The Latest from Iran (12 January): After the Tehran Bomb

2119 GMT: The Tehran Bomb. Fars reports that the Ministry of Interior refused permits for "student" protests, condemning the death of scientist Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan, in front of the British, German, and French Embassies today.

2049 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Anti-regime bloggers have launched a website in support of Mehdi Khazali, the physician and blogger detained once again this week.

Khazali has been seized three times since the 2009 Presidential election.

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The Latest from Iran (11 January): A Car Bomb in Tehran

State media Press TV's coverage of the bombing this morning in Tehran, killing Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan, deputy head of procurement at the Natanz uranium enrichment facility (video via The Guardian)

See also Iran Feature: The Regime Isolates the Rafsanjani Family
Iran 1st-Hand: How the Currency Crisis Began
Ahmadinejad's Men Strike 1st Blow in the Elections
The Latest from Iran (10 January): "A Big Atomic Bomb Will Come Out"

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2108 GMT: The Tehran Bomb. According to Mehr, today's victim in the Tehran bombing, Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan --- scientist and deputy head of procurement at the Natanz uranium enrichment facility --- had met officials from the International Atomic Energy Agency, who are in Iran reviewing the nuclear operations.

Roshan's driver, wounded in the attack, later died from his injuries.

2058 GMT: Elections Watch. Rasa News reports that Soulat Mortazavi, the head of Iran's Election Commission has asked clerics in Qom to tell people that there is no fraud in the elections and that high turnout is important.

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Iran Feature: The Regime Isolates the Rafsanjani Family (Alem)

Faezeh HashemiLast week women's rights activist Faezeh Hashemi, the daughter of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, was sentenced to six months in prison and a five-year ban on political, cultural, and media activities on charges of "spreading propaganda against the ruling system". The next day, the passports of the family of Mehdi Hashemi, Rafsanjani's son, were seized at Imam Khomeini International Airport outside Tehran.

Analyst Yasmin Alem speaks to The Iran Primer of the US Institute of Peace about the apparent campaign against the Rafsanjani family:

Why was Faezeh Rafsanjani charged?

Hashemi is the most politically active of former President Rafsanjani's children. She is a prominent social activist and leading Islamic feminist. A supporter of presidential candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi in the 2009, she participated in a number of opposition rallies after the disputed poll. Ms. Rafsanjani was arrested and briefly detained by security forces on two occasions and barred from travelling abroad.

But her conviction on 2 January 2012 stems from an interview with Rooz Online, an opposition online newspaper. The interview was conducted after she was harassed by plainclothes security agents in April 2011. She told the opposition news website that “thugs and hooligans” were running the country.

She was subsequently accused and convicted of “insulting Islamic Republic officials". She was sentenced to six months in jail and banned from membership in any political organization as well as taking part in online and media activities for the next five years. Hashemi is likely to file an appeal. While she may be able to get her jail sentence overturned, the ban on her political activities is unlikely to be lifted.

Her sentence reflects the longstanding rivalry between two of the Islamic Republic’s founding fathers: former President Rafsanjani and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The two men have jockeyed for the upper hand—and the country’s political direction—since the death of revolutionary leader Ayatollah Khomeini in 1989. Hashemi’s conviction is another way for the supreme leader to pressure his political rival at a time when Rafsanjani is already at the nadir of his power.

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Iran Snap Analysis: Ahmadinejad's Men Strike 1st Blow in the Elections

0545 GMT: This will be a long, complex election process up to March's formal ballot for Parliamentary seats, but it looks like Ahmadinejad supporters can claim a victory in the first skirmish.

On Tuesday, news emerged of the first decisions on who would and would not be allowed to stand among the almost 5400 applicants. The regime spin is that more than 80% made it past the scrutiny of officials of the Ministry of Interior, but the significant story lay in the banning of at least 32 of Iran's 290 MPs.

The banned legislators are from across the political spectrum, but at least nine of them are united in their high-profile criticism of the Ahmadinejad Government. Examples include Ali Motahari, who has led the drive to question and possibly impeach the President; Hamidreza Katouzian, the head of the Energy Committee who has challenged the Government over the economy as well as the energy sector; and Dariush Ghanbari, a leading reformist voice.

Ghanbari's exclusion also raises an interesting dimension in the battle. The blocking of other reformists occurred even though the Supreme Leader's offices, as well as other factions within the establishment, have pressed hard for their participation, both through running for election and through voting on 2 March.

That can lead, I think, to only one conclusion. Those who put the black mark on the high-profile candidates were doing so in support of the President and, to some extent, in defiance of the wishes of the Supreme Leader's advisors.

The decision is far from final. The Guardian Council, the highest-level supervisor of the electoral process, will review all the applicants --- it can re-instate those who have been blocked, and it can ban others. Presuming that the Council is more in line with the wishes of Ayatollah Khamenei, and is not so amenable to Ahmadinejad's inner circle, MPs like Motahari and Ghanbari are likely to be approved.

