US Elections 2012 Feature: The 7 Senate Races to Watch --- and Why They Are Important for the Next President

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The overall picture for the Senate then is that the Democrats should win Virginia, Wisconsin and Massachusetts to give them 52 seats. There are enough reasons to doubt Republican chances in Indiana and Nevada to suggest a Democrat might win one of those states, leaving a 53-47 majority.

But this is a Presidential election year, where Senate races are not as safe to call as in off-Presidential campaigns where the candidates stand or fall a bit more on their own merits. Republican faith in their theory of a lacklustre Democratic turnout may be nothing but a fantasy, but until the results start to confirm Obama's lead in the polls as reality, then Democrats face the possibility of losing the Senate as well as the White House. It is unlikely, but stranger results have happened in recent American political history.

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US Politics Feature: What A Conservative Surge in the 2012 Elections for Congress Could Mean

This November, America goes to the ballot box to elect not only the President but also the Congress that will either implement or obstruc, the White House programme. The House of Representatives is likely to remain in the control of Republicans, but the Senate --- where Democrats currently enjoy a slight majority, aided by the support of the chamber's two Independents --- is a less predictable story. Conservative Republicans believe they have the opportunity to overturn the Democrats' slender advantage, and, just as importantly, return new Senators who will align with the Tea Party Caucus.

That strategy took on the shape of the possible on Tuesday in Indiana when Richard Mourdock, a conservative heavily backed by pro-market and Tea Party groups from outside the state, defeated six-term Senator Dick Lugar in the GOP primary.

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