The Latest from Iran (10 July): Sifting the Claims on Khamenei v. Ahmadinejad

Mojtaba and Ali Khamenei1900 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Masoumeh Dehghan, the wife of lawyer Abdolfattah Soltani, has been released on $30,000 bail after her detention last week.

1625 GMT: The Revolutionary Guards Do Politics. Yadollah Javani, the head of the political bureau of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, has followed up the declaration of the IRGC commander, General Mohammad Ali Jafari, by declaring that former President Mohammad Khatami, Mir Hossein Mousavi, and Mehdi Karroubi are "leaders of fitna (sedition) and subversion".

Javani emphasised that the IRGC had a central role in stopping the reformists' scenario of sedition, with Jafari's words this past week as a continuing alert.

Amir Mohebian, the editor of the Resalat, has begged to disagree, however: calling Khatami "anti-revolutionary" is a damage to the Iranian system.

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Iran Analysis: Supreme Leader's Son Turns Against Ahmadinejad? --- What We Really Know

We note a sensational claim from Muhammad Sahimi at Tehran Bureau of a "crucial shift of sentiment by the Supreme Leader's son" --- Mojtaba Khamenei has supposed turned against President Ahmadinejad.

The problem with the claim, at least in this article, is the limited support for it. Sahimi's sole source for the assertion that the younger Khamenei "is now pressuring his father to allow the Majles to go forward with Ahmadinejad's impeachment" is an interview with former President Abolhassan Bani Sadr, exiled in Paris, who cites a source in Iran.

So what do we know?

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The Latest from Iran (9 July): "Somewhat Uncertain"

2155 GMT: And Now For Something Completely Different. I was interviewed this evening by the international service of Iranian State radio.

The topic? The closure of Rupert Murdoch's newspaper News of the World, first printed in 1843, because of a scandal over the hacking of private mobile phones, including the families of murder victims, those slain in the 2005 London bombing, and British troops killed in action.

2145 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Mansoura Behkish, human rights activist and member of the Mothers of Mourning, has been released from detention.

The reason for Behkish's arrest and the charges against her are still unknown.

2120 GMT: The Battle Within. Digarban summarises this week's dispute over gender separation in universities --- by ordering a halt to implementation, President Ahmadinejad has opposed parts of the clergy, including the Supreme Leader.

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The Latest from Iran (8 July): Manoeuvring for the Elections

2015 GMT: The Battle Within. MP Hamid Rasaei, an ally of President Ahmadinejad, has said that Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani should resign as head of the principlist faction in the Majlis. Rasaei specifically claimed that Larijani was supporting the reformists.

2000 GMT: Your Extra Friday Prayer Update. Did I mention that Ayatollah Jannati (see 1230 GMT) called on Muslims to liberate Bahrain from its monarchy?

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The Latest from Iran (7 July): A Model for Others?

2010 GMT: Religion and Vote-Buying. Grand Ayatollah Makarem Shirazi clarifies, "Buying votes is not allowed."

Makarem-Shirazi continues with the allegation that some MPs have bought voters w mobile phones, cash, food, and government allowances.

1955 GMT: CyberWatch (Battle Within Edition). For months, we have heard about the Iranian regime training cyber-warriors to wreak havoc on Tehran's enemies. However, it looks like the havoc-wreaking is happening within the establishment....

Three websites close to President Ahmadinejad and Chief of Staff Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai have been knocked off-line today. Hafte Sobh --- set up in part to promote Rahim-Mashai as a Presidential candidate in 2013 --- Tamasha News, and 1Shanbeh are each left tonight with nothing but two words in English.

"bye bye".

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Iran Feature: Could the Economy Bring Down Ahmadinejad...and the Regime? (Setrakian)

Sanctions are biting harder than ever, but business still gets done through the leaks and loopholes. So it’s not changing the regime’s behavior where it counts: on its nuclear policy, specifically, its accelerating enrichment of uranium. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s policies have been largely bad for business and made life harder for most Iranians. Together, that could get Ahmadinejad booted from office, but it probably won’t topple the regime. Iran is rolling in oil money – a salve for all its economic wounds. But Iran can’t effectively tap the wealth underground, given the bans on foreign investment in the energy sector. That, combined with overall mismanagement, makes Iran’s economy is “fundamentally unsustainable,” in the words of one analyst – a “patient with many viruses.”

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The Latest from Iran (6 July): Revolutionary Guards Do Politics

1850 GMT: Reformist Watch. Ali Shakouri Rad, a senior member of the Islamic Iran Participation Front, has told an audience of young supporters of Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mohammad Khatami, "We do not trust the government and the Guardian Council, and if they want to monitor elections --- given the context of past elections --- they are meaningless."

1705 GMT: Media Watch. Fars tries to take the high ground in the current political conflict, claims that the "disclosures" of the Supreme Leader's and Ahmadinejad's followers against each other are "media charlatanism".

1700 GMT: Parliament v. President. Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, in the midst of his play for support from the Supreme Leader, has declared that Ayatollah Khamenei, in a meeting with MPs, said the Majlis has the right to interrogate and impeach the President.

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Iran in the Movies: The Politics of Ashgar Farhadi's "Nader and Simin: A Separation" (Golsorkhi)

In the real world the Green Movement is stalling because it brought too many from Farhadi's couple A and not enough from couple B on to its side. Not simply because there are way more Bs than As, but because couple A have stuff to fall back on (potential for emigration, material wealth to cash in moment of crisis) and couple B have only faith and an apparently endless ability for suffering. 

Khamenei and Ahmadinejad both overestimate the reliability of this power base. This couple and this class are also capable of unravelling under pressure.

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Iran Cartoon of the Day: The Supreme Leader, Ahmadinejad, and the Dragon (Kowsar)

Nikahang Kowsar on the latest political tension, spurred by the dispute between President Ahmadinejad and the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps over smuggling....

The Supreme Leader tells the Dragon, "I didn't tell you that you shouldn't eat him, I said it's too early."

The Latest from Iran (5 July): The Supreme Leader's Message "Everyone Back Off"

2040 GMT: Back to the Revolutionary Guards. While the headline out of the interview of the head of the Revolutionary Guards, General Mohammad Ali Jafari (see 1205 GMT), was his declaration that the judiciary has given the Guards the authority to deal with the "deviant current", the label applied to President Ahmadinejad's advisors.there is so much more to be considered....

First, the confirmation that the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps was behind the recent arrests of several members of the "deviant current": "The IRGC arrested and detained these people based on a recommendation by the judiciary. These people have not committed security crimes. However, they have committed economic and moral offences. The people that have been arrested had close ties to the main figures of the (deviant) current."

Given that Mehr published this as a two-part interview yesterday and today, did Jafari make his statement before or after the Supreme Leader told everyone to back off public disputes (see 0515 GMT)?

And then there was Jafari crossing into politics, setting preconditions for the return of "acceptable" reformists to the arena:

Members of the reformist camp who have not crossed the redlines can naturally participate in political campaigns. However, [former President Mohammad] Khatami's success in his activities depends on his stances....During the sedition incident [the 2009 post-election protest], Mr Khatami did not pass his test successfully and he showed a lot of support for the sedition leaders [Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi]. At the moment, he has not yet adopted a stance to distance himself from those actions. If he still intends to resort to political manoeuvres, I do not think people will forgive him. However there are other individuals [in the reformist camp] who have not crossed the redlines and they can actively participate in political campaigns.

And Jafari had a glance at foreign affairs, saying that the uprisings in Syria were started "artificially" and were different in nature from those in other countries of the region: "The movements in Syria were provoked by the Americans, because Syria is the only country of the region that has stood up to the US and Israel."

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