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Entries in Saeed Mortazavi (70)

Thursday
May172012

Iran Feature: The Week in Civil Society --- Attacks on Journalists, A Death Bounty for A Rapper, A Woman Dragged from the Book Fair (Arseh Sevom)

Claimed photo of women being dragged from the Tehran International Book Fair for inappropriate dress


Summary: 126 Iranian journalists signed a letter protesting the arrests and harassment of journalists, sending it to the head of the judiciary and the Speaker of Parliament. After a cartoonist faced lashing for his drawing of an MP, colleagues all over the world launched a campaign of support. An MP assaulted a journalist who asked a sensitive question. Publishers banned from attending the International Book Fair received support from a prisoner of conscience. Women were targeted for bad hejab. The Minister of Communicatoins calls for government institutions to host their email and sites on domestic servers. Rapper Shahin Najafi wakes up to find a price on his head, offered by an anonymous Gulf resident, after his new song satirising the wait for the 10th Imam hit the airwaves. And more...

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Monday
May142012

The Latest from Iran (14 May): Will a Nuclear Drawing Unsettle the Talks?

The drawing that "proves" Iran is pursuing nuclear weapons --- a "high-explosives containment chamber" at the Parchin military site


2011 GMT: All-Is-Well Alert. Iran's Statistical Center has said that in the Iranian year ending on 19 March, the jobless rate fell 1.2% to 12.3%.

The Center said that by March 2013, the government plans to reduce unemployment rate to 7%, investing around $200 billion to create one million jobs a year. It added that by 2015, the Government may send nearly 100,000 Iranians to work abroad.

1948 GMT: Nuclear Watch. We have expected back-channel discussions between the public resumption of talks between Iran and the 5+1 Powers (US, UK, Germany, France, China, and Russia) in Istanbul in mid-April and the next meeting in Baghdad on 23 May. Laura Rozen offers confirmation:

The European Union’s Helga Schmid and Iran’s Ali Bagheri held meetings in Geneva May 6-7, a diplomatic source [said].

The deputy nuclear negotiators for the P5+1 and Iran respectively are due to hold a second meeting this week, but I’ve been asked to hold off reporting the date and location as negotiators are seeking to minimize publicity for the preparatory talks. Schmid and Bagheri are meeting to prepare the agenda for the next round of Iran nuclear talks due to be held May 23rd in Baghdad.

Western negotiators have made clear that when it comes to the exceedingly sensitive Iran nuclear negotiations process, they believe more can be accomplished in such quiet meetings.

But notable as well is the fact that no scuttlebutt from the first known face-to-face talks between Schmid and Bagheri since Istanbul has leaked from the Iranian side, as has occurred in many similar past cases. That may be a sign of Tehran’s efforts to maintain the positive atmosphere and a modicum of trust and goodwill that was established at the last round of talks in Istanbul last month.

The lead U.S. negotiator with the P5+1 group, Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs Wendy Sherman, did not participate in the Schmid-Bagheri discussions this past week, I was told. But American officials have made clear that she is open to do so — and that they have zero plans to advertise it if and when she does.

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Friday
May112012

Iran Snap Analysis: Isolating Ahmadinejad

Even the rumour smacked of disinformation and/or the desparation of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's camp. Tehran Emrooz --- linked to the President's conservative rival, Tehran Mayor Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf --- was claiming that Ahmadinejad would seek to become Mayor, a post he held from 2003 to 2005, when his Presidential term ended in 2013. The post would allow Ahmadinejad to hold a portion of the power that he craves, while he and his allies tried to put a "close friend" into the Presidency.

Probably a story which is more smoke than substance, but that smoke is still significant. So was Ahmadinejad's supposed defiance on Thursday as he vigorously defended the second phase of his subsidy cuts plans, still to be implemented five months after officials said it was imminent, and declared that his critics were covering up their failures as they slandered him.

That defiance tipped off weakness, rather than strength. The President is a fighter, of course, but here he was fighting to save the centrepiece of his economic table, rocking amidst both political fighting and the inflation surrounding the first stage of the subsidy cuts.

Equally significant is that Ahmadinejad, as he is battling in this area, is saying little or nothing on another. Instrumental in the effort to get nuclear talks in 2009 and to keep the prospect alive in 2010-2011, the President is silent in 2012. Given his nature, I doubt that is Ahmadinejad's choice --- he has been cut out of the nuclear issue.

Some will say that Ahmadinejad is "safe" because of the damaging information that he holds --- and has threatened to reveal --- on other members of the Islamic Republic's elite. That could well be true. It looks, for example, as that option of "I'll Take You Down with Me" has saved his advisors such as Saeed Mortazavi and Mohammad Sharif Malekzadeh from prosecution.

But "safe" is not the same as dominant or even influential. The President is being squeezed on a daily basis. Next year, he could be yesterday's man. The more interesting question, however, is whether he already is.

Wednesday
May092012

Iran Feature: The Week in Civil Society --- From Forbidden Books to a Shrinking Middle Class (Arseh Sevom)

Official Book Fair and Unofficial Books

The annual International Book Fair of Tehran opened on 1 May and will continue to the 11th, even as the list of forbidden books grows. Authorities collect “illegal copies", sometimes turning them into paper paste (recounted in our review of 23 April). Meanwhile, a shadow book fair has sprung up featuring the forbidden texts.

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Tuesday
May082012

The Latest from Iran (8 May): The Political Fight Over Subsidy Cuts

See also Iran Feature: The Battle to Become Speaker of Parliament
The Latest from Iran (7 May): The Muddle of the New Parliament


Ali Larijani & Mahmoud Ahmadinejad1920 GMT: Oil Watch. Reinhard Baumgarten reports on Iran falling behind Iraq as oil exporter and interviews Sadegh Zibakalam about the disadvantages for Tehran in its deal to export to India.

