Iran Live Coverage: "Positive" Nuclear Talks?

Iran Analysis: 7 Things We Know --- And Do Not Know --- About the Nuclear Talks
Iran Analysis: What Tehran's Nuclear Negotiator Actually Said About the Talks
Wednesday's Iran Live Coverage: No News is Good or Bad News at the Nuclear Talks?

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1812 GMT: Clashes over Water Shortages? BBC Persian is claiming that farmers, protesting over water shortages, have been injured in clashes with security forces in Isfahan.

Supplies have reportedly been limited for more than 40 days after a burst in a water main. Security forces were deployed yesterday to disperse protesters with tear gas and rubber bullets.

Images have circulated on the Internet of a bus, carrying Government troops, which was set on fire:

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Iran Analysis: What Tehran's Nuclear Negotiator Actually Said About the Talks (Paraszczuk)

On Wednesday, a press conference by Iran's chief negotiator Saeed Jalili set much of the tone of Western coverage of the two-day nuclear talks between the Islamic Republic and the 5+1 Powers (US, Britain, France, Germany, Russia, and China). In particular, the accounts, emphasising Jalili's presentation of "positive" discussions, pointed to a breakthrough on issues that had stalemated negotiations for months.

While this was part of Jaili's statement, he offered much more than this. Indeed, "positive" has to be put in the context of clear cautions from Jalili, the Secretary of the National Security Council, that the US and Europe will have to put more on the table regarding Iran's right to enrichment, guarantee of a supply fo 20% uranium, and sanctions relief.

Joanna Paraszczuk translates key extracts from the press conference and offers an annotated analysis:...

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Iran Analysis: 7 Things We Know --- And Do Not Know --- About the Nuclear Talks

Catherine Ashton, lead negotiator for the 5+1 Powers, and Iranian counterpart Saeed Jalili

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1. MORE HIGH-LEVEL TALKS ARE SCHEDULED FOR APRIL

Whatever the questions that follow in the rest of this analysis, whatever the cautions, this is the "positive" development that Iran's chief negotiator Saeed Jalili highlighted and that Western media are emphasising.

I did not expect the 5+1 Powers and Iran to schedule another round of discussions before Tehran's Presidential elections in June. I did not expect enough of a shift by the US and European countries in their demands --- or, alternatively, unilateral concessions by Iran --- to make these more than "holding" talks to stave off consideration of a military option against the Islamic Republic.

To my surprise, there was enough movement to justify not only investment in technical talks in Istanbul on 17-18 March but also the declaration of a high-level gathering on 5 April.

However....

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Iran Live Coverage: No News is Good or Bad News at the Nuclear Talks?

Iran's chief nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili speaks with Al Jazeera English

See also Iran Special: Taking Apart the "Iran's Plan B for a Nuclear Bomb" Scare Story

Iran Follow-Up Video: How Fars News Protected the Oscars from Michelle Obama's Shoulders
Tuesday's Iran Live Coverage: Today's Nuclear Talks in Kazakhstan

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1948 GMT:Oil Watch. Turkey maintained its current import level of three cargoes of Iranian crude oil in February.

Turkey has been importing three Suezmax tankers cargoes a month of Iranian crude oil since September, half of what Ankara used to purchase from Iran.

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Iran Live Coverage: Today's Nuclear Talks in Kazakhstan

Catherine Ashton, lead nuclear negotiator for the 5+1 Powers, and Iranian counterpart Saeed Jalili today

See also Monday's Iran Live Coverage: Ahmadinejad's Advisor Mortazavi Faces Trial

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2138 GMT: Sanctions Watch. Officials, showing corroborating documents, claim Iran is using old tankers --- saved from the scrapyard by foreign middlemen --- to ship oil to China and avoid Western sanctions.

Eight very large crude carriers (VLCCs), each of which can carry close to a day's worth of Tehran's exports, have loaded Iranian oil at sea.

The eight tankers, built up to 20 years ago, can carry about 16 million barrels of oil among them, shipping databases show.

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Syria Live Coverage: After the Diplomacy, More Shelling and Deaths

1613 GMT: Opposition Talks May Be Falling Apart. Over the weekend, opposition leader Moaz al-Khatib, head of the Syrian National Coalition, held talks with the US, the UN, and Russia, where he offered to negotiate with the Assad regime on the condition that Assad is not part of any transitional government. Al Khatib's goal in the talks was to find a solution that would "help the regime leave peacefully." Now, he says, the ball is in Assad's court:

"The regime must take a clear stand [on dialogue] and we say we will extend our hand for the interest of people and to help the regime leave peacefully," he said. "It is now in the hands of the regime."

Al-Khatib said that his initiative was "humanitarian" in order to save Syrian lives and what remains of the country's infrastructure after nearly two years of conflict.

"The big powers have no vision [for a solution] ... Only the Syrian people can decide on the solution."

Khatib faces three major challenges, all of which could unravel the efforts to end the crisis. The first, and arguably most important, is that the Assad regime has not responded to the call to negotiate, and has failed to abide by any other deals it has made in the past. All previous statements have suggested that President Bashar al Assad will not leave his government, the regime will not stop its military campaign against "terrorists," a label for all the rebels (and peaceful protesters) who have resisted Assad rule, and the opposition has no legitimacy.

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Syria Live Coverage: Diplomatic Breakthrough? Opposition Leader Meets Russia & Iran Foreign Ministers

Claimed footage of the moment that a mortar strike killed three activists in the Damascus suburb of Eastern Ghouta

See also Iraq (and Beyond) Live Coverage: Dozens Killed in Attack on Police Headquarters
Saturday's Syria Live Coverage: Aid Reaches an Opposition-Held Town

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1926 GMT: Casualties. Claimed footage from the al-Ansari section of Aleppo of men digging for survivors in a collapsed building, reportedly struck by a by regime shelling:

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Iran Live Coverage: The Supreme Leader's Men Launch Their Presidential Campaign

See also Iran Audio Feature: Hype & Reality from Syria to "Explosion at Nuclear Plant" --- Scott Lucas with Monocle 24
Friday's Iran Live Coverage: Tehran Mayor --- Why We Are Engineering the Presidential Election

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1622 GMT: Nuclear Snap Analysis. The headline from the Munich Security Conference is of a statement by US Vice President Joe Biden that Washington is ready for direct talks with Tehran and that it is past time for Tehran to negotiate seriously.

Biden's declaration has been complemented by a message from European Union foreign policy head Catherine Ashton, the lead negotiator for the 5+1 Powers. German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle added that, despite the failure to resume high-level discussions, there was no reason for military action, a point echoed by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.

Three pointss:

1. In the short-term, both Tehran and the US-European bloc are trying to lay blame for the inability to agree on talks on the other side.

2. Talks about talks will now be put on the back-burner while the Iranian regime concentrates on the Presidential election in June.

2. Most importantly, both sides are signalling that --- despite the effective suspension of diplomatic efforts --- they are ready to pick up the negotiations in the autumn.

Biden's statement follows the pointed message of Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani on Monday that there are no "red lines" against direct talks with the Americans. What's more, Larijani invoked the name of the Supreme Leader in making that statement.

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Iran Live Coverage: Imprisoned Journalists, Elections, & the BBC

Journalists Arrested Last Weekend2136 GMT: Currency Watch. Radio Farda supports the report in Kalemeh (see 1746 GMT) that the Iranian Rial has dropped sharply to break the 40000:1 level vs. the US dollar.

The site also says that the price of gold is rising, with a 15% premium on prepayment for gold coins to be delivered next month.

2036 GMT: Press Watch. The mother of journalist Saba Azarpeyk, speaks of her daughter's arrest:

Fifteen to twenty minutes after Saba left the house, someone knocked on the door, I asked who it was and I heard Saba saying, "Mum don't open the door, they do not have a warrant." After some very tense moments, she was taken down to the car.

Then my son arrived, and one of the officials that was standing behind the door slapped him on the face several times.

The mother then ran to Azarpeyk as she was being taken away and urged her to remain strong.

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Iran Analysis: The Real Explanation for the Delay in New Nuclear Talks

Last week, a couple of curious stories emerged about the proposed resumption of nuclear talks, suspended since a high-level meeting in June in Moscow, between Iran and the 5+1 Powers (US, Britain, Germany, Russia, France, and China). 

Julian Borger of The Guardian declared, "Nuclear Talks with Iran Delayed" because of "internal wrangling" in Tehran. Laura Rozen echoed, "Iran Seen Stalling on Date for Nuclear Talks".

There had to be an explanation --- beyond the blame of Tehran for "internal wrangling" and the declarations of Western officials --- for the clash between Iran's public position welcoming new discussions and the line fed to Borger and Rozen.

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