Wikileaks Iran Special: US Diplomats Assess the Green Movement and the Political Situation (January 2010)

"The GPO [Green Movement] has a strong 'brand' - green, freedom, peace signs, silent marches, stolen election and martyrs like Neda Agha Soltani. But like the regime that seeks to crush it, the GPO is not monolithic. To characterize the GPO's active core as now primarily (but not exclusively) university students and university-age youth in a country so demographically young (for example, approximately one quarter of the population is in its twenties) is not to belittle its potential. Outside of the active GPO core group there is a larger, relatively passive group, whose support now mostly manifests in the anonymous shouts of 'God is Great' from night-time North Tehran rooftops or who scrawl or stamp anti-regime slogans on ten thousand Toman currency notes. Presumably many of them have fled the field due to fear of regime reprisal but might be drawn back into the fray if the prospects of a GPO victory, however defined, became more real to them than the prospect of blows from a Basiji baton."

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Wikileaks-Iran Document: Problems with the Opposition and the Economy...in April 2009

Ahmadinejad's defeats on the budget and his plan to distribute cash payments to lower-income Iranians show that power centers, such as the Majles, are actively working to pressure the President prior to the June election....

Khamenei moderated his support for Ahmadinejad following Khatami's decision to exit the contest. Hosseini predicts Mir Hossein Mousavi will win the election.

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Iran Witness: Journalist Jalali Farahani "We Knew That Mahmoud Ahmadinejad Was Not Re-Elected"

On the night of the election at the Mehr news agency, we knew that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was not reelected because Mehr had reporters in cities across Iran and we were receiving reports every minute about the results in different cities, we knew about the votes Ahmadinejad had received and the votes that went to Mir Hossein Musavi. We even had figures about the ballot boxes from outside the country. 

Around 7 p.m. when we did an approximate count of the vote, we came to the conclusion that Mir Hossein Musavi was the new president. Around 4 p.m. our reporter reported that armed Revolutionary Guards had attacked the central election office of Musavi. 

Imagine, we're there covering the news and we're receiving all these reports, around 6 p.m. a friend of mine who worked at the "Iran" daily called me and said that the manager of the paper had told all the staff to come to work to prepare a special issue for the victory of Ahmadinejad -- the election process had not ended at this point. 

That night was the worst night of my career, not only me but for all my colleagues -- even those who supported Ahmadinejad who were only a few at the Mehr news agency -- they could see that there was fraud.

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Iran Document: Mehdi Karroubi to Youth "This Situation Will Not Last....The Future Belongs to You"

Don't be sad!  for sure this situation of governing the country will not last as is. These events will pass and  pride and victory will belong to the Iranian nation. As you witnessed, relying on military through organizing a bunch of thugs in Basij clothes and some hired individuals, and imposing restrictions for individuals such as myself, Mr. Mousavi, Ms. Rahnavard, members of our families and other political figures and activists, not only caused harm for the totalitarians, but also showed that despite their claims of having control and eliminating the criticizing movement, the movement is still alive and has deep roots in the society and that is why they desperately commit such hopeless acts.

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The Latest from Iran (5 October): The Economy, Arrests, and Ahmadinejad v. Parliament

1729 GMT: Nuclear Watch (Better Late than Never). The head of Iran's atomic energy organisation, Ali Akbar Salehi, said today, "The start-up process of the Bushehr power plant is progressing well and we hope to see it connected to the national electricity grid by late December, or a few weeks earlier." 

The Bushehr plant was supposed to be operational this month but Iranian official said last week that the launch would be delayed. Salehi said this was because of a "small leak" in a pool near the plant after stories circulated that Bushehr might have been hindered by the Stuxnet computer worm.

1725 GMT: Mousavi Watch. In his latest interview on Kalemeh, Mir Hossein Mousavi has declared that President Ahmadinejad's foreign policies are destructive and his performance should be judged in a referendum.

1720 GMT: Currency Watch. Iranian Labor News Agency reports that lines in front of governmental currency exchange shops are 10 meters long. Dollars are being traded at open rates, as opposed to the government's official rates, elsewhere.

