Wikileaks Iran Special: US Diplomats Assess the Green Movement and the Political Situation (January 2010)

"The GPO [Green Movement] has a strong 'brand' - green, freedom, peace signs, silent marches, stolen election and martyrs like Neda Agha Soltani. But like the regime that seeks to crush it, the GPO is not monolithic. To characterize the GPO's active core as now primarily (but not exclusively) university students and university-age youth in a country so demographically young (for example, approximately one quarter of the population is in its twenties) is not to belittle its potential. Outside of the active GPO core group there is a larger, relatively passive group, whose support now mostly manifests in the anonymous shouts of 'God is Great' from night-time North Tehran rooftops or who scrawl or stamp anti-regime slogans on ten thousand Toman currency notes. Presumably many of them have fled the field due to fear of regime reprisal but might be drawn back into the fray if the prospects of a GPO victory, however defined, became more real to them than the prospect of blows from a Basiji baton."

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Wikileaks Analysis: Getting Behind the Revelations on Iran and Arab States

Shibley Telhami writes for The National Interest:

One of the highlights of the most recent Wikileaks release has been the focus on Arab attitudes toward Iran. The headlines suggest Arab unanimity in support of a U.S. or Israeli military attack on the Islamic Republic, as long as Arab governments are allowed to keep their heads low to the ground. There was much evidence, and many colorful quotations, to make the case, especially from Saudi, Bahraini, and United Arab Emirates' leaders. And although some of the quotations were jaw-dropping, in truth it was all a bunch of stuff we've heard before. But analysis by the media that followed, and the sweeping conclusion that "Arabs support attacking Iran", is misplaced and ignores significant differences among Arab governments about how to deal with Iran and especially missed the boat on true attitudes of the Arab public.

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Iran Snapshot: The Politics of Smog

Earlier this year, the Majlis approved a $2 billion expansion of the Tehran subway system, with extension of the existing services and completion of two new lines , taking the Metro from the centre of Tehran to Imam Khomeini International Airport 25 miles away. 

But the Ahmadinejad Government has refused to allow the allocation. The reason? It is another front in the contest for control between Parliament and the President, but the financing would also hand more power to another rival of Ahmadinejad, Tehran Mayor Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf.

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The Latest from Iran (1 December): Another Execution

1930 GMT: Economy Watch. From the latest inflation figures, highlights a 123% annual rise in the price of tomatoes. Other increases are 46% for fresh vegetables, 20% for red meat, 30% for oil, 34% for sugar, 15% for fruit, and 12% for tea. In contrast, chicken only rose in price by 5%.

1915 GMT: On Campus. Opposition websites claim that thousands of leaflets for rallies on 16 Azar (7 December) have been distributed at Qazvin University.

1845 GMT: Student activist Ali Gholizadeh has been released from prison.

The 15-year sentence imposed on blogger Hossein Ronaghi Maleki (Babak Khorramdin) has been confirmed by an appellate court.

Ali Akbar Nazari, a member of the Tehran Bus Workers Union, has been arrested.

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The Latest from Iran (30 November): Life Beyond Wikileaks

2010 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Student activist Nasim Soltanbaygi has been sentenced to six years in prison.

2005 GMT: Strike a (Nuclear) Pose. Back from a break to find President Ahmadinejad carrying out his standard approach --- agree to talks with the "West" but try to establish a position of strength by denouncing the "West" --- in a speech in Sari in northern Iran.

With discussions confirmed with the 5+1 Powers (US, UK, France, Germany, China, Russia) in Geneva on 6-7 December, the President charged, "While the Tehran negotiations [with Brazil and Turkey] were underway, you passed an illegal resolution against the Iranian nation and today you insist on continuing negotiations."

Ahmadinejad said is always ready to enter nuclear negotiations with the West as long as Iran's rights are respected, advising the negotiating side to put away its "tyrannical" attitude.

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Wikileaks-Iran Document: "Death to Khamenei" --- The Inside Line on the Post-Election Situation, Tehran's Politicians, Nuclear Talks, & US Hikers

"The biggest 'game changer' had been this past summer's presidential elections. The events were causing backlash from much of the population. Parents and grandparents were saying that they do not want their children to be forced to experience the same Iran that they, themselves, have been living under for the last 30 years. For the first time, one can see "kill Khamenei" and "death to Khamenei" scrawled on walls in Tehran. These direct challenges to Khamenei's authority are new and significant. Additionally, XXX expects that the population was disillusioned by the overwhelming fraud in the elections and many will not vote in the future."

EA correspondents believe this may be one of the valuable documents --- for intelligence and analysis --- to come out of the Wikileaks release so far. In December 2009, a European diplomat, who had recently left an ambassador's post in Iran, spoke to American officials about the 2009 election, Iran's internal situation, and the nuclear talks.

Each paragraph of this cable is filled with information and insight on post-election Iran, much of which is still relevant today.

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The Latest from Iran (29 November): Politics and Assassination

2045 GMT: Picture of Day. Cleric Ahmad-Reza Ahmedpour, released (see 1905 GMT) after eight months in prison.

1940 GMT: Today's Assassination. In his press conference,President Ahmadinejad said, "Undoubtedly the hand of the Zionist regime and Western governments is involved" in this morning's assassination (see 0730 and 1010 GMT) of one Iranian nuclear scientist and wounding of another.

Dr Majid Shahriari was killed and Professor Fereydoun Abbasi and his wife were wounded in separate car bombings in Tehran.

Mohammad Reza Rahimi, the 1st Vice-President, also blamed Israel, saying it had "picked up the weapon of terror". Speaking at a joint conference with Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri, Rahimi added, "We will remove this mask and devilish cover from their face and reveal their identity."

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Wikileaks-Iran Document: Problems with the Opposition and the Economy...in April 2009

Ahmadinejad's defeats on the budget and his plan to distribute cash payments to lower-income Iranians show that power centers, such as the Majles, are actively working to pressure the President prior to the June election....

Khamenei moderated his support for Ahmadinejad following Khatami's decision to exit the contest. Hosseini predicts Mir Hossein Mousavi will win the election.

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The Latest from Iran (27 November): Breaking News --- Supreme Leader is Fabulous

1335 GMT: Parliament v. President. Someone is getting worried that the effort to summon Mahmoud Ahmadinejad for Parliamentary questioning may succeed. Follow this carefully....

The pro-Ahmadinejad Islamic Republic News Agency is claiming that Ali Motahari, the MP leading the campaign for Ahmadinejad's interpellation, has struck a deal with the reformists: if Motahari can deliver 50 signatures on the petition for the President's appearance, the minority faction will give him 25 endorsements. That would make 75, more than the requirement of 1/4 of the 290-member Majlis.

On the surface, the story appears to be a triumph for Motahari, but I suspect it is an un-subtle attempt to tarnish him by claiming that he has resorted to devious scheming with the dubious reformists. Motahari, for his part, has claimed that almost all the signatures on his petition are from the majority principlist faction.

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The Latest from Iran (26 November): Connect the Meetings

2055 GMT: Parliament v. President. Ali Motahari, the leader of the movement to summon Mahmoud Ahmadinejad for Parliamentary questions, said that the demand will be made after the implementation of subsidy cuts. Motahari again said that there were nearly enough signatories --- 1/4 of the 290 MPs --- to call in Ahmadinejad, and that most of those signing were principlists.

Khabar Online, linked to Speaker Ali Larijani, posts a recent history of Parliament-President relations, documenting how Ahmadinejad has faced possible questioning on several previous occasions.

Khabar also claims that the battle for control of the Central Bank continues. Parliament recently voted to take oversight away from the President.

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