"Politics make for strange bedfellows", I believe they say, and --- if only until President Ahmadinejad's entourage is evicted --- it appears the Supreme Leader is looking for a sleep-over with the reformists, even those who used to be part of the "sedition current".
See also Iran Snap Analysis: The Currency Falls --- What Does It Mean?
The Latest from Iran (20 December): The Strains Within
1705 GMT: Oil Watch. A bit of good news for Tehran amidst the economic pressure on the regime, including the possibility of a European Union ban on supplies of oil from Iran....
Turkey's biggest crude oil importer Tupras has renewed its annual deal to buy crude oil from Iran for 2012, at almost the same volumes as this year, according to industry sources.
China's top refiner Sinopec Corp said that buy less than half the crude it normally imports from Iran in January.
1655 GMT: Najmeh Bozorgmehr of The Financial Times offers valuable interpretation of the currency crisis:
But there are also domestic dynamics at play. While the market remains anxious about the possibility of a European Union oil embargo and the US imposing sanctions on the central bank, local media have accused the government of Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad, president, of engineering a deliberate devaluation to boost the rial value of its oil income in the final months of the fiscal year to March. Economists and parliamentarians have predicted this year’s budget deficit could be as high as $30bn, or 7 per cent of the country’s GDP. The government is due to present its budget bill to parliament soon and some analysts believe the government is allowing the rial to weaken to reset the official exchange rate to the dollar in the budget, which has traditionally sat around the 10,000 mark. But Iran’s minister of economy and finance, Shamsoddin Hosseini, on Wednesday denied any such intention. “The government has had no, [absolutely] no deliberate plan to strengthen the dollar rate,” he said, and promised to announce “a plan to manage the market” soon.The managed float mechanism has collapsed for much of this year. The central bank’s adoption of a multiple-rate system has also failed to bring back stability to the market and to foil the impact of international sanctions aimed at Tehran’s nuclear programme. Sanctions have caused the cost of financial transactions to increase, by forcing them to go through numerous back channels, and have hit foreign currency markets by reducing the supply of cash.
If those at the highest levels of the establishment are feeling the pressure, then it might be assumed that those lower down --- with less power and fewer resources, facing subsidy cuts, rising prices, and a high rate of unemployment --- may be feeling it even more. Their eroding coincidence would feed the cycle of economic distress.
All the posturing statements of the President --- on Tuesday, he declared that many countries had asked Tehran for economic advice --- and the attempts of State news agency IRNA to hide the news cannot offer a cure. Instead, the Islamic Republic will move to another question: what will be the political effect of the falling currency and confidence? Passive acceptance by the public or a sign of public anger? And if the latter, in what form and directed at whom?
See also Iran Special: The Battle Within --- Ahmadinejad v. Rafsanjani in 5 Scenes
The Latest from Iran (19 December): And Now A Spy Story....
2045 GMT: Currency Watch. Thomas Erdbrink of The Washington Post summarises the dramatic developments over Iran's currency and Tehran's trade with the United Arab Emirates, and links the two events:
Iranian officials including the ambassador to the [UAE], Mohammad Reza Fayyaz, initially confirmed Tuesday that Iran had cut trade ties with its third-largest trading partner, the semiofficial Mehr News Agency reported. The Iranian Econews agency also quoted Mehdi Ghazanfari, the minister of industries and business, as saying that trade with the United Arab Emirates was halted because of its “anti-Iranian positions".
Following the statements, the rial fell to unprecedented lows against the dollar Tuesday, amounting to a 15 percent loss in value over the past three days, the Fars News Agency reported.
“There is sheer panic in the market,” one steel trader said. “The price of the dollar is increasing by the hour.”
Iran’s currency also dropped sharply in October 2010 after the United Arab Emirates implemented sanctions against Iran.
After Tuesday’s plunge, First Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi denied that Iranian-U.A.E. trade relations were cut. He said the emirates had simply been “warned” not to go along with sanctions proposed by the United States, Fars News Agency reported.While the linkage is a bit too simple --- the Iranian currency has been falling for weeks, with an accelerated decline in the last few days before the trade announcement --- Erdbrink usefully describes the confusion and even chaos within Iran's establishment:
Adding to the confusion, the Iran-U.A.E. Chamber of Commerce said it had received a letter from the Central Bank of Iran banning all trade in dirhams, the U.A.E. currency, starting Tuesday.
Massoud Daneshmand, chairman of the joint chamber, pleaded for calm, Mehr reported. “The U.A.E. trades with Iran for at least $25 billion,” the agency quoted him as saying. “Any decision about this country should be thoroughly thought through.”
A trusted EA source gives us the latest from Tehran, through a series of events this past week:
SCENE 1: Hassan Rohani, an ally of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, hosts a meeting of the Strategic Research Center of the Expediency Council. The topic is the Arab Spring, specifically the role of the Iran-led Islamic Awakening in the movements across North Africa and the Middle East.