But that is for later. For now, some people within the Iranian system have tried to make clear that the President is no lame duck and the Supreme Leader does not always get his way.

The Latest from Iran (10 January): "A Big Atomic Bomb Will Come Out"

1945 GMT: Elections Watch. Radio Zamaneh offers an overview of the MPs who have been blocked from running in Parliamentary elections in March. It notes that nine of them --- Ali Motahari, Hamidreza Katouzian, Alireza Mahjoub, Ali Abbaspour Tehrani, Fatemeh Ajorloo, Abbasali Noura, Peymon Forouzesh, Ghodratollah Alikhani and Dariush Ghanbari --- "have all been involved in strong criticism of the administration over the past year".

The Deputy Speaker of Parliament, Mohammadreza Bahonar, said disqualifying government critics among the Principlists from running for office is “narrow-minded". However, Tehran Governor Morteza Tamaddon insisted that the disqualifications were carried out according to the law and in the “interests of the sacred Islamic Republic system".

The nominees have four days to appeal the decision, with the final decision to be made by the Guardian Council.

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The Latest from Iran (9 January): A Sideshow in Latin America

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2115 GMT: You Can Never Start 'Em Too Young. Shargh claims that the the authorities are launching "Chastity and Hijab" programmes in kindergartens.

2107 GMT: A Message for the Supreme Leader? Former Revolutionary Guards commander Hossein Alaei has spoken about the uprising of 9 January 1978 in Qom, suggesting that others should learn from the Shah's experience.

After the uprising, the Shah's security forces put political opponents under house arrest and shot dissenters, but of course this ultimately failed preserve the monarch's throne.

So who are the "others" whom Alaei thinks should learn from the historical example?

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The Latest from Iran (8 January): Mr Chavez, Can You Spare a Dime?

See also Iran Photo Special: Snapshots of Life and Living
The Latest from Iran (7 January): "We are in an Economic War"

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2140 GMT: Elections All-Is-Well Alert. Press TV goes over the top in its cheerleading, "Iran Political Groups Debate Parliament Vote": "A number of reformist lawmakers said it's business as usual and everyone is taking part because there are assurances that like the previous rounds the next elections will be free, fair and transparent."

An excess from nerves? Possibly, because in the next paragraph the website undermines its confident assurance, "Principalist political organizations and politicians are also preparing themselves for the elections. They express concern over the consequences of absence of reform oriented forces."

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The Latest from Iran (7 January): "We are in an Economic War"

See also Iran Appeal: Rejecting the "Islamic Penal Bill" Against Human Rights
Iran Audio Feature: Scott Lucas on Iran, Europe, and the Oil Sanctions
The Latest from Iran (6 January): Squeezing the Regime

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1830 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Kurdish blogger and human rights activist Rojin Mohemedi was released from Evin Prison on Monday.

Mohemedi, who studies at Manila Medical School in the Philippines was arrested at an airport in Tehran and imprisoned on 23 November, accused of incitement of propaganda against the regime.

1730 GMT: Currency Watch. A senior Central Bank of Iran official has denied the rumour (see 1558 GMT) that Bank head Mahmoud Bahmani has resigned amidst the currency crisis and other economic problems.

"Mr Bahmani will remain firmly in his job and whoever has published this false report has made a mistake," Deputy Governor Ebrahim Darvishi said.

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The Latest from Iran (6 January): Squeezing the Regime

Supreme Leader: "We will break the neck of boycotters" / Journalist: "Take care of your own neck, Haji" (Cartoon: Nikahang Kowsar)

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2100 GMT: Elections Watch. Gholam-Hossein Haddad-Adel, former Speaker of Parliament and a member of the Supreme Leader's inner circle, has made conciliatory noises about rivals in the Islamic Constancy Front, led by Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi. Haddad-Adel, linked to the Unity Front preparing for the Parliamentary elections in March, said, "We do not disagree with our friends in the Constancy Front. There may be difference in preferences but we are united on principles."

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Iran Feature: Is Ahmadinejad's Government Fuelling the Currency Crisis?

Our analysis at EA is that the currency crisis in Iran is driven by structural problems, mismanagement, mis-timed subsidy cuts and interest rate policies, and inflationary pressures. We do not see a plan by the Ahmadinejad Government, let alone a conspiracy, for the sudden fall of the Iranian rial.

That is not to say, however, that elements within the regime will give up a profit from the events. Those speculating against the rial --- has allegedly included officials in the Revolutionary Guards, in the Ahmadinejad camp, and in other areas of the Government --- have made a handsome sum by exploiting the gap between the "official" and "open-market" rates. And if economic crisis offers political advantage, should that be passed up?

"A Correspondent" for Tehran Bureau, while paying lip service to "fundamental structural problems" such as an excess of cash in the Iranian system, goes much farther. He/she sees a plot by the President and his inner circle to solve an immediate budgetary issue --- even if there are higher costs down the road --- while seeking a winning position in March's Parliamentary elections.

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