Belarus Updates: US Declares Elections Illegitimate

UPDATE 1915 GMT: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty reports that opposition candidate Vladimir Neklyayev, who was hospitalised on Sunday after he was beaten unconscious by police, was subsequently snatched from his hospital bed by men in plainclothes.

Now See Wednesday's Updates: 5 Presidential Candidates, 12 Others Accused of "Organising Riots"

UPDATE 1900 GMT: Activists claim that independent exit polls showed President Alexander Lukashenko was preferred by 40% of voters, followed by Vladimir Neklyayev with 19.3% and Andrei Sannikov with 13%.

The official return declared Lukashenko the victor with 80%, with no opponent getting more than 2.56%. Neklyayev was reportedly beaten unconscious and taken to hospital during Sunday protests.

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The Latest from Iran (19 December): The Subsidy Cuts Begin

2100 GMT: Subsidy Cuts Watch. One price rise that has not been picked up by most of the media....

While the price increase for gasoline is 300% for subsidised rations and 75% for unsubsidised fuel, the rise for diesel is about 2000%, from 16.5 tomans (about $0.15) to 350 tomans (about $3.00) per litre.

1720 GMT: Elections Watch. Legislators have changed the basis for the Parliamentary elections, setting them on the basis of provincial rather than district results. We are not yet sure of the significance of the change and will consult correspondents.

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Iran Analysis: Ahmadinejad Walks a Tightrope to Bring Out His Subsidy Cuts

Ahmadinejad is conscious he was walking on a tightrope. He was continously is trying to convince people, as if he could feel their scepticism. At one point, he reached out by claiming ---- rather sensationally --- that he was a freelance taxi driver, so he fully knows the plight of motorists.

The economic reality is that, whatever the merits in principles of the subsidy cuts, Ahmadinejad's approach has been haphazard and remains so.

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The Latest from Iran (18 December): A Big Event?

1945 GMT: Two Steps Ahead? Meanwhile, on the nuclear front, President Ahmadinejad is racing ahead with his "engagement" of the 5+1 Powers (US, UK, France, Germany, Russia, and China) in discussions on Iran's uranium enrichment.

Iran and the 5+1 agreed last week to further talks in Turkey in January but Ahmadinejad went further in his speech: "“I hope in talks in Istanbul, then in Brazil and then Tehran we could reach a framework of cooperation… this is to everyone's benefit. There were positive points in [Geneva] talks… I think it is time that their [the P5+1] confrontational policy turns into interactional policy."

1935 GMT: Sedition Watch (cont.). Rah-e-Sabz puts its gloss on the resistance of the head of judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, to the arrest of opposition figures (see 1650 GMT). According to the Green website, Larijani responded to those calling for the detention of Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi: "You have blamed the Supreme Leader indirectly by taking the judiciary as a shield (for your demands)."

1920 GMT: Subsidy Cuts? Yes. Ahh, here we go. Just catching up with Mardomak's LiveBlog....

IRNA's headline covered only the first couple of minutes of the speech. Almost all the statement, with declarations of Iran's potential to become a world-leading economy, was a presentation of the subsidy cuts. Ahmadinejad confirmed the chatter that implementation will begin tomorrow. He gave assurances such as the deposit of 4000 tomans (about $4) in people's bank accounts to cover the reduction in subsidies for bread. Each individual would receive a total of 81,000 tomans ($81) over the next two months.

Fars beats other websites to the punch with an article on Ahmadinejad's presentation of the "largest project in the economic history of Iran". Indeed, Fars has no less than five items playing up the subsidy cuts, with assurances that support payments for the poorest Iranians are fully-funded.

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Iran Analysis: Will Ahmadinejad Succeed on Subsidy Cuts?

Ashura is so day-before-yesterday.

On to the next possible big event. Tonight Mahmoud Ahmaidinejad will go on national television to address the Iranian public about his proposed subsidy cuts. 

