extended interview with Alireza Marandi --- the physician who returned from the US to become the Islamic Republic's first Minister of Health, a minister under Prime Minister Mir Hossein Mousavi in the 1980s, and now a prominent MP from Tehran. While his name may not be well-known in the "West", Marandi's record and his "straight shooter" reputation make him a bastion of the establishment --- so when he speaks, the words carry weight.

The discussion is an extended denunciation of Mousavi, both in the 1980s and during the 2009 Presidential election. In that sense, with the former Presidential candidate now entering his 15th month of strict house arrest, it is far from surprising.

But amidst the damning of the Green Movement's figurehead, one passage deserves a feature. For Marandi's explanation of why Mousavi turned in 2009 from candidate to the would-be mastermind of "regime change" reveals how the myth was spread that Iran's protesters were merely the puppets of the "West" and the "seditious elements" within the Islamic Republic.

Click to read more ...

The Latest from Iran (11 April): Targeting Ahmadinejad

See also Iran Special: How the Myth of the Green Movement and "Regime Change" Was Created
Iran Snap Analysis: Speaker of Parliament Larijani Uses Syria for a Power Play
The Latest from Iran (10 April): Talks in Istanbul, Challenges to Ahmadinejad at Home

---

1925 GMT: Human Rights Watch. According to MP Fatemeh Alia, Parliament has approved a bill to spend 20 billion Toman (about $16.5 million at official rate; about $10.5 million at open market rate) to supervise human rights violations in the US and Britain.

1835 GMT: Posture Watch. In the category of Statements With Very Little Significance....

Saeed Jalili, Iran's lead negotiator in the nuclear talks that begin Saturday in Istanbul, has said:

Iran's representatives will participate in the negotiations with new initiatives and we hope that the P5+1 countries (US, UK, Germany, France, China, Russia) will also enter talks with constructive approaches. The language of threat and pressure against the Iranian nation has never yielded results but will lead to more seriousness in the attitude of the Iranian nation. We are ready to hold progressive and successful talks on cooperation.

Jalili gave no details of the "new initiatives".

Continuing his provincial tour in southern Iran, President Ahmadinejad declared, “Hereby, on behalf of the Iranian people, I tell them (Western nations), the approach you have adopted will fail, and you must correct your literature in addressing the Iranian nation and must speak respectfully."

Ahmadinejad gave no further details about relationship between the Western "bullying", "literature", and the nuclear talks.

Click to read more ...

Iran Snap Analysis: Speaker of Parliament Larijani Uses Syria for a Power Play

Put bluntly, it is not the Presidential rule of Bashar al-Assad that is in question here. It is that of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, and Syria just happens to be a very big pawn in the effort to put him in check.

Click to read more ...

The Latest from Iran (10 April): Talks in Istanbul, Challenges to Ahmadinejad at Home

A young woman holds up a sign of protest during a visit by President Ahmadinejad to Bandar Abbas, "We, the Youth, are Unemployed"

See also Iran Analysis: A 4-Point Beginner's Guide to the Nuclear Talks
The Latest from Iran (9 April): No Agreement to Nuclear Talks in Turkey...Yet

---

2020 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Blogger Davood Bahmanabadi has been released on bail after 140 days in Evin Prison.

2000 GMT: Parliament v. President. Back to our opening story of the day (see 0605 GMT) and the Parliamentary pressure on Mahmoud Ahmadinejad....

Fifteen MPs have asked Speaker of Parliament Larijani to summon the President to the Majlis to report on "problems" in the first phase of subsidy cuts, launched in December 2010, and plans for the second phase. Ahmadinejad will also be queried about support for production in the private production sector, and inflation.

Click to read more ...

Iran Analysis: A 4-Point Beginner's Guide to the Nuclear Talks

After days of last-minute fencing --- reflecting both the tensions of diplomacy and the tensions within the Iranian political system --- Tehran finally agreed on Monday to the start of nuclear discussions in Istanbul. Iran's representatives will sit down with those of the 5+1 Powers (US, UK, France, Russia, China, and Germany) on Saturday to consider the future of Tehran's uranium enrichment.

The theatrical dispute over location, which started when Iran pulled back last week from Turkey as the host of the talks, ended with the declaration that Istanbul's opening meeting would be followed by another round of discussions in Baghdad.

At one level, that's a face-saving arrangement. The Islamic Republic had boxed itself in with its posture that Turkey --- which has been a diplomatic partner of Tehran, which had been vital in working with Iran for a possible agreement in 2010, but which had angered some in the regime with its position on the Syrian crisis --- was no longer acceptable as the venue. The Iranians (and by this, I primarily mean the Supreme Leader) either had to take this pose all the way to the collapse of discussions even before they started, or accept that it was the Istanbul way or no way for the negotiations.

At another level, however, the Baghdad add-on is a tip-off from the Islamic Republic to the US and European powers not to expect an immediate meeting of minds in Turkey. If there is to be an agreement, it will have to come through lengthy talks producing compromise, rather than an Iranian concession to sanctions and other pressure, and an arrangement not only respecting but highlighting the Islamic Republic's sovereignty. A meeting in Iraq is symbolic of that desire --- the Iranians know that Washington is suspicious of Baghdad's political leanings towards Tehran, so the US would have to make a concession in entering that diplomatic territory.

At the same time, the setting-out of not just one but two sets of talks --- albeit with those in Baghdad on an unspecified date, only to be confirmed at the end of Istanbul --- raises the question as to whether either side will put a substantial offer on the table this week or whether each will fence for position, trying to get the other to tip off their negotiating hand and even give way on it.

Click to read more ...

Iran Special: Spreading (and Understanding) Nuclear Confusion in Tehran

UPDATE 1000 GMT: State news agency IRNA announces that the Islamic Republic and the 5+1 Powers (US, UK, France, Germany, Russia, and China) have agreed to the opening round of nuclear talks in Istanbul on Saturday, followed by a second round of talks in Baghdad.

IRNA says the compromise between the US-European choice of Istanbul and Iran's preference for Iraq was agreed between Saeed Jalili, the Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, and the European Union's foreign policy representative Catherine Ashton. It claims the Supreme National Security Council confirmed the arrangement in a meeting this morning.

According to IRNA, the date of the Baghdad talks will be announced at the end of the Istanbul discussions.

Meanwhile, another example of mixed messages....

Click to read more ...

The Latest from Iran (7 April): Nuclear Confusion

1435 GMT: The Battle Within. Mehr reports that President Ahmadinejad has again refused to attend a meeting of the Expediency Council, chaired by his political rival Hashemi Rafsanjani.

1400 GMT: All-is-Well Alert. Iranian officials assert that Tehran's non-oil exports rose 29% to nearly $44 billion in the year to mid-March, with a further $4.2 billion for technological services.

Almost all of the increase came from petrochemical products and gas condensates, according to the customs offices. The two products have risen in value because of higher oil oil prices.

The export of petrochemicals rose 55% to $15 billion, and that of gas condensates by 36 percent to $10 billion.

China, the United Arab Emirates --- which is the hub for the re-export of goods to Iran --- Iraq, and India were the main customers for non-oil goods.

Click to read more ...

Iran Feature: The Disappearing Interview with a US Official (Esfandiari)

The Controversial Alef ArticleSince Tuesday, we have paid close attention to the curious episode of a conservative Iranian newspaper/website, linked to leading MP Ahmad Tavakoli, announcing and then withdrawing the announcement of an interview with the State Department's Persian-language spokesperson Alan Eyre.

Golnaz Esfandiari, writing for Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, summarises the developments, which came amidst confusion over Iran's forthcoming nuclear talks with the US and other powers....

Click to read more ...