The Latest from Iran (28 February): The Regime's Escalation

2030 GMT: Not the Same. Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi has told journalists in Geneva, "There is absolutely no comparison between what is happening in the countries in the region and what has happened in Iran in a few incidents." He declared that Iran had only experienced a few "manipulated protests, while mass movements in the nations in the region are authentic, popular and people's movements".

Salehi said his government was "shocked" by Libyan leader Moammar Qaddafi's resort to force against civilians and hoped that "the power is transferred through legal means to the people".

2025 GMT: The Arrests. Zahra Eshraghi, human rights activist and granddaughter of Ayatollah Khomeini, has written on her Facebook page, "If Mousavi and Karroubi and their followers are anti-revolutionary, the Imam Khomeini must be as well."

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Latest from Iran (27 February): The Power of Nonviolent Movements?

Because of the significance of the news that the regime has detained opposition figures Mir Hossein Mousavi, Zahra Rahnavard, and Mehdi and Fatemeh Karroubi, putting them under the control of the Islamic Revolutoinary Guards Corps, we are now covering developments in that case in a separate LiveBlog.

2150 GMT: Pressing on Rights. The White House has issued a statement, "The United States strongly condemns the Iranian government's organized intimidation campaign and arrests of political figures, human rights defenders, political activists, student leaders, journalists and bloggers....The Iranian government should allow active dialogue among its citizens, freedom of speech, and freedom of assembly without fear. Iranians deserve the same justice and rights that their government extols the virtue of abroad."

The statement did not refer to specific cases, including this weekend's detention of opposition figures Mir Hossein Mousavi, Zahra Rahnavard, and Mehdi and Fatemeh Karroubi.

On Wednesday, the US imposed financial sanctions on Tehran Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi and the head of the Basij militia, Mohammad Reza Naqdi, for alleged human rights abuses.

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Iran Analysis: Can the Opposition Challenge the Regime? (Eshraghi v. Lucas)

Eshraghi: "As people cast around for the root cause of Iran's woes, no one is offering a convincing solution. Opposition activity is confined to reacting post factum to what the regime does."

Lucas: "The public revival through the marches is merely the sign that the opposition is still alive. The challenge will be to turn that into plans and objectives for change. That is a daunting challenge, but --- contrary to Esraghi's wayward pronouncement, 'Opposition activity is confined...to what the regime does' --- it is being pursued."

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The Latest from Iran (26 February): Uncertainties

2000 GMT: Closing Thoughts. A quiet evening, so we will end by noting a couple of thoughtful pieces....

Dave Siavashi of Iran News Now looks at the regime's efforts to crush opposition with house arrests to bring out a phrase that we like to use, "A Marathon, Not a Sprint":

The people of Iran have suffered under a tyrannical and cunning regime for 32 years. The regime is extremely entrenched, with a power-base that is diffuse, distributed and ideological. It is a monster, but one that has begun to lose its grip.

The marathon to be rid of it is well under way.

And "A Contributor" at Tehran Bureau writes:

This has been a period of self-reflection, developing consciousness of and responsibility for the current situation. The people have understood who and what they are dealing with and this is extremely important....While the traditional joys of Tehrani life were nowhere to be seen, while all its lightness was burdened down, if you looked very closely, you could detect in the depths the churning of a long-awaited tide of transition.

We will be back early Sunday morning.

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Iran Special: The Regime Debates "Arrest Mousavi and Karroubi?"

Minister of Intelligence Heydar Moslehi on State TV on Thursday night

An informed source and former Iranian government official [said]...that right after the February 14 protests, Heydar Moslehi, Iran's intelligence minister, attended a meeting with the Supreme Leader in which he asked for permission to arrest Karroubi and Mousavi. At the meeting, however, Khamenei criticized the Ministry of Information [Intelligence] for its reports, asking why its analysis of popular participation in the gatherings had been so wrong.

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From Tunisia/Egypt to Libya/Iran: Notes of Caution on Sudden Change

Events will move to the breaking point, when someone holds a gun to someone else's head, and everyone is forced to react. With Mir Hossein Mousavi under house arrest, Mehdi Karroubi under the constant guard of security forces in his own home, Hashemi Rafsanjani's power being challenged on the Assembly of Experts, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's term expiring, and the 2009 spirit of dissent reviving, the question is when that point is reached.

The earthquakes of Egypt and Tunisia built up for a long time on softer ground. It has taken, and will take, much longer for the fault lines to break the foundations of Iran's government. When it happens, the regime is likely to go quickly, and like a high-magnitude earthquake, the results will be felt far and wide.

We're already feeling the foreshocks, but the whole world is waiting for the big one.

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The Latest from Iran (24 February): The Mousavi-Karroubi Question

2130 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. The debate over Hashemi Rafsanjani's future as head of the Assembly of Experts continues. MP Hojatoleslam Seyed Reza Akrami has jumped in on Khabar Online, declaring that criticism of Rafsanjani is "against law and morality".

2120 GMT: Assessing Crackdowns. Majid Mohammadi, writing for Gooya, offers a sharp analysis of regimes "managing street protests" and setting limits on the killing of dissenters, comparing Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen, and Iran.

2110 GMT: Tonight's Regime Show. The Internet chatter this evening is not about the opposition but about the performance of Minister of Intelligence Heydar Moslehi on national television.

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Latest Iran Video: The Protests of 1 Esfand

Protests Against the Supreme Leader

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Iran Special: Protest --- From Tunisia to Egypt to the Green Movement (The Newest Deal)

As a special for today, amidst the possibility of opposition marches we post The Newest Deal's analysis of protest in North Africa, the Middle East, and Iran:

Despite what the movement's leaders, Mir-Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karoubi, are forced to say publicly, this is no longer a struggle merely aimed at "reforming" the existing system. Those days are over, and both Mousavi and Karoubi likely recognize this in private.

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The Latest from Iran (20 February): So What Happens on 1 Esfand?

2225 GMT: More Political Prisoners. Tehran University School of Science student Sohrab Jafari and law student Habib Farahzadi were arrested today.

2135 GMT: More 1 Esfands. In an interview with Radio Farda, Mehdi Karroubi's advisor Mojtaba Vahedi gets to the point: he is impressed with the turnout today and there will be more protests until demands are met.

Vahedi adds that mounting casualties will only have the same effect as 1979, building up a rally of mourning.

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