Later Analysis: Ahmadinejad Walks a Tightrope to Bring Out Subsidy Cuts

On Friday, as we realised that there would be no post-Ashura boom for the regime, three EA correspondents chatted about the current situation.

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The Latest from Iran (17 December): Did We Miss the Regime's Show of Support?

1645 GMT: Division over the Foreign Minister. Deputy Speaker Mohammad Hassan Abutorabi-Fard has supported President Ahmadinejad's dismissal of Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki, but MP Mohsen Kouhkan, who said he heard of Mottaki's firing by SMS text, said the move was not wise at this moment.

Koukhan also claimed that MP Alaeddin Boroujerdi, a key member of the National Security Commission, is favoured as the new Foreign Minister by the Parliament.

1640 GMT: Ashura Moment. Aftab News publishes a photograph of President Ahmadinejad greeting supporters at a mourning ceremony.

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Iran Feature: The Battle Within and The Protests Are Still The Stories (Miller)

Western audiences, and especially Americans, don't like complicated, sad stories.  We like good guys and bad guys, cowboys and Indians, terrorists and allies.  We don't like to hear that 40-60% of the population of a country that we view as an enemy might very well be a friend.  We don't like to hear that the government we are negotiating with is illegitimate, or weak.  We also don't like to follow the slow development of an opposition movement that we can do little to help.  We like sexy stories like weapons of mass destruction or revolution, and we certainly like clarity.

Unfortunately, as long as we're not paying attention, we're also not helping, and until the media starts to cover these stories, many more people may die before things improve in Iran.

(Photograph by Munzz)

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The Latest from Iran (15 December): Attack In Southeastern City Kills Dozens

2145 GMT: This Morning's Bombing. Iranian officials have released the names of 32 of the 39 people killed in the suicide bombing in Chabahar in southeastern Iran.

2140 GMT: CyberWars. The hard-line Mashregh News is still down (see 1210 GMT).

2130 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Hashem Sabaghian, senior member of the Freedom Movement of Iran, has been released after he was detained this morning at a mourning ceremony at his house (see 0950 and 1749 GMT).

1749 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Activist Ahmad Ghabel has been given a 20-month prison sentence for working against the ruling system and insulting the Supreme Leader.

Ghabel was also given three years in exile, with a ban on interviews and lectures during that time.

More also on the raid on a mourning ceremony in which Hashem Sabaghian, former Minister of Interior Minister and leading member of Freedom Movement of Iran, was detained. Reformist cleric Hojatoleslam Soleimani, who was speaking at the ceremony at Sabbaghian's house in Tehran, was also seized.

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WikiLeaks and Iran: Is Tehran Establishing Bases in Latin America? (Sick)

Gary Sick, an official in the Carter and Reagan Administrations, covers a little-known story in the WikiLeaks documents, considering the possibility of an Iranian power play in Latin America to challenge the US.

However, he --- and the American diplomats handling the cases --- avoid the sensational conclusion of Washington v. Tehran in the region.

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The Latest from Iran (14 December): Power Plays

2030 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Lawyers Sara Sabaghian and Maryam Kianarsi have been released on bail.

Sebaghian, Kianarsi, and fellow attorney Maryam Karbasi were seized at Imam Khomeini Airport in mid-November as they returned from Turkey.

2025 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. More from the statement of Reza Khandan (see 1154 GMT), the husband of detained attorney Nasrine Sotoudeh, about his wife's situation....

Khandan explained the new charge in Sotoudeh's file of “failing to adhere to the Islamic code of dressing (hijab)”: “Two years ago Sotoudeh had been awarded a prize by the Italian Human Rights Committee and to express her gratitude, she had recorded a video message in Iran without covering her hair. The message was not shown in Iran.”

Khandan also denied the most recent claim of judiciary official Mohammad Javad Larijani that Sotoudeh had met with terrorist groups: "[She] has at no time been linked to terrorist groups and no such charge is in her file.”

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