The Latest from Iran (30 July): Watching Out for Enemies

1700 GMT: Ahmadinejad Watch (cont.). And for the most distinctive source of criticism today, consider the head of Iran's armed forces, General Hassan Firouzabadi, who has told Fars, "Subsidy refunds and justice shares should not be abused for campaigning."

That is a pointed jab at President Ahmadinejad, accused of using "justice shares" --- dividends from state holdings handed out to the public --- to influence votes in the 2009 Presidential election, and his allies, accused of wanting to do the same in the 2012 and 2013 Parliamentary and Presidential ballots.

1600 GMT: Ahmadinejad Watch. Even amidst the frequent criticism of the President these days, this blast from Ahmad Salek of the Society of Militant Clergies is rather special:

Hopefully the djinns around Ahmadinejad aren't British, Israeli, and Russian....Obama & Netanyahu supported him because Ahmadinejad shares the same beliefs....Ahmadinejad sat at home with 25 million votes [in the disputed 2009 election], but people didn't support him because the Islamic Republic has its own management."

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The Latest from Iran (14 July): Divisions within the Regime, Divisions within the Reformists

1610 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. More information about actress and filmmaker Pegah Ahangarani, who was reportedly detained earlier this week.

Ahangarani was supposed to cover this month's Women's Football World Cup in Germany for a blog on Deutsche Welle but was stopped from travelling a day before her depature. She then spent a few days with relatives, but there has been no contact with her since she returned home.

Ahangarani's latest documentary, shown on BBC Persian, is "Dehnamkiha". It narrates the life of Massoud Dehnamaki, one of the founders of the conservative activist group Ansar-e Hezbollah and now a prominent filmmaker. Ahangarani said the film had irritated officials and may have been the reason she was recently summoned by the Ministry of Intelligence for questioning.

1600 GMT: CyberWatch. An official of the Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance has said that the new social networking site Google Plus is the latest US spyware. It is supposedly replacing Facebook, which has suffered a large drop in users.

Iran authorities have announced the filtering of Google Plus, even though it is still in pilot stage.

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Iran Analysis: Supreme Leader's Son Turns Against Ahmadinejad? --- What We Really Know

We note a sensational claim from Muhammad Sahimi at Tehran Bureau of a "crucial shift of sentiment by the Supreme Leader's son" --- Mojtaba Khamenei has supposed turned against President Ahmadinejad.

The problem with the claim, at least in this article, is the limited support for it. Sahimi's sole source for the assertion that the younger Khamenei "is now pressuring his father to allow the Majles to go forward with Ahmadinejad's impeachment" is an interview with former President Abolhassan Bani Sadr, exiled in Paris, who cites a source in Iran.

So what do we know?

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The Latest from Iran (28 June): Towards the Next Elections

1810 GMT: Khamenei's Balancing Act? More on the statement of the Supreme Leader's representative to the Revolutionary Guards, Mojtaba Zolnour (see 1435 GMT)....

While defending Ayatollah Khamenei's support of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in the 2009 election, Zolnour said that the "nezam" (system) was interrogating elements of the "deviant current".

Significantly, Zolnour indicated that the President's right-hand man Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai was the head of this deviant current and that the Guardian Council would reject him as a Presidential candidate in 2013.

1800 GMT: Ahmadinejad v. Khamenei? The pro-Ahmadinejad Absar News has warned the "aghazade-ha" (sons of influential persons) not to eliminate the President.

So at whom is Absar pointing? Digarban thinks it is Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of the Supreme Leader.

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The Latest from Iran (26 June): When Arrests Are "Normal"

2000 GMT: Reformist Watch. MP Dariush Ghanbari has given an indication that reformists --- or at least those allied with him --- will participate in the 2012 Parliamentary vote, saying they have "serious plans" for the elections.

1910 GMT: The Hunger Strikers. Kalemeh reports that two of the six hunger strikers at Rajai Shahr Prison, Masoud Bastani and Isa Saharkhiz, have been transferred to the infirmary.

Earlier today (see 1650 GMT) Isa Saharkhiz's son Mehdi said his father was in "critical condition" after three days on hunger strike.

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Iran Special: A Rafsanjani Alliance with "Moderate Conservatives"?