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The Latest from Iran (3 October): Sedition's Gonna Get Ya

2020 GMT: Economy Watch --- Revised. An EA source makes a vital correction to our [portrayal of the article in Peyke Iran that 48 million of Iran's 75 million people "live below the poverty line" (see 1900 GMT):

There is no official poverty line in iran.  All the article says is that 2/3 of Iranian families have incomes under $800 a month.  That is almost $10,000 a year/household. We know that Iran is a middle-income country, so that should not shock anyone.

2010 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch (Revolving Door Edition). So as Alireza Beheshti Shirazi leaves detention, Saeed Noormohammadi, a member of the youth branch of the Islamic Iran Participation Front, goes back to prison.

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The Latest from Iran (27 September): Corruption and Economic Crisis

2034 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei, at his press conference for Iran's judiciary, said officials were following up the claims of torture in detention made by Hamzeh Karami, former aide to Hashemi Rafsanjani and managing editor of the website Jomhouriyat.

Karami had written a five-page letter about his treatment in prison, parts of which came out in the opposition media. Rafsanjani also personally presented Karami's file to the Supreme Leader and asked for his intervention.

2030 GMT: Oil Squeeze. Earlier today (see 1520 GMT) we reported on the warning by Hamid Katouzian, the chair of Parliament's Energy Commission, that Minister of Oil Masoud Mirkazemi might be impeached if he defied the Majlis over international treaties. 

That was not all. Katouzian also took apart Mirkazemi's public claim that Iran was rapidly becoming self-sufficient in gasoline production, warning that such a push --- with measures such as conversion of petrochemical plants --- could be harmful in the long term to the country.

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The Latest from Iran (26 September): Striking News

1835 GMT: Family Matters. A group of 40 women's rights activists has delivered a petition with 5000 signatures to the Parliament urging legislators to halt all efforts in "promoting temporary marriages and polygamy."

1825 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Rozita Vaseghi has been moved out of solitary detention after five months. 

Vaseghi, a Baha’i follower, was arrested in 2005 and summoned in January 2010 for sentencing. She received a five-year prison term and wasbanned from leaving Iran for then years. She was taken into custory in March.

Rah-e-Sabz does the maths and concludes that 1100 years in prison sentences have been handed out to 145 detainees in Evin Prisoner. The youngest political prisoner is 19, the oldest 73.

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Iran Analysis: How Secure is Ahmadinejad?

The Los Angeles Times parallels our analysis with an article this morning, "Iran is Far From United Behind Mahmoud Ahmadinejad".

And this passage in a Council on Foreign Relations interview with Professor Kaveh Ehsani, who is based at Chicago's DePaul University, is striking:

I don't think Ahmadinejad is in such a strong position. In fact, nobody is in a strong position in Iran at this moment.

It's very unclear who has the ultimate legitimacy. The population seems to be highly angered, disillusioned with a lot of the leaders. The Green Movement leaders --- [Mir Hossein] Mousavi and [Mehdi] Karroubi, the two presidential candidates who were the victims of the rigged elections --- seem to have retained their popular support among those who are unsatisfied with the system, but we don't know how strong these sentiments are because there is no way to measure it. There are no opinion polls, there is no free media. All the oppositional press has been suppressed.

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The Latest from Iran (23 September): Sending Out the Message, Cutting Off the Message

1559 GMT: Propaganda of Day. So I'm watching Press TV for a hint of when Mahmoud Ahmadinejad will take the podium at the UN and these glorious shots of high-technology plants and hard-working engineers appears....

"The proud Iranian nation has accomplished another ground-breaking feat: the beginning of gasoline production in six petrochemical plants....Self-sufficiency in gasoline production is now within reach. The National Iranian Petrochemical Company. 'Yes, We Can'."

1555 GMT: Another Russia Snub? Novosti, via Peyke Iran, reports that President Medvedev has banned Basij commander Mohammad Reza Naqdi and Iranian nuclear officials from entering Russia.

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