All proceeds accordingly to plan until question-and-answer when Faezeh Hashemi, the daughter of Rafsanjani, makes a statement. Hashemi, a women's right activist who has been detained on at least two occasions and still faces charges, declares --- to audible gasps from the audience --- that the Arab Spring has not been influenced by the Iranian regime but by the Green Movement. She continues with a challenge to the Republic's officials, to the Government, and even to the Supreme Leader.
2050 GMT: Spy Watch. State television has displayed an American-Iranian, Amir Mirzaei Hekmati, accused of being spies for the US.
Hekmati said that he had served with US military intelligence in Afghanistan and Iraq, working with the Army's "Advanced Research and Information Center", which "took money from the CIA to certain movies and games designed to change public opinion in the Middle East".
Hekmati "confessed", "[The] plan [of US intelligence] was to initially burn some valuable information, to give it free so that (Iran's) Intelligence Ministry would see the good things and then would contact me."
Iranian State TV showed a card with writing in English identifying the bearer as an "army contractor" and several photos claimed to be of Hekmati. In some, he was in military uniform with US army officers.
Iran Feature: The Economy --- The State of the Nation
Iran Feature: The Economy --- Assessing The Real Rate of Unemployment
Iran Feature: The Supreme Leader Is Worried --- Three Developments You Probably Don't Know
Iran Feature: The EA Story That Made It Big in Iranian Media
The Latest from Iran (14 December): Tehran Loses Another Friend?
Iran Minister of Intelligence Heydar Moslehi & Saudi Crown Prince Nayef1541 GMT: Economy Watch. A member of Iran's Development Commission has a solution for economic difficulties: rely on the investments of Iranians living abroad.
1531 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Yaghoub Maleki, a member of Mir Hossein Mousavi's campaign staff, has been sentenced to 10 years in prison.
1321 GMT: All-is-Well Alert. Mohammad Reza Naqdi, the head of the Basij militia, has claimed that more than 20,000 people, given the proper "guidance", have repented for the errors of their protests after the 2009 Presidential election.
See also Iran Feature: The Supreme Leader Is Worried --- Three Developments You Probably Don't Know
Iran Feature: The EA Story That Made It Big in Iranian Media
The Latest from Iran (13 December): Shoes Are Thrown at the President
1855 GMT: Elections Watch. Ali Mohammad Gharibani, the head of the Coordination Council of the Reformist Front, has said that, that in the “absence of any possibility for the reformists to inform and campaign,” the reformists will not present a list of candidates or endorse any candidates in March's Parliamentary elections.
The council's announcement asserted, "After months of anticipation and struggle to open the political arena to fair elections and to provide a transparent election process, the situation is in effect becoming more and more restrictive.”
In addition to the standard vetting of candidates by the Guardian Council, the regime has suspended and suppressed major reformist groups such as the Islamic Iran Participation Front, the Mojahedin of the Islamic Revolution, and Etemade Melli.
Followers of our daily coverage of Iran will be aware of the political tensions that have gripped the Islamic Republic's establishment. Those battles, from charges of corruption to warning of a "deviant current" affecting the Government, will only grow in intensity before next March's Parliamentary elections.
Yet EA sources have given us a story that goes even farther. The core of the tale is the belief amongst many observers in Iran that, despite all the attacks upon it, the President's camp will be the winner in the elections. Whether or not that assessment is correct, the Supreme Leader's advisors are concerned.
In recent weeks, those advisors have taken several steps. Among those measures are the pursuit of a new political ally --- at least in the short-term --- to check an Ahmadinejad success at the polls in March, Ayatollah Khamenei's people are seeking out reformists to call for their participation in the elections.
2140 GMT: Parliament Watch. Speaking at Tehran University today, MP Ali Motahari, a vocal critic of the Ahmadinejad administration, has criticised the crackdown on students after the 2009 Presidential election. Considering why the repression occurred and why it continues, he said that there is an atmosphere of "fear and terror" in the Iranian Parliament because of the actions of some legislators.
2135 GMT: Sanctions Watch. The executive board of Nokia Siemens Networks has said that it will not take on any new business in Iran and will gradually reduce its existing commitments from 1 January 2012.
The Finnish company said in a letter to its staff in Iran that the decision was taken because US-led sanctions "make it almost impossible for Nokia Siemens Networks to do business with Iranian customers".
Nokia Siemens has been criticised for providing telecommunications equipment allowing the Iranian regime to maintain surveillance of protesters after the 2009 Presidential election.
2100 GMT: Economy Watch. Former Minister of Labor Hossein Kamali has claimed that more than 50% of Iran's workers now live below the poverty line.
Thursday, December 22, 2011 at 8:16