Iraq Analysis: Kurdistan's Contest with Prime Minister al-Maliki Heats Up (Van Wilgenburg)

Nuri al-Maliki and Massoud BarzaniIn recent weeks, tensions between Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's State of Law Alliance and the Kurdistan Democratic Party of Massoud Barzani have been elevated in the media. This is not a just a battle of rhetoric, however --- there are serious issues over oil, disputed territory, the fugitive Iraqi Vice President Tariq Hashimi, and weapons. Al-Maliki's MPs have accused Barzani of trying to weaken the Iraqi army and seeking to take over Kirkuk by armed force.

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Wikileaks and Iraq: Comparing the Threats from Saudi Arabia and Iran

What is notable here is the divergence between the analysis of the Saudi and Iranian threats to Iraq and the recommendations for the way forward.

Proposed US action on the Saudis is limited to "keeping up the pressure on Egypt and Saudi Arabia in particular to return their Ambassadors [to Baghdad]" and general invocation to "caution Iraq's Arab neighbors against efforts to inflame Shia-Sunni anxieties through their support for Sunni parties and by Shia-critical media attacks".

In contrast, Tehran retains its special place as Number One Adversary, its presence used to link Iraq with others in the area in an American partnership: "We will need to flesh out ideas for a post-GCC [Gulf Cooperation Council] security architecture that includes Iraq more fully, develops ways to contain Iranian regional influence, and shapes the special position Iraq will likely occupy in the Gulf in ways that further our interests and those of our Gulf partners."

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