The Latest from Iran (19 July): Assessing the Opposition

1950 GMT: Clamping Down on a Cleric. Security forces have raided the home of Ayatollah Amjad while the cleric is on a three-day trip to Malaysia.

Ayatollah Amjad has been increasingly critical of the Government since January.

1935 GMT: Elections Watch. Abbas Ali Kadkhodaei, the spokesman for the Guardian Council, has pulled back from a blanket ban on the reformist parties Islamic Iran Participation Front and the Mojahedin of Islamic Revolution, saying that their dissolution has not been declared by the courts.

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Today's Worst Iran Analysis: It's all about (the) US

Esfandiar Rahim-MashaiDavid Ignatius of The Washington Post pronounces on the current crisis between the Supreme Leader and President Ahmadinejad, "When there’s political upheaval in Tehran, it’s often interwoven with the explosive question of possible outreach to the United States."

In other words, the dispute is all because "[Ahmadinejad right-hand man] Esfandiar Rahim] Mashaei is said to have initiated a series of contacts attempting to open a dialogue with the United States".

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The Latest from Iran (1 March): In Prison...And On the Streets?

2050 GMT: Deutsche Welle carries this account from a participant in the protest in Tehran (translation by Tehran Bureau):

The number of security forces today in Tehran was higher than February 14 and 20. There were a lot of plainclothesmen. The security forces hit the protesters hard in an attack at Vali Asr Crossroads and closed off the area. They fired a few shots in the air and the crowd dispersed.

We waited for half an hour in one of the side streets of Vali Asr and then exited with a few others. In the dark and cold, we started walking toward Enghelab and Azadi Squares. The entire crowd were walking toward the west on the sidewalks, but there were a lot of plainclothesmen among the people....Every now and then, security forces would politely take someone aside and check their camera, cell phone, bag, or wallet and then take a picture. I could see people on scaffolds, taking people's pictures from a wide angle after a minute's pause.

Right before Navab Avenue, the crowd got denser and security forces moved to disperse them. People quickly turned down side streets. Some said there were clashes on Navab and they don't want people to get there. We went toward Tohid like the other times. Then, we went toward Azadi and saw that people were moving away from the avenue because there were clashes down there. People were being attacked by security forces and plainclothesmen....

Security forces had brutally attacked protesters. Some people told us they had fired shots in the air repeatedly.

I can't say how many people were there. But I can tell you that half the people on the sidewalks were security forces and Basij.

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The Latest from Iran (7 February): Anticipating 25 Bahman

1800 GMT: No Nerves Here. Both Mohammad Javad Larijani, the head of the human rights section of Iran's judiciary, and Gholam-Hossein Elham of the Guardian Council have spoken loudly about the respect for authority in the country.

Javad Larijani said democracy lovers should kiss the Supreme Leader's hands for saving the country from a "putsch": Ayatollah Khamenei is the "anchor of democracy".

Elham asserted that whoever opposes the Supreme Leader "will be destroyed". Even if Ayatollah Khamenei got more power, this does not smell of dictatorship.

He added a warning for Parliament: if the Guardian Council says something is illegal, Majlis must obey and cannot change laws.

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The Latest from Iran (28 January): The President Protects His Man

1020 GMT: Claim of Day. The hard-line Raja News writes that Mehdi Karroubi went to Behesht-e Zahra cemetery today to honor post-election victims but fled after families protested.

1015 GMT: Sedition Watch. Ayatollah Alamolhoda, the Friday Prayer leader in Mashhad, has proclaimed that some fitna (sedition) leaders and activists are trying to "desecrate" the Supreme Leader.

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Iran Document: The Indictment for the Abuses at Kahrizak Prison (Rah-e-Sabz)

A source forwards an English translation, posted on the opposition website Rah-e-Sabz on 5 January, of the Tehran military prosecutor's 27-page indictment against 12 alleged perpretrators of the post-election abuses and killings at the Kahrizak detention centre. The text is introduced with a lengthy analysis:

The full text of the indictment against the accused in the Kahrizak case, signed by the Deputy Military Prosecutor of Tehran, Abbas Parsapour, has recently come to the possession of the Jaras (the Rah-e Sabz (Green Path) Movement). The document, file number 88/4703 and dated 25 Azar 1388 (16 December 2009), is organized in 27 pages. Twelve names appear in this indictment as the accused.

Eleven of the 12 accused who are charged with the crimes in this case are members of the armed forces and one person is a civilian, a hooligan who worked with the law enforcement forces. The highest ranking accused in this case is the commander of the Law Enforcement Forces in the Greater Tehran area (Brigadier General Azizollah Rajabzadeh).

The names of several high-ranking officials of the judiciary also appear in the indictment, but apparently these individuals who issued the orders (making the detainees subject to the conditions in the Kahrizak Detention Center) have not been officially acknowledged by this document as the accused.

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WikiLeaks Document & EA Analysis: US Diplomats on Green Movement & Iran's Politics "From Crisis to Stalemate"

Today we post Part 2 of the analysis of the situation in Iran by the US Consulate in Dubai in January 2010. (The first cable was published on EA on Friday.)

It is a must-read document, but it is still an incomplete assessment. The challenge to the regime has never been one of an all-or-nothing contest between Government and Green Movement. The Consulate's attempted analogies with Iran 1978/1979 and Poland in the 1980s are distracting, rather than illuminating.

Instead the current possibilities of change have come through the dynamic between the space for resistance opened up by opposition movements and the space exploited by those manoeuvring within the Iranian system.

That is still true today.

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Wikileaks Iran Special: US Diplomats Assess Green Movement & Politics "From Crisis to Stalemate"

We have now added a special analysis to our posting of Part 2 of the US Consulate in Dubai's analysis in January 2010 of the Green Movement and Iran's political situation. The revised post is at the top of the homepage.

The Latest from Iran (28 November): Politics Does Not Stop

1625 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. The names of four of the seven activists detained in Marivan in Iranian Kurdistan have been published.

1550 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. The Supreme Leader's represetnative to the Revolutionary Guard, Mojtaba Zolnour, has renewed the allegation that the children of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani --- Mehdi Hashemi and Faezeh Hashemi --- were involved in the 2009 "sedition".

The regime has elevated its threats in recent weeks to arrest Mehdi Hashemi, who is currently in London.

1510 GMT: Press Watch. The managing directors of the conservative newspapers Fararu and Tabnak have been convicted of charges in a Tehran court.

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Iran Analysis: Khamenei v. Ahmadinejad? (Sahimi)

In a lengthy article in Tehran Bureau covering events from summer 2009 to the present, Muhammad Sahimi puts forward a picture of a developing contest between the Supreme Leader and President Ahmadinejad and concludes, The struggle and the gaping fissures that have emerged among the conservatives led by Khamenei, on the one hand, and Ahmadinejad and (presumably) the Guard hardliners, on the other, will bring their eventual downfall. This prospect is magnified by the administration's utter incompetence and corruption." I differ from the analysis on the key point of the Supreme Leader leading a conservative blog against the President and the Revolutionary Guard --- my assessment is more that Khamenei is manoeuvring between contending factions, trying to hold them together --- and I think the portrayal of the politics, especially the nuclear talks with the "West", is incomplete. However, this is a wide-ranging review of the tensions EA has been noting for more than a year....

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