Turkey Analysis: What Does Ankara's New "Red Book" of Threats Mean?

On Wednesday, Turkey's National Security Council (MGK) agreed to make radical changes to a document. referred to as the “Red Book” or the "Secret Constitution", in which the main threats over the next five years to Turkey's security are outlined.  

Is the Erdogan government a new "De Gaulle" which is just pursuing its political calculations or is it the Trojan Horse aligning with "radicals" such as Iran, Syria, Hamas and Hezbollah?

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Turkey Analysis: The Growing Debate over a Presidential System

Although Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has made it clear that the new Constitution will only be drafted after the parliamentary elections of June 2011, heated public debate over the document continues. 

In April, Erdoğan’s said, "Turkey could adopt a presidential system" if the people supported the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) in the 2011 general elections. Then, welcoming the results of the 12 September referendum on constitutional change, the Prime Minister handed the responsibility for drafting the new constitution to Burhan Kuzu, an MP from AKP and the head of the Constitutional Commission in the Parliament, who is known for his frequent references to the adoption of Erdogan's favoured system. 

Although Ömer Çelik, AKP's Deputy Chairman, has said that transition to the presidential system is currently not on the party’s agenda, the issue is likely to mark the post-election process in Turkish politics, with AKP putting forth the proposal to the public after the June 2011 elections. In those elections, AKP will be more populist than ever as it pursues consensus; the other major parties will re-align themselves to meet this strategy, especially if they cannot devise an alternative project.

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The Latest from Iran (21 September): Protests and Gasoline

2025 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. AFP has now picked up the story that former President Hashemi Rafsanjani met the families of political prisoners and promised to raise their cases with the Supreme Leader.

2015 GMT: Attacking the Judiciary. A curious and possibly significant editorial in the official Islamic Republic News Agency --- which is generally in league with the President's office --- criticising Iran's judiciary for allowing political prisoners to write letters which are then publicised.

1930 GMT: Economy Watch. Vice President Mohammad Reza Mirtajoddini has denied that the Government is postponing the implementation of its subsidy cuts, scheduled for next week.

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Middle East Special Analysis: The Israel-Syria-Palestine Triangle

Washington’s “Wise” Plan?

As the deadline for Israel's construction freeze in the West Bank approaches, US Mideast special envoy George Mitchell hinted at a tactical manoeuvre to keep the Palestinian Authority at the table for direct talks after 26 September: "We think it makes sense to extend the moratorium.”

What kind of extension could this be, however? Relatively short, at best, given the position of Israel's Netanyahu Government. The American hope is to keep some momentum in discussions, avoiding both an Israeli walkout and the labelling of the Palestinians as "rejectionist".  

As soon as the Arab League responded by saying that they would back Ramallah if Israel resumes construction from 26 September, Washington refined its manoeuvre. US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton talked to Israel’s Channel 10 on Thursday: "Where we sit now it would be useful for some extension, it would be extremely useful. I don't think a limited extension would undermine the process going forward if there were a decision agreed to by both parties."

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The Latest from Iran (17 September): The President's Political Baggage

2035 GMT: Ahmadinejad's Foreign Policy Power Play (cont.). So the Iranian President has given his nationally-televised speech in advance of his trip to the United Nations.

Nothing unexpected, as Ahmadinejad gave the ritual thrashing of US foreign policy --- misguided towards Iran, Iraq, the Middle East, and Afghanistan --- and declared that the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is "under Western pressure" as it reports on Iran's nuclear programme. His symbolic play was to associate himself with Persia's great rulers by referring to how he brought back the Cyrus Cylinder to Iran from the British Museum (albeit only on loan for four months).

An Iranian activist has the best blow-by-blow summary.

2030 GMT: Sanctions Watch. Didi Remez, writing for Israel's Yediot Ahronoth, reports on Italy's growing trade with Iran:

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Turkey's Constitutional Referendum: Follow-Up Analyses --- Victory or Diversion?

Yesterday we featured an analysis by Dr Basak Alpan of Sunday's referendum in Turkey, in which 58% of voters approved 26 amendments to the 1982 Constitution. Alpan was pessimistic about the significance of the "Yes" vote: "It is not yet clear how the social forces of the Turkish political landscape will react to the new constitution but it is crystal-clear that neither the ‘yes’ side nor the ‘no’ side won at yesterday’s referendum. All of us --- except for the Executive and the business world, with its obsession with "stability" --- lost."

Some other assessments of the vote and the apparent victory of the ruling Justice and Development Party:

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Turkey: Honouring a Basketball Team With People's Taxes

Ali Yenidunya With A US Player Who Did Not Receive His Tax MoneyLast week, Turkey's basketball team reached the final of the 2010 World Championship. After the Turks hammered Serbia in the semi-finals, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan --- a day before the referendum on 26 amendments to the Constitution ---- announced that 1.5 million Turkish Lira ($1 Million) would be given to the team due to its success. The total amount of 28 million TL ($18.7 million) promised by the head of Turkey was handed over in a cheque to the captain of the team, Hidayet Turkoglu, a member of the Phoenix Suns in the US National Basketball Association.

An admission, dear reader: in the final match, I belonged to the very small minority in Turkey who supported the USA with all of our hearts. And our wallets --- can you imagine the debt/tax burden if Turkey had won the cup?

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