Watch these references to "unity" from Rafsanjani and the "moderate conservatives". They may indeed mark a unification --- one which is not of support for the Government, but of the forging of an alliance to challenge Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and his closest allies.

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The Latest from Iran (22 January): Documenting the Prisoners

1625 GMT: Why the Nuke Talks Stalled. A significant detail from Reuters....

The agency reports, from a "Western diplomat", that European Union foreign policy representative Catherine Ashton, speaking for the 5+1 Powers (US, UK, Germany, China, Russia, France) proposed that Iran send abroad 2,800 kilogrammes of low-enriched (3-4%) uranium and 40 kilogrammes of 20% uranium.

As Iran, according to Reuters, has a stockpile of "more than 3000 kilogrammes" of low-enriched uranium, the 5+1 Powers were effectively telling Iran that up to 90% of its uranium stock should be sent outside the country for processing.

Compare that with the offer on the table in Geneva in October 2009, which led to further talks before discussions stalled the following months: the 5+1 proposed that Iran send 60% of its low-enriched uranium (then estimated at 2000 kilogrammes) to Russia and France --- later Russia and France --- for processing. (At that point, Iran had no confirmed stocks of 20% uranium.)

Given Tehran's insistence on enriching uranium inside its borders, it's not too surprising that the 5+1's offer --- far worse for Tehran than what was on the table 15 months ago --- has not been welcomed.

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The Latest from Iran (21 January): It's Nuclear Talks Day!

2035 GMT: Execution Watch (Bahrami Edition). It looks like the Iranian Foreign Ministry may be a bit uncomfortable about the attention to the death sentence imposed on Iranian-Dutch national Zahra Bahrami.

Ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast insisted in a press conference today that Bahrami's capital punishment was merited because she was "carrying more than one kilogram (2.2 pounds) of narcotics". He continued, "It is expected from the western countries to appreciate Iran's efforts to combat drug trafficking and even cooperate accordingly. Unfortunately, however, we are witnessing their support for Zahra Bahrami and they have even called for her release."

None of the claimed evidence has been presented against Bahrami publicly, and the Iranian authorities have imprisoned her lawyer, Nasrine Sotoudeh, and refused to allow Dutch officials to visit one of their citizens.

Mehmanparast did not deal with any of these issues although he did make a curious allusion to the dual nationality: "Apart from an Iranian passport, Bahrami holds other passports, including European ones."

Mehmanparast concluded with the warning against further intervention: the West should realise that if the issue of narcotics is not taken seriously, it will directly affect their own youth who will be entrapped by drug traffickers.

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WikiLeaks and Iran 2007: "The President is a Puppet of the Leader"

In April 2007, an MP and senior member of the Islamic Iran Participation Front offers some provocative comments on Iranian politics to the US Consulate in Dubai.

Supreme Leader Khamenei aspires to become the "emperor" of the Islamic world and is willing to sacrifice Iranian national interests for this goal. He sees President Ahmadi-Nejad as merely a puppet of the Supreme Leader, under the leader's complete control. Ahmadi-Nejad, in turn, sees more pragmatic conservatives such as [Speaker of Parliament Ali] Larijani and [Tehran Mayor Mohammad-Baqer] Qalibaf as his main rivals.

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Wikileaks Iran Special: US Diplomats Assess the Green Movement and the Political Situation (January 2010)

"The GPO [Green Movement] has a strong 'brand' - green, freedom, peace signs, silent marches, stolen election and martyrs like Neda Agha Soltani. But like the regime that seeks to crush it, the GPO is not monolithic. To characterize the GPO's active core as now primarily (but not exclusively) university students and university-age youth in a country so demographically young (for example, approximately one quarter of the population is in its twenties) is not to belittle its potential. Outside of the active GPO core group there is a larger, relatively passive group, whose support now mostly manifests in the anonymous shouts of 'God is Great' from night-time North Tehran rooftops or who scrawl or stamp anti-regime slogans on ten thousand Toman currency notes. Presumably many of them have fled the field due to fear of regime reprisal but might be drawn back into the fray if the prospects of a GPO victory, however defined, became more real to them than the prospect of blows from a Basiji baton."

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