1542 GMT: Oil Watch. More on the private manoevures behind US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's public encouragement, in her three-day visit, of India to cut oil imports from Iran....

Four Indian officials have told Bloomberg that supplies will be slashed by 20%, given the prospect of alternative supplies from Saudi Arabia.

The officials said India will lower its purchases to 14 million tons from the 17.5 million metric tons in the year ending 31 March.

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Wednesday
Apr182012

Iran Feature: The Week in Civil Society --- From The "Butcher of the Press" to Speaking Out Against War (Arseh Sevom)

"Raising Their Voices": Iranian Intellectuals Speak Out Against War


Our colleagues at Arseh Sevom, a non-governmental organisation promoting civil society in Iran, bring us their weekly review of developments within the country:

Butcher of the Press leaves…Not!

Regular readers of Arseh Sevom’s weekly review won’t be surprised to find that former Tehran prosecutor, Saeed Mortazavi, is topping headlines once again. This time with rumors of his resignation after a contested promotion to director of the biggest financial holding organization in Iran, Social Security Organization [Sazman-e Tamin-e Ejtema’ie].

Mortazavi is no stranger to controversy and condemnation. After the 2009 demonstrations against the flawed presidential elections, he was summoned for a hearing in connection with  atrocities that occurred at Kahrizak prison. Dismayed parliamentarians threatened that his promotion, instead of punishment, would mean the impeachment of his boss, the Minister of Labor.

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Monday
Apr162012

The Latest from Iran (16 April): A Common Understanding?

See also Iran Special: Why Both Sides Shifted in Nuclear Talks --- And What Comes Next
The Latest from Iran (15 April): A Setback for the President


1755 GMT: Supreme Leader Watch. Former Government spokesman Gholam Hossein Elham has declared that Ayatollah Khamenei is dealing with "slackers" on the Expediency Council because idle people disturb the Iranian system.

1750 GMT: All the President's Men. Yet more confusion in the case of President Ahmadinejad's advisor Saeed Mortazavi and his appointment as head of the Social Security Fund (see 0830 and 1203 GMT)....

Gholam Ali Haddad Adel --- MP, former Speaker of Parliament, and member of the Supreme Leader's inner circle --- has insisted that Mortazavi is adhering to his promise as head of the Fund amidst criticism from MPs of the appointment.

President Ahmadinejad has reportedly rejected Mortazavi's resignation.

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Sunday
Apr152012

The Latest from Iran (15 April): A Setback for the President

Nikahang Kowsar on the dance at the nuclear talks --- European Union's Catherine Ashton to Iran's Saeed Jalili, "This time you have to dance to our bidding"

See also Iran Analysis: The Nuclear Talks --- The Effectiveness of Sanctions, The Effectiveness of Iran's Uranium Enrichment
The Latest from Iran (14 April): The Nuclear "Talks About More Talks" Open in Istanbul


1922 GMT: Supreme Leader Watch. Ayatollah Khamenei has laid down the law for his officials --- "Giving preference to society's advantages instead of personal benefits helps the progress of the country."

1915 GMT: CyberWatch. Mohammand Hassan Hosseinpour, an Internet specialist in the Revolutionary Guards, has assured people who might be worried about diminished Web provision under Iran's plans: a "Basij network" will be launched for easy access in the "national intranet".

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Friday
Apr132012

The Latest from Iran (13 April): Before the Nuclear Show

President Ahmadinejad greeting an unseen crowd in Hormozgan Province in southern Iran


1644 GMT: Your Tehran Friday Prayer Update. Ayatollah Mohammad Emami Kashani has the podium today, and he is in a nuclear mood: “As the [Leader of the Islamic Revolution] Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei has said and other Iranian officials have reiterated, the work done in the field of nuclear energy [in Iran] is not meant for making nuclear weapons."

Just to make sure the US, European powers, China, and Russia got the message before tomorrow's talks, Emami Kashani emphasised, “These activities are for scientific purposes; you must realize and believe this."

However, while the West ponders this reassurance, this passage from Emami Kashani is more interesting to me --- cheerleading for the Supreme Leader's "Year of National Production", worry about the economy, or both?:

Everyone must enjoy their lives. There should be jobs in society, [and] the youth should be able to marry and have good living and housing conditions; therefore, production is important....Honest investors must invest in order to serve the country and benefit from its profits. Jobs must be promoted qualitatively and quantitatively and everyone at any level should [be able to] lead a clean life.

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Tuesday
Apr102012

The Latest from Iran (10 April): Talks in Istanbul, Challenges to Ahmadinejad at Home

A young woman holds up a sign of protest during a visit by President Ahmadinejad to Bandar Abbas, "We, the Youth, are Unemployed"

See also Iran Analysis: A 4-Point Beginner's Guide to the Nuclear Talks
The Latest from Iran (9 April): No Agreement to Nuclear Talks in Turkey...Yet


2020 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Blogger Davood Bahmanabadi has been released on bail after 140 days in Evin Prison.

2000 GMT: Parliament v. President. Back to our opening story of the day (see 0605 GMT) and the Parliamentary pressure on Mahmoud Ahmadinejad....

Fifteen MPs have asked Speaker of Parliament Larijani to summon the President to the Majlis to report on "problems" in the first phase of subsidy cuts, launched in December 2010, and plans for the second phase. Ahmadinejad will also be queried about support for production in the private production sector, and inflation.

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