Bin Laden Follow-Up: Waking Up to the Realities of Pakistan and Iran

Hamid Karzai, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Asif Ali ZardariThe real question now is whether the US and its allies will understand how deeply involved Tehran and Islamabad are in rejuvenating a dying insurgency in Afghanistan and turning it into a formidable force.

Click to read more ...

The Latest from Iran (2 May): Ahmadinejad Re-Appears

2015 GMT: A Matter of Intelligence. Borzou Daragahi of the Los Angeles Times, drawing from a source in Iran, offers this intriguing addition to the story of the political crisis over President Ahmadinejad's attempted dismissal of Minister of Intelligence Heydar Moslehi:

The source, an official in the conservative Islamic Coalition Party, said the President decided to fire Moslehi after being told that both Intelligence Ministry and Revolutionary Guard spies were eavesdropping on [Esfandiar Rahim] Mashaei, Ahmadinejad's in-law and right-hand man, who is mistrusted by hard-liners and right-wing clergy. Many believe Ahmadinejad is positioning Mashaei as his successor after his term ends in 2013.

"Top intelligence commanders of the Revolutionary Guard and Heydar Moslehi bugged the office of Mashaei --- as they must --- and monitored his private and public political behavior," said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the topic.

Mashaei, himself a former Intelligence Ministry official, discovered the electronic surveillance with the help of the ministry's No. 2, Hassan Abdollahian, the source said. Moslehi fired Abdollahian after discovering his role in divulging sensitive information to the Presidential office.

Told of the surveillance and the firing of Mashaei's confidant, Ahmadinejad on April 17 ordered Moslehi to hand in his resignation, appointing Abdollahian to replace him.

Click to read more ...

The Latest from Iran (1 May): A Love Letter to Ahmadinejad

2110 GMT: May Day Watch. The political crisis and security measures ensured that May Day and worker's issues make little headline impact.

However, seven Iranian labor organizations did publish a statement objecting to the violations of basic rights: “While all over the world, the workers’ show their joy and passion and will to fight on 1 May, and their free million-strong protests against their living conditions shake the world, Iranian workers are not only deprived of the social rights to establish organizations and street protests, they are exposed to the most severe attacks on their lives and livelihood.”

The seven labor organizations are the Syndicate of Workers of Tehran and Suburbs Bus Company, Iran Free Trade Union, the Committee To Restart The Paint and Decoration Construction Workers Syndicate, The Committee To Restart the Mechanical Metal Workers Syndicate, Center For The Defense of Workers, The Committee To Pursue Building Labor Coalitions, and The Coordinating Committee To Help Establish Labor Organizations.

The groups continued:

Any objection or demand of rights by the workers is answered with arrests and prison; the so-called ‘Targeted Subsidies’ plan which have been started by the ruling capitalists with the help of international capitalist organizations, is further destroying the lives and livelihoods of millions of workers’ families, and no one has the right to freely express their opinion about this; with the dizzying rise in the prices of energy and factory closures, everyday hundreds and thousand of workers join the other unemployed millions.

The signatories then put forth a 14-point set of demands, including "the unconditional freedom to set up independent labor organizations, to strike, to protest, to demonstrate, and to have freedom of belonging to political parties, freedom of assembly, freedom of expression, and a free press".

Click to read more ...

The Latest from Iran (30 April): Hiding

2130 GMT: Ahmadinejad Watch (Cyber Edition). Another pro-Ahmadinejad website, Aeen News, has been filtered inside Iran.

The blocking of the recently-established Aeen follows the filtering of several other sites supporting the President.

2110 GMT: Subsidy Cuts Watch. Parliament has struck, during President Ahmadinejad's absence, by limiting the Government's subsidy cuts.

The Majlis cut the estimated savings from $59 billion to $28 billion. Legislators claimed the subsidy cuts would escalate inflation, especially through prices for food and energy.

There were no immediate comments from the office of the President.

Click to read more ...

Iran Special: 5-Point Guide to Ahmadinejad v. Supreme Leader --- What Caused It, What It Means, and What Will Happen

1. IS THIS SERIOUS?

Yes --- as an Iran-based EA correspondent summarised, "It is more than cosmetic and it is more than a minor spat."

For confirmation, look at the signals from all sides. The President's disappearance since last week is more than a "sulk": with his failure to attend meetings of the Cabinet as well as other important bodies like the Supreme Council of the Cultural Revolution, he is effectively boycotting government with his colleagues.

The Supreme Leader staked out his position, first in a letter (leaked to supportive media) and then with a public statement, that he would not accept the forced "resignation" of the Minister of Intelligence, Heydar Moslehi. The Ministry would remain in his domain, not Ahmadinejad's.

And others around and linked to the two sides have staked out serious positions. Clerics, politicians, and officials have supported the Supreme Leader or the Government --- usually the former --- and there have been threats that Ahmadinejad could meet the fate of Iran's first President, Abolhassan Bani-Sadr, who was forced from office and barely escaped with his life in 1981.

Click to read more ...

The Latest from Iran (29 April): "We Will Destroy You"

1340 GMT: Your Tehran Friday Prayer Summary (Ahmadinejad Watch Edition). Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami takes the podium and has a straightforward message: "Enemies want to convey that there are differences in Iran, and media who follow them inflame the situation."

Khatami made no direct reference to the dispute over President Ahmadinejad's forced "resignation", later rescinded by the Supreme Leader. of Minister of Intelligence Heydar Moslehi (see separate analysis).

However, Khatami had this message: "The President should know that the majority vote for him was not absolute but conditional on his obedience towards the orders by the Supreme Leadership. The top of the system is the constitution, which has clarified the power structure."

Click to read more ...

The Latest from Iran (28 April): Ahmadinejad Watch

2000 GMT: A Matter of Intelligence. The reformist Mojahedin of the Islamic Revolution have issued a statement that the reinstatement of Minister of Intelligence Heydar Moslehi by the Supreme Leader is unconstitutional and paves the way for absolute dictatorship.

1955 GMT: Campus Watch. Claimed footage of a demonstration at Soreh University in Tehran on Wednesday --- students were protesting the presence of security forces which made the campus a "garrison":

Click to read more ...

Iran-Ahmadinejad Cartoon of the Day: An Angry Puppet (Kowsar)

Nikahang Kowsar continues his incisive coverage of the political tension between President Ahmadinejad and the Supreme Leader:

The Latest from Iran (27 April): Where's Mahmoud?

2020 GMT: A senior official of the US Treasury is in Turkey to "urge full and robust implementation of U.N. Security Council resolution 1929 [for sanctions] against Iran".

David Cohen said the US is concerned by Turkey's growing trade with Iran and has warned Turkish banks against dealing with blacklisted Iranian counterparts.

2015 GMT: Two more videos of Amir Kabir students protesting on Tuesday about poor food and dorm conditions (see 1535 GMT):

Click to read more ...

Iran Interview: Leading Conservative Cleric on Ahmadinejad Advisors --- "Spies Give Them Money. Traitors Give Them Money"

Hojatoleslam Jafar ShojouniIf anyone, Ahmadinejad or others, disregards the directives of the Leader, then they will have the same fate as Bani-Sadr, the hypocrites (a reference to the "terrorist" Mojahedin Khalq Organization), Shariatmadari, Montazeri and others. We respect Mr. Ahmadinejad but reject his obstinacy and the issue is [Presidential advisor Esfandiar Rahim] Mashai.

Click to